Week 8 vs Cleveland Browns
Sony Michel may not have broken rushing efficiency metrics in Week 7 after totaling just 42 rushing yards on 19 carries, but he more than salvaged his fantasy week with three rushing touchdowns and ranked as the week's fantasy RB6. Now the RB16 overall through seven games, Michel's touch rate of 64.5% is the second-highest in the NFL among starting running backs.
Week 8 brings the Cleveland Browns to Foxborough, with a matchup that has Michel's name written all over it. Only two teams have allowed more aFPA to running backs than the Browns, and if the Patriots defense continues to effectively shut down both opposing passing and rushing games, Michel should see plenty of carries in a second-half clock-killing effort. The Patriots run the ball inside the 10-yard line at the 11th-highest rate, and due to their speedy pace of play, that's resulted in 27 rushing attempts inside the ten, tied for the second-most behind Baltimore. Michel continues to lack the receiving upside of a number of running backs ranked ahead of him, making him more of a low-end RB1 option in 0.5 PPR scoring formats.
Week 7 at New York Jets
Sony Michel didn't score a touchdown in Week 6 despite two more red zone attempts, and it was the only thing that kept him from finishing as an RB1. Michel led the New England backfield with 50% of the offensive snaps and caught three targets for over 20 yards for the second week in a row to go along with 86 rushing yards. Michel's rushing efficiency hasn't been eye-popping this season, but he continues to receive extremely valuable volume in New England's rushing attack.
The Patriots lost fullback Jakob Johnson to injury during the Giants game and signed tight ends Benjamin Watson and Eric Tomlinson. If both are ready to go come Monday night, Michel and the rest of New England's running back group should benefit. Part of Michel's uninspiring fantasy performance is attributable to poor blocking in front of him, and both tight ends are accomplished blockers. The Jets present a decent run defense, with 23.0 aFPA to running backs that ranks them 13th-best, and that's without standout linebacker C.J. Mosley who's projected to return from injury. Michel should continue to receive enough rushing volume to make him a worthy start, but he's more of a mid-range RB2 than an RB1 this week.
Week 6 vs New York Giants
Sony Michel had his best game of the season in Week 5 against Washington, rushing for 91 yards an a touchdown and finishing the week as the RB8. That bumped him up to the RB25 overall in fantasy, but perhaps most encouraging were the three targets that he turned into 32 receiving yards. It may have been a result of Burkhead's absence, but Michel looked comfortable and effective as a receiver, and signs point to Burkhead missing at least one more week.
The New York Giants are exactly middle-of-the-pack in aFPA to running backs, allowing 24.5 per game to the position, 16th-most. Tight end Ryan Izzo and fullback Jakob Johnson showed improvement in their run blocking in Week 4, while the Patriots offensive line has continued to struggle to block for New England's running backs. Vegas gives the Patriots 31 implied points, which should mean plenty of snaps in the opponent's end zone, where Michel has the second-most attempts among all running backs at 16. With a game script that projects to favor the passing game, temper your expectations a bit for Michel, who should be more of a low-end RB1 for the week.
Week 5 at Washington Redskins
Sony Michel parlayed an uninspiring 6.4 fantasy points into a Week 4 RB44 finish, leaving him as the RB38 through four games. Michel lined up for 45% of New England's offensive snaps, while teammate James White saw 52% of the snaps. Michel was never projected as a target-hog with White, Burkhead, and Harris sharing the backfield, but a single target over four games is concerning for Michel's season-long value. Losing one of the best run-blocking tight ends in the league in Rob Gronkowski, and then missing either one or both of your starting tackles in each game due to injury is definitely not ideal either.
The Patriots face a Washington defense in Week 5 that has allowed the 16th-most aFPA to running backs, about as neutral as a matchup can get. The Patriots do get tight end Benjamin Watson back from his four-game suspension, which should aid the Patriots' run-blocking, and any further development of fullback Jakob Johnson should also help. Michel only saw 45% of the Patriots' offensive snaps last week but dominated touches with 17 to James White's 11. Michel will need to see a larger snap share to be a safe start because his efficiency has been awful. He's at best a low-end RB2 in Week 5.
**UPDATE 10/5 @ 12:00pm: Ben Watson did not make the trip to Washington, which lowers Michel's upside slightly, though he's still an RB2 start.**
Week 4 at Buffalo Bills
Sony Michel is fantasy's RB41 through Week 3, and if you drafted him, you weren't hoping he'd struggle to be an RB3 for your team. With both starting tackles missing for the first two weeks, left tackle Isaiah Wynn out until Week 11, and the recent loss off fullback James Develin to IR, New England's run game has been uncharacteristically ineffective. The Patriots have the 13th-fewest total rushing yards despite running the ball on a ninth-highest 44% of their plays, after a 2018 season that saw them finish fifth in the league in rushing yardage.
Fortunately, Week 4 could be a get-right game for the Patriots rushing offense and Sony Michel. Buffalo has given up the seventh-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to running backs, and if the Patriots identify this as a defensive weakness, they'll tailor their offense to attack it. New England's Week 1 gameplan leaned slightly more on the pass (47% of plays), Week 2 was extremely run-heavy (54%), and Week 3 was extremely pass-heavy (63%) and Michel's weekly snap counts reflect this; he played for 33% of the total snaps in Week 1, 49% in Week 2, and 22% in Week 3. If second-string fullback Jakob Johnson can step up, expect heavy usage for Michel.
Week 3 vs New York Jets
Those counting on Sony Michel to be their RB1 have to be disappointed in the early returns. Michel stands as the RB39, and his expected usage in the passing game simply hasn't come to fruition. The high-scoring New England offense gives Michel legitimate touchdown opportunity, but while he leads Patriots running backs in offensive snap share at 49%, his 0.24 PPR points per snap are nearly half of Burkhead & White's 0.46.
The Patriots play the Jets in Week 3, and despite Vegas giving the Patriots an implied team total of 33 points, this isn't a cake matchup for Michel. The Patriots are potentially without both starting tackles, and while the Jets have allowed an 11th-fewest 106 rushing yards through two games, they've allowed the ninth-most receiving yards to running backs at 115 yards. Michel's lack of involvement in the passing game could equate to more usage of James White and Rex Burkhead. Michel will still get his red zone opportunities, but he'll need to markedly improve his rushing efficiency to rise above RB2 status.
Week 2 at Miami Dolphins
Excitement for Sony Michel began building toward the end of the offseason and rose further when he put together some truly impressive preseason runs. Unfortunately, Week 1 was a disappointment that saw Michel finish as the RB70 with only 33% of the Patriots' offensive snaps, while James White and Rex Burkhead saw 47% and 46% respectively. Even if New England's "game plan offense" tendency meant that they wanted to lean on their primary receiving backs due to Pittsburgh's run-stopping strength, it's still a ding on Michel's value given that he was expected to see a larger role as a receiver out of the backfield.
A Week 2 matchup against the Dolphins should eliminate any concern for Michel's season-long outlook. We project Michel as the RB21 against the Dolphins after they allowed a league-high 265 rushing yards to Baltimore in Week 1. New England's implied team total is 31.25 to Miami's 15.75. Recent history tells us to expect the Patriots game plan to include plenty of red zone rushing attempts to establish a lead. If New England pulls ahead significantly in the first half, we should see them lean more heavily on the run in the second half. Projected volume should make Michel a safe fantasy RB2 with potential for RB1 numbers in a lopsided matchup.
Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Sony Michel missed every 2018 preseason game (as well as Week 1 of the regular season) as he recovered from a minor knee procedure, which slowed his early-season progress as well as his implementation as a pass-catching component of the Patriots' offense. The Patriots utilized Michel more heavily over the last six weeks of the 2018 season before he went fully nuclear in the playoffs, amassing 336 yards and six touchdowns in three games.
Michel faces a Steelers defense in Week 1 that allowed the seventh-fewest rushing yards last season, but allowed 12 rushing touchdowns, tied for 12th-most. Pittsburgh also limited receiving yardage to runnings backs to 515 total yards in 2018, fifth-fewest. The matchup makes Michel a fringe RB2 this week, with some touchdown upside given that the Patriots had 2018's seventh-highest red zone rushing percentage.
Fantasy Upside
Sony Michel totaled 931 yards rushing in 2018 in only 13 regular-season games, and in Week 12-16, he averaged 11.6 fantasy points per game in .5 PPR leagues, 16th-most among running backs in that timeframe. This is especially notable given his surprisingly near-non-existant use as a receiver. Michel then cranked it up a notch in the playoffs, with 336 yards rushing to go along with six touchdowns.
Fantasy Downside
Sony Michel had a "clean-up" procedure on his knee in August of 2018, missing the pre-season as well as Week 1. He then injured his knee in Week 7, missing the following two games. He had another minor procedure in June of 2019, and is expected to start training camp on the PUP list. New England presumably drafted Damien Harris as a hedge against an in-season injury to Michel, but if Harris maximizes his opportunity in preseason, it's conceivable that he eats into Michel's workload. If Michel misses any time with knee issues, there's at least some risk that Harris claims his starting role.
2019 Bottom Line
Michel could end up as a high-end fantasy RB2 in an ideal scenario in 2019, but our projections are bearish on that outcome, ranking him as the RB36. Even if doesn't miss any time with knee issues, he still faces volume concerns in the Patriots' deep running back group. He's a clear fade with an ADP in the fourth round as the RB21, but if his ADP continues to drop into the sixth round or later in the offseason, he would enter value territory.
Week 19 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers go west to east for the second consecutive week to take on the Patriots in New England with a trip to the AFC Championship game on the line. New England is a shrinking four-point favorite with a middle-of-the-pack implied team total of 25.5 points. The Chargers rank top five in aFPA to QBs, which makes Tom Brady a very risky option in the divisional round. That could mean good news for the ground game, as the Chargers rank 24th in aFPA to RBs. Michel should continue to see volume on the ground but remain a touchdown-or-bust option with James White getting most of the passing game work. That makes White the higher floor option in PPR formats.
