Week 17 vs. New York Jets
The Patriots should send their starters out for a full 60 minutes this week in an effort to lock up a first-round bye in the playoffs. New England also has an outside chance at home field advantage with a win and Chiefs and Chargers losses. Because of this, New England is among the highest implied team totals this week at 29.25 points after being installed as almost two-touchdown favorites. New York ranks just around league average in aFPA to RBs. Sony Michel has been the undisputed early-down back in this offense, racking up at least 18 touches in four of his last five games. That volume keeps him on the RB2 radar, despite no passing game production, with upside from there when he finds the end zone.
Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Patriots certainly have not looked like the Patriots over the past two weeks, but against the Bills this week, New England still has the third-highest implied team total on the Week 16 slate of 28.75 points. Buffalo ranks third in aFPA to QBs but only 25th in aFPA to RBs. So that's good news for Patriots RBs, but this is still a three-man RBBC with Rex Burkhead back in the mix. That has lowered Sony Michel's weekly floor, and with James Develin possibly poaching goal-line carries, Michel must be viewed as a touchdown-or-bust risk.
Week 15 at Pittsburgh Steelers
As usual, there are a lot of reasons to like Patriots players in fantasy this week. New England has an implied team total of 27.5, among the highest in the league. Only Baltimore is averaging more offensive plays per game this season than New England, and only Baltimore and Dallas have more offensive plays over the past three weeks. Plus, this game has an over/under of 52, among the highest of Week 15. Pittsburgh ranks 13th in aFPA to RBs though, and with Sony Michel losing goal-line carries to James Develin of late, it makes him a very risky RB2, as he's not adding anything in the passing game.
Week 14 at Miami Dolphins
The New England Patriots head to Miami with a top five implied team total, facing a defense that ranks just 29th in total defense this season. New England struggled at Hard Rock Stadium surprisingly, but this Dolphins defensive unit doesn't have the pieces it had last year. Miami ranks just 29th in aFPA to RBs. Sony Michel continues to dominate early-down and goalline snaps in this backfield and already had a successful day against the Dolphins earlier this year. Even with Rex Burkhead mixing in, Michel should be viewed as an RB2 in a plus match-up.
Week 13 vs. Minnesota Vikings
The New England Patriots have a healthy implied team total of 27 points this week in a game hovering around an over/under of 50. Minnesota ranks top five in aFPA to RBs, and Rex Burkhead's return clouds Sony Michel's volume. Michel has posted 20+ carries in three of his last five healthy games. Without much passing game usage, that volume is important to maintain RB2 numbers, or he will require scoring each week to post relevant weeks. For Week 13, given these uncertainties, we only feel comfortable calling Michel a FLEX option.
Week 12 at New York Jets
The Patriots come off the bye week motivated to not lose consecutive games, and their implied team total reflects that. New England is tied for the second most expected points on the Sunday-Monday slate at 28.5 points. Plus, the Jets are just 27th in aFPA to RBs. Sony Michel comes off the bye with a modest workload of 12 carries in his last game, when he returned from a mid-season knee injury. Positive game script should lead to another large workload in the rushing attack, like the 25, 18 and 24 rush attempts we saw from him in consecutive games midseason. With an elevated chance to score in this match-up, Michel profiles as an RB2 in standard leagues and FLEX option in PPR formats for Week 12.
Week 10 at Green Bay Packers
The Patriots only have the eighth-highest implied team total of the Sunday slate at 26.5 points, a departure from their usual spot near the top of that weekly list. Perhaps some respect from the oddsmakers against a Titans defense that ranks 6th in aFPA to RBs. Sony Michel continues to practice on a limited basis this week. His status needs to be monitored. We'd consider him a risky FLEX if active in Week 10, given he's likely not to return to a 20+ carry workload immediately as we saw before his injury.
Week 8 vs. Green Bay Packers
In a showdown between Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers in Week 9, expect a lot of points. New England has a monster implied team total of 31.5 points, highest of the week. Sony Michel is trending towards returning, after putting in a limited practice on Friday last week and doing so again Wednesday and Thursday. Hopefully, we get an update either way before early kickoffs on Sunday. The Packers are 14th in aFPA to RBs this season. That's nothing to be worried about. Michel is no worse than a FLEX in Week 9 with a better than average chance to score if he's healthy.
Week 6 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
The Patriots have the highest implied team total of Week 6 at 31.5 points. The Chiefs are bottom five in the league in aFPA to RBs. And with New England down to two RBs in its rotation, the touches for Michel are turning into fantasy gold. 19 and 25 touches the past two games in a high-powered offense with goal-line duties. Michel isn't adding much in the passing game, but these other factors are enough to make him an RB2 moving forward.
Week 5 vs. Indianapolis Colts (TNF)
The Patriots have the highest implied team total for Week 5 at 31 points, coming off a dominant performance against the Dolphins. Indy ranks just 10th in aFPA against RBs, but the Colts offense may have trouble moving the ball with a banged up O-Line and down its best pass-catcher in T.Y. Hilton. That could lead to even more possessions for the Patriots offense and positive game script for Sony Michel. The rookie's impressive Week 4 should give fantasy owners confidence in his workload moving forward. Consider Michel an RB2 with big upside in Week 5 and beyond.
