Week 9 vs. Green Bay Packers
Travis Kelce had an off-game last week, finishing 4-27 with a fumble. It's his second game this season below 30 receiving yards, something he's only done 13 times in his career, and only two times since 2018. Kelce's numbers are much lower than they were last year as he's averaging 70.0 yards per game compared to 94.4 in 2020. But 2020's pace was a difficult one to maintain, and Kelce is still having a strong season compared to other tight ends. Even though he hasn't been quite as dominant, he's still a must-start option at the position. This week he gets an OK matchup vs. the Packers, who are 20th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to TEs.
Week 8 vs. New York Giants
Travis Kelce saw a team-high 12 targets last week, finishing with a solid 7-65. It wasn't a monster performance from Kelce, but it's a good game considering the Chiefs' passing struggles last week. Kelce has been very steady in PPR formats, catching at least six passes for 50 yards in all but one game this season. His touchdowns have slowed down as he's scored just once in his last five games, but he's still just one off from the lead league in that category at his position. He gets an OK matchup against the Giants this week who are 14th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends. Kelce should continue to be trusted as a must-start TE1 this week.
Week 7 at Tennessee Titans
Travis Kelce fell just short of another 100-yard game last week as he finished 8-99 on 11 targets. Even though it wasn't 100 yards, it was still a great game for the tight end, who has been productive in every game but one this year. He should continue to be productive this week, even though he draws a tough matchup on paper. The Titans have oddly given up the second-fewest receiving yards to tight ends despite allowing the most receiving yards to wide receivers this year. Granted, Tennessee hasn't faced many elite tight ends this season, which is why we think Kelce will be fine. He should be viewed as a must-start TE1 in Week 7.
Week 6 at Washington Football Team
Travis Kelce had a solid outing last week, seeing 10 targets, finishing 6-57-1. It was yet another good game from Kelce, who has at least six receptions and 50+ yards in all but one game this year. He doesn't get a great matchup this week against Washington, who is 10th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to tight ends, but that shouldn't really concern fantasy owners. Washington is far from being a lockdown matchup, and Kelce should be fine. He'll be a must-start option at tight end in Week 6.
Week 5 vs. Buffalo Bills
Travis Kelce had one of his worst games in a long time last week, finishing 4-23 on six targets. In fact, it's his lowest receiving yards in a game since Week 1 of 2018. Kelce couldn't get much done as Tyreek Hill stole the show with 186 yards and three touchdowns. While the dud wasn't great for fantasy owners, we wouldn't expect it to be an indication of anything other than just a bad game. Kelce averaged 96.3 yards in his first three games, he's going to be fine. Kelce does get a tough matchup against the Bills this week, but he's still a must-start option at tight end in Week 5.
Week 4 at Philadelphia Eagles
Another week, another 100-yard game for Travis Kelce. Kelce finished 7-104 on a team-high 11 targets in Week 3. That now gives him a 100-yard performance in 11 of his last 14 games, including the playoffs (basically 12 since one game was 98 yards). It's a remarkable run for Kelce, and it's why he's easily the best at his position right now. Expect another strong game from Kelce in Week 4 as he draws an Eagles defense that's allowed the seventh-most receptions to tight ends so far this season. Kelce is a must-start option this week.
Week 3 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Out of his last 13 games (including playoffs), Travis Kelce has seven games with at least seven receptions, 100 yards and a touchdown. He added to that insane streak in Week 2 with a 7-109-1 outing on eight targets. It's truly remarkable not only how dominant Kelce has been, but also how consistent he's been. We expect another strong game from Kelce in Week 3 as he faces the Chargers, a team he had success against last year with a 9-90-1 game. Kelce should be viewed as a must-start tight end in Week 3.
Week 2 @ Baltimore Ravens
Travis Kelce couldn't even finish with 100 yards in Week 1, so clearly, the age has caught up with him. Jokes aside, Kelce had a strong opener, finishing 6-76-2 on seven targets. This week he'll face a Baltimore defense that's fresh off of allowing a 105-yard game to Darren Waller. If Waller can find success against the Ravens, so can Kelce. The Chiefs' tight end will be a must-start option in Week 2. We're projecting him to finish around 100 yards with a strong chance for a touchdown.
Week 1 vs. Cleveland Browns
Travis Kelce is somehow still getting better, setting a career-high in receiving yards (1,416) and touchdowns (11) last season. While it's tough to see him repeating that success exactly in 2021, he should still be in line for another 1,200-yard season in 2021, which would be his fourth year in a row hitting that milestone. He gets a favorable matchup against the Browns in Week 1, but even if it was a bad matchup he'd still be a must-start option. Kelce isn't just one of the best tight ends in fantasy, he's one of the best players, period.
Fantasy Upside
Travis Kelce finished as the top-scoring fantasy tight end for the fifth straight year, after a record-breaking season. Kelce set the record for most receiving yards by a tight end in a single season (1,416), and he even took the final week off. Perhaps even more impressive than his cumulative stats are his consistent week-by-week numbers. He had at least five receptions, 50 receiving yards AND a touchdown in 10 of his 15 games last year. He also averaged an absurd 9.7 targets per game, with at least 10 targets in nine games. If you extend that into the playoffs, he had at least 10 targets in 12-of-18 games.
Fantasy Downside
Kelce will turn 32 early on in the 2021 season, which is the age we start to see tight end production decline. Since 2000, nearly 90% of the peak seasons from tight ends take place prior to the season they turn 32. In other words, it’ll be tough for Kelce to match his career-best season from last year when he set personal highs in receptions, yards and touchdowns.
2021 Bottom Line
While Kelce may not quite match the output he had last year, he’ll come close. We have him projected for slightly lower numbers, but he’s still the safest tight end off the board. He’s seen 100+ targets in six straight seasons and should make that seven by the end of the year. He’s worth a first-round draft pick. And if you don’t like the idea of drafting a TE that high, just imagine him as a WR. Kelce would’ve finished as the WR3 last season. He’s about as safe as it gets at tight end, which is an extremely volatile position outside of a handful of players.
