Week 6 vs. Denver Broncos
In every game Travis Kelce has played this season, he's led the team in targets, and that trend continued last week as he finished 10-67-1 on 11 targets. Kelce's 11 targets and 10 receptions are both season highs. Kelce has also caught a touchdown in three of his four games this season. Kelce should keep up his high level of production as he draws a favorable matchup against the Broncos this week. Denver is 31st in aFPA to tight ends this season. Plus, with Taylor Swift's movie coming out on Friday, Kelce might want to put up a big game on Thursday night. Kelce should be viewed as a must-start TE1 this week.
Week 5 at Minnesota Vikings
Travis Kelce once again led all Chiefs players in targets in Week 4, getting nine looks. He finished 6-60-0 as he failed to score in a game for the first time this season. Kelce leads all Chiefs players in targets, receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns this season, and that's all despite missing a game in Week 1. Kelce will continue to be the focus of this offense moving forward, which means he'll continue to be a strong play at tight end in fantasy. This week he gets a decent matchup vs. the Vikings (22nd aFPA), but the matchup doesn't really matter for Kelce. He's a must-start TE1 every week he's active.
Week 4 at New York Jets
Travis Kelce made sure to impress Taylor Swift in Week 3. With Swift watching from the stands, Kelce finished with a nice stat line of 7-69-1 on eight targets. In the two games Kelce has played this season, he's led the team in targets. We expect that trend to continue given how the Chiefs have utilized their WR corps so far this season. This week Kelce takes on the Jets, a team that has given up the 3rd-most average fantasy points to tight ends so far this season. Kelce should be viewed as a must-start option at TE in Week 4.
Week 3 vs Chicago Bears
Travis Kelce had a welcome return after missing Week 2. Kelce saw a team-high nine targets, finishing with four receptions for 26 yards and a touchdown. It wasn't the most dominant Kelce game we've seen, but a score with nearly double-digit targets is promising considering he's coming off of a knee injury. Kelce faces the Bears in Week 3, but honestly the matchups don't matter much when it comes to him. Kelce should be viewed as a must-start TE1 every week.
Week 2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Travis Kelce is expected to return in Week 2 after missing Week 1 with a knee injury. Kelce's absence ended a 143-game playing streak. Patrick Mahomes continued to target tight ends in Kelce's absence as Noah Gray and Blake Bell combined for a 5-43-1 stat line in Week 1. And given the Chiefs' troubles at wide receiver in the opening game, Kelce's return will be a welcome one. Assuming he's healthy enough to play, Kelce should be viewed as a must-start option at TE in a decent matchup vs. the Jaguars.
Fantasy Upside
Travis Kelce finished as the TE1 in 2022 by a wide margin, he finished as TE2 in 2021, TE1 in 2020, TE1 in 2019, TE1 in 2018, TE2 in 2017, and you get the idea. Last season he set career highs in targets (152), receptions (110) and touchdowns (12). Not only were the totals amazing, but Kelce was incredibly consistent with at least 50 receiving yards in 14 of his 17 games. And in one of the three games he didn’t top 50 yards, he scored four touchdowns. With a similar inexperienced WR corps in Kansas City for 2023, Kelce should see a ton of action his way again.
Fantasy Downside
Kelce is getting up there in age as he’ll be 34 years old less than a month into the NFL season. He’s also coming off an incredible season where he set career highs in everything but yards, so managers should expect some drop off in production. Our projections have him finishing closer to what he did in 2021 rather than 2022.
2023 Bottom Line
Kelce is a strong bet to finish as the TE1 in fantasy for yet another season. In fact, there’s a strong debate to be had in making Kelce the No. 1 overall pick in redraft leagues. He’s so incredibly consistent, and is a person who can almost single-handedly win fantasy leagues. According to ESPN, Kelce was rostered on 21.4% of championship teams last season, which was fourth-highest of any player.
Week 17 vs. Denver Broncos
Travis Kelce shined once again last week as he led the Chiefs in targets with eight, finishing 6-113. In fact, Kelce finished with 113 of the Chiefs' 225 passing yards last week. It was also his second game in a row with 100 receiving yards, and his sixth such game this season. This week Kelce faces a Broncos defense he played earlier in the year when he had a game of four catches for 71 yards on nine targets. There's not much else to say about Kelce. If you're playing in your fantasy football championship this week, Kelce likely got you there. He's a must-start option at TE in Week 17.
Week 16 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Travis Kelce caught all 10 of his targets last week for 105 yards. It was Kelce's fifth game this season with at least 100 receiving yards (plus he had games of 92 and 98 yards). He has a chance to top 100 yards again this week as gets a favorable matchup against the Seahawks. Seattle has given up the second-most average fantasy points to tight ends this season. Kelce is already a must-start option, but a favorable matchup is always nice to see.
Week 15 at Houston Texans
Travis Kelce had another solid outing last week, finishing with four receptions for 71 yards on nine targets. Kelce has topped 50 receiving yards in every game but one this season, and has hit at least 70 receiving yards in eight games (out of 13). He also has at least four receptions in every single game this year. This week he gets a fine matchup against the Texans (22nd aFPA). He should be viewed as a must-start option at tight end in Week 15.
Week 14 at Denver Broncos
Travis Kelce didn't have a great game last week. He had a season-low in targets (6), finishing 4-56 with a lost fumble. While it wasn't Kelce's strongest game, it's far from a concerning performance. The Chiefs simply didn't pass the ball as much as Mahomes had a season-low 27 pass attempts with just 16 completions. We could once again see some lower passing numbers from the Chiefs this week in a tough matchup vs. the Broncos, but Kelce will be just fine. He should be viewed as a must-start TE1 in Week 14.
