Week 1 at Seattle Seahawks
Russell Wilson will start off the 2022 season with a classic "revenge game" narrative against the Seahawks, the only franchise he played for before this season and the one that traded him to Denver this past offseason. On the field, Wilson will face off with a Seattle defense that was firmly mediocre against opposing QBs in fantasy last year, finishing with the 10th most adjusted fantasy points allowed at the position (17.7 aFPA in half-PPR). The Seahawks did not make any big defensive additions in the offseason, meaning Wilson sets up well to finish as a QB1 for fantasy purposes this week. The Broncos have set Wilson up for success with an explosive collection of receiving weapons and a solid offensive line, and the metrics suggest Wilson is a solid play this week. And if he feels like embracing the revenge narrative and taking out some pent up frustration on the Seahawks, fantasy managers surely will not mind. Wilson is a strong QB1 play in Week 1.
2022 Fantasy Upside
There are plenty of reasons to be excited about Russell Wilson's move to Denver after a decade under center in Seattle. For starters, Wilson is finally freed from the conservative clutches of Pete Carroll and his "run-at-all-costs" offensive mentality. Nathaniel Hackett will pair with Wilson after three seasons coordinating high-powered offenses for Aaron Rodgers and Matt LaFleur in Green Bay. It's difficult to envision the coaching change doing anything but bolstering Wilson's passing volume as Carroll regularly insisted on deploying one of the most run-heavy offenses in the league unless backed into a corner (the Seahawks have called a run on 52.5% of snaps the last three seasons, the fourth highest rate in the league). A second reason to be excited is Wilson's plethora of weapons in Denver. Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, and Tim Patrick constitute a formidable receiving core, Albert Okwuegbunam is an exciting prospect at tight end, and second-year running back Javonte Williams has shown serious chops as a pass catcher working alongside Melvin Gordon in the backfield. It's true Wilson is coming off the worst season of his career, but he was limited by a serious finger injury suffered in Week 5 which cost him multiple games and affected his throws in several others. Wilson doesn't run as much as he used to, but he still boasts one of the best deep balls in the NFL and had been a QB1 in fantasy his entire career before last season. If anything, the offseason trade only increases Wilson's odds of remaining a useful QB1 in fantasy for several more seasons. Wilson's pedigree and surrounding circumstances make him a solid low-end QB1 at worst and worthy of drafting after the elite dual-threat options are off the board.
2022 Fantasy Downside
As alluded to above, Wilson has had some concerning stretches over the last two seasons. The Seahawks offense fell apart in the latter half of 2020 after starting red hot, and Wilson ended up throwing a career-high 13 interceptions and logged the second-lowest yards-per-attempt of his career (7.5 YPA). Last season, Wilson broke his finger in Week 5 and missed three games, only to return in Week 10 and post multiple subpar performances, leading to claims he had rushed back too soon or was beginning to decline. Wilson managed some strong performances down the stretch against a weak schedule, but it is about time to start wondering if we have already seen the best from Wilson at this point in his career. The durability and efficiency concerns that have sprung up over the last two seasons cannot be ignored entirely, especially when coupled with the fact that Wilson's rushing contributions will only decrease with age. While Wilson should still have some strong seasons left in him, we have almost certainly already entered the latter stages of his career.
2022 Bottom Line
Wilson should be a viable QB1 yet again in 2022. While age and durability may be questioned more than ever when it comes to Wilson, he still has the ability to light up a defense down the field and collect a few rushing touchdowns to bolster his fantasy profile. Wilson is not an elite option, but he is more than capable of leading a fantasy team to a title in the right situation.
Week 17 vs Lions
Russell Wilson had his fourth multi-touchdown game in the last five weeks last week against the Bears. Unfortunately, his defense betrayed him again. As a result, the Seahawks are now out of the playoffs. This week, he gets the Lions, who have been playing with a lot of fight, especially in recent weeks. Still, Russell has been fighting, despite the low passing numbers. He's a low-end QB1 for the finals.
Week 16 vs Bears
Russell Wilson was shut out from the end zone last week against the Rams for the third time since returning from injury. The loss effectively ended the Seahawks season at 5-9. At least they have a chance to bounce back this week and gain some pride. The Bears are a mess and are actually ranked 28th against opposing fantasy quarterbacks. Wilson may have some streaming value this week. (It is so weird writing Russell Wilson and streaming value in the same sentence, but here we are.)
Week 15 vs Rams
Russ is cooking a bit again. He has three straight games with two touchdown passes and has helped Seattle stay alive in the playoff chase. But this week, he faces the team that's been his kryptonite lately. He had just one touchdown pass between the two games against the Rams in 2020 and had 152 yards and a touchdown before suffering that thumb injury that eventually kept him out for three games this year. What the Rams defense looks like on Sunday is anyone's guess with the number of players they now have on their reserve/Covid list. It's rare to see Wilson ranked as a QB2, but he certainly can outplay that value. This is a big one for Wilson and the Seahawks.
Week 14 vs Texans
Is Russell Wilson getting his groove back? He has two straight games with a pair of touchdowns and was a very respectable 30/37 against the 49ers last week in what was a season-saving win. Now he hopes to continue that streak and somehow keep the Seahawks in the playoff hunt against the officially-eliminated Texans. Wouldn't it be nice if he even comes close to his numbers the last time he played Houston? 26/41, 452 yards, four touchdowns. One can dream.
Week 13 vs 49ers
Seattle's offense looks like a shell of itself, but Russell Wilson still did all he could to keep the Seahawks alive including a late touchdown but missed on the two-point conversion that would have tied the game. Now Seattle is almost playing with house money as their season is pretty much lost at 3-8, even though they're incredibly only two games back of the last playoff spot in the NFC. Wilson faces the 49ers this week, a team he has thrown multiple touchdowns against in four straight games, including back in Week 4 of this season. If there was ever a time for Wilson to post another double-digit fantasy day, Sunday is it.
Week 12 vs Washington
If there's a week for Russell Wilson to get right, it's this week. Primetime against the worst defense vs opposing quarterbacks and Seattle's season is on life support. Cam Newton made his epic return against Washington last week. Here's thinking Wilson does the same this week (in a bit of a different fashion, of course).
Week 11 vs Cardinals
There's a first time for everything I guess. Last week was Russell Wilson's first time being shut out ever in the NFL. Not exactly how Wilson wanted to return to the lineup. It was also his first game with multiple interceptions and first game with zero touchdowns since Week 10 of last season. Seattle really needs this game to stay in the playoff chase, so you know Russell Wilson is going to dig down deep. Arizona ranks sixth against opposing quarterbacks, so it won't be easy. But if we've learned anything, it's that Russell Wilson will not go down easy.
Week 10 vs Packers
Russell Wilson is back and we are all better off for it. No offense to Geno Smith but the Seahawks are more fun when No. 3 is in the lineup. This was the best-case scenario timeframe for Wilson to return and by George, he did it. And just in time, as the Seahawks still have playoff hopes even at 3-5. But Wilson gets the Packers this week who just made Patrick Mahomes look shaky again. The bye week should help Seattle get right as a whole and it's Russell Wilson we're talking about here. He's our No. 9 QB this week.
