Week 4 vs. Miami Dolphins
Remember what happened in the Saints' backfield last season when it went from a three-man RBBC to two with the Adrian Peterson trade? Well, something similar has happened this year in New England with Rex Burkhead going on IR. Only Sony Michel and James White remain. Michel should dominate carries, with White dominating passing-down work. This is still a backfield that produced 48 total touchdowns in this offense over the past two years, despite early-season struggles. Plus, the Patriots are home favorites against a Dolphins defense ranked just 24th in aFPA to RBs through three weeks. They also have a large implied team total of 27.5 points. This adds up to Michel being no worse than a flex option in all formats moving forward.
Week 3 at Detroit Lions
The Patriots have the second-highest implied team total of 30 points for Week 3. The Lions are also 28th in PPR points allowed to RBs this season after getting gashed by Matt Breida last week and Isaiah Crowell and Bilal Powell in Week 1. New England's game plan for RB usage against Jacksonville largely matched its AFC Championship game blueprint, meaning much more work for James White than usual. What was promising is Sony Michel matched White with 11 touches, despite negative game script. We need to see more consistent usage from Michel week to week before starting him, but he's a definite buy low this week.
Week 2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Rex Burkhead is on the injury report with a concussion this week. Jeremy Hill is out for the year with a torn ACL. Sony Michel could make his debut this week, but having never played an NFL down, it's difficult to predict what kind of volume Belichick will give him. He is best suited as a bench stash for Week 2.
Week 1 vs. Houston Texans
Sony Michel has been limited in practice this week and there's a chance he could either be deactivated Sunday or on a limited snap count. He's too risky to play until he's back to full practice participation from his preseason knee injury. The upside is substantial though in future weeks. Do not drop him.
Fantasy Upside
Sony Michel's upside is tied to the fact that New England spent its first-round pick on him in the draft, a rare move for Bill Belichick to do with a running back. That tells us they loved him. If Michel is to be used in the Dion Lewis role, he should produce RB2 numbers with upside from there. He is an electric dual-threat prospect out of the backfield.
Fantasy Downside
Michel required a knee procedure in training camp, which has forced him to miss the preseason. It has put him behind in a crowded backfield that features Rex Burkhead, James White and now Jeremy Hill moving up the depth chart. In addition, his fumble issues in college could result in a quick Belichick hook to the bench if carried over to the NFL.
2018 Bottom Line
Michel will have to show he's healthy and getting work with the first team this preseason before you can confidently select him in drafts. His ADP after the injury is still around the round 5-6 turn, which means you're still chasing upside at that point with a very low floor.
