Week 2 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Travis Kelce proved his worth in Week 1 with a dominating performance. Kelce led all Chiefs players in targets with nine, and finished 8-121-1. He has 30 100-yard games since 2014, which is 10 more than any other tight end in that span. And two of those 100-yard games came last season against the Chargers — his opponent in Week 2. The Chargers struggled to keep Darren Waller in check in Week 1 (4-79) so Kelce is in a good position to have another dominant game. He should be viewed as a must-start player in Week 2.
Week 1 at Arizona Cardinals
A lot changed in Kansas City's offense this offseason, but Travis Kelce is still here. While his numbers decreased from 2021 compared to 2020, he was still one of the best options at tight end. We don't see that changing in 2022 as Kelce has shown no major signs of slowing down. If anything, the departure of Tyreek Hill could even open the door for some more targets. Kelce does open the season against a tough Cardinals defense that allowed the third-fewest average fantasy points to tight ends last year. But Kelce is a must-start option at the tight end position.
2022 Fantasy Upside
Travis Kelce has been one of the most dominant tight ends in the history of fantasy football. Since 2016, Kelce has finished as TE1, TE2, TE1, TE1, TE1 and TE2. He’s had six consecutive seasons with at least 1,000 receiving yards with an average of 1,211.5. He’ll continue to be a featured part of this offense this season, especially after the departure of Tyreek Hill. In fact, it’s highly likely he ends up leading the Chiefs in targets, a team that’s had the 4th-most pass attempts in the league since Patrick Mahomes took over in 2018.
2022 Fantasy Downside
While Kelce was still dominant last season, he did see a significant dropoff in production. He had fewer receptions per game (7.0 to 5.8), receiving yards per game (94.4 to 70.3) and scored fewer touchdowns while playing one less game. Kelce also turns 33 this season, which is when we start to see tight ends drop off in production. The Chiefs also added some additional weapons this offseason like JuJu Smith-Schuster and rookie Skyy Moore who could eat into Kelce’s underneath work.
2022 Bottom Line
While Kelce’s production did dip last year, that speaks more to how dominant his 2020 season was rather than anything else. Kelce should be in line for another 1,000-yard season this year. We’re projecting him to finish with lower numbers than he did a year ago, but it’s not like he’s going to vanish. Kelce should still be viewed as one of the most elite options at tight end heading into 2022. He’ll be in the conversation to finish as TE1 for yet another year.
Week 17 at Cincinnati Bengals
Travis Kelce was unable to play last week as he remained on the COVID/Reserve list. He was activated from the list earlier this week, though, so he should be good to go in Week 17. Although like we saw with Tyreek Hill last week, it can sometimes take players a game or so to get back up to speed. However, with Kelce it's difficult not to trust him heading into Week 17. The tight end position is a shallow one, and Kelce is easily one of the best options out there. He should be viewed as a must-start option heading into Week 17 against the Bengals. Cincy has given up the 7th-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends this year. Over the past four weeks, they've given up 423 yards to tight ends, the most in the league and over a 100-yard average.
Week 16 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Travis Kelce was placed on the Chiefs' COVID/Reserve list heading into his Week 16 matchup vs. the Steelers. There's a chance he's able to play by the time the game starts, but there's also a chance he doesn't play. Kelce should be trusted as a must-start TE1 if he's active. But obviously fantasy owners should leave him their bench if he's not cleared by Sunday.
Week 15 at Los Angeles Chargers
Travis Kelce struggled again last week, finishing with 27 receiving yards for the second game in a row. It's the fourth time this season he's finished below 30 receiving yards in a game, something he never did a year ago. Although it's not too surprising considering Patrick Mahomes threw a season-low 24 times, and the Chiefs pulled their starters in a blowout. Still, it sucks to see Kelce's numbers dip so low. He's gone from averaging 94.4 yards per game last season to 67.3 yards this season. Despite his decrease in production, he's still been one of the more successful tight ends this year. And he has a chance to show that this week in a favorable matchup vs. the Chargers. One of Kelce's three 100-yard games this season came against the Chargers earlier in the year. The Chargers have given up the sixth-most average fantasy points to tight ends this year. Kelce is in a bit of a slump, but he should bounce back in Week 15. He should be viewed as a must-start tight end this week.
Week 14 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Travis Kelce saw a team-high eight targets last week, but wasn't able to do a whole lot with a 3-27 stat line. It's his third game this season below 30 receiving yards, a mark he never dipped below a season ago. Kelce is averaging about 24 yards less per game than he did in 2020. But Kelce's 2020 pace was always going to be hard to maintain. Kelce is still the No. 1 scoring tight end this season. He should bounce back from an off-game as he gets a favorable matchup vs. the Raiders this week. Kelce dominated Las Vegas earlier in the year, finishing 8-119, a season-high in receiving yards. Even beyond his own success, this is a favorable matchup as the Raiders have given up the second-most average fantasy points to tight ends. Kelce will be a must-start option in Week 14.
Week 13 vs. Denver Broncos
Travis Kelce didn't have a monster game in the Chiefs' last outing but turned in a solid performance of 5-74 on eight targets. He's had at least five receptions and 50 yards in every game but two this year, giving him a strong double-digit floor in PPR formats. He'll get a tough matchup against the Broncos this week, who have allowed the seventh-fewest receptions, seventh-fewest receiving yards and just one touchdown to tight ends this year. Despite the tough matchup, though, Kelce should easily be viewed as a must-start option in Week 13. He's been too productive of a player at his position to worry about matchups.
Week 11 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Travis Kelce had a vintage Travis Kelce game last week, finishing 8-119 on 10 targets. It's Kelce's first 100-yard game this season since Week 3. Although Kelce hasn't been quite as productive as he was a year ago (averaging 20 yards per game less), he's still been a reliable option with eight games of 5+ receptions and 50+ yards this year. Kelce very rarely has a really bad game, and that's why he should be viewed as a must-start TE every single week. He gets a middle-of-the-road matchup vs. the Cowboys this week, but Kelce is essentially matchup proof. Start him with confidence.
Week 10 @ Las Vegas Raiders
Travis Kelce finished 5-68-1 on eight targets last week, which is a really good performance considering how much Patrick Mahomes struggled in that game. It was Kelce's sixth game (out of nine) with at least 60 receiving yards this season. We'd expect another great game from Kelce in Week 10 as he gets a favorable matchup vs. the Raiders. Las Vegas has oddly been tough on WRs this year, but not TEs. The Raiders are giving up the third-most aFPA to the position. With Kelce already being a great option, the favorable matchup is just a bonus. Kelce should be viewed as a must-start TE1 in Week 10.
