Week 6 vs New York Giants
Phillip Dorsett injured his hamstring early in Week 5 against Washington and was the lone Patriot to not participate in practice on Tuesday. It's highly unlikely he'll be healthy enough to be active for New England's Thursday night kickoff.
Week 5 at Washington Redskins
Phillip Dorsett has lined up for 73% of the Patriots' offensive snaps through Week 4, behind both Josh Gordon (81%) and Julian Edelman (82%). He has been the most productive of the three with those opportunities, as his 0.26 PPR points per snap lead the starting trio. Dorsett also leads the starters in aDOT at 12.7, and his three touchdowns are also in the lead despite Dorsett getting the fewest red zone targets. Dorsett also doesn't have a single drop to his name, and he's been remarkably consistent when targeted.
Starting Dorsett is a bet on efficiency over volume, and he'll need at least a few in-game matchups in which he can beat his coverage with his 4.33 speed to return value. Week 5 against Washington is a matchup that could oblige, as neither Quinton Dunbar not Josh Norman have the speed at outside cornerback to match Dorsett. Dorsett averages 3.2 yards of separation per target, which combined with Washington's ineffective pass rush should provide Dorsett multiple deep opportunities. He's a sneaky start as a WR3 with WR2 upside in Week 5, and an extremely low-cost option in DFS.
Week 4 at Buffalo Bills
Phillip Dorsett has been an incredibly reliable target for Tom Brady, and only two wide receivers have caught a higher percentage of their targets in 2019 than Dorsett's 86.7% on 15 targets. His speed makes him a worthy target on deep throws, but it also complements his excellent route-running skills on shorter throws, and the Patriots utilized him effectively in both ways in Week 3. Dorsett stands to gain the most from Antonio Brown's departure as the primary boundary receiver across from Josh Gordon.
Dorsett will be challenged by cornerbacks Tre'Davious White and Levi Wallace, and while he's only been targeted on 8.4% of his snaps, Dorsett is significantly faster than either corner. He's averaging 3.32 yards of separation per target, second-most in the NFL. Dorsett isn't an ideal start in redraft leagues due to his relatively low target volume, but he's perfect as an inexpensive and likely low-owned wide receiver in tournaments.
Week 3 vs New York Jets
Phillip Dorsett doesn't lose all of his value with Antonio Brown now a member of the Patriots, but his fantasy value takes a sizeable hit. He stands as the fantasy WR23 (mostly due to his 23.5-point Week 1), but his snap share went from 87% in Week 1 to 49% in Week 2, and it likely only remained that high because Brown is still learning the offense.
Dorsett will be difficult to roster in redraft leagues because of his low target volume, but his value hasn't disappeared. He's caught every single one of his last 23 regular-season targets from Tom Brady going back to last season, and with an aDOT of 14 yards along with his 4.33 speed, he's always a threat for a deep one. The right matchup could make him a low-owned, inexpensive option in DFS, but this one isn't likely to be it.
Week 2 at Miami Dolphins
Phillip Dorsett impressed in New England's Week 1 matchup with the Steelers, catching all four of his targets for 95 yards and two touchdowns. He actually had a higher average depth of target at 18.2 yards than teammate Josh Gordon, and higher than all but seven wide receivers with at least four targets. Hopefully, you started him somewhere and enjoyed the experience fully, because the arrival of Antonio Brown in New England changes Dorsett's outlook drastically.
Dorsett lined up for 87% of the Patriots' offensive snaps in Week 1, but that number is likely to decline dramatically if Antonio Brown starts. The starting three wide receivers project to be Antonio Brown, Josh Gordon, and Julian Edelman, and it's hard to project Dorsett taking more than the occasional snap away from any of them. He does have the explosive speed and average depth of target to put up fantasy numbers on relatively low volume, but moving forward it will be extremely difficult to project those explosive opportunities week-to-week. Dorsett's best hope for a fantasy viable Week 2 in Miami is a combination of a slow implementation of Antonio Brown along with early multi-touchdown lead that would cause the Patriots to ease up on their starters.
Week 1 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Phillip Dorsett was traded from the Colts to the Patriots in 2017 for quarterback Jacoby Brissett, and while he's never surpassed 60 targets in a season, his 4.33 speed has led to some impressive splash plays in his brief tenure in New England. Dorsett is likely behind at least four other players in target share for the Patriots (including running backs), and while he isn't a recommended start in Week 1 against the Steelers in most fantasy formats, he does have the deep speed to potentially return value as a cheap dart throw in a DFS tournament.
Fantasy Upside
Phillip Dorsett returns in 2019 as one of only two starting wide receivers who've actually caught passes from Tom Brady in a regular-season game. Dorsett caught a touchdown in three of his final four games in 2018 including the playoffs, and New England's wide receiver depth chart is wide open entering the preseason. His athletic metrics jump off the screen, and include a 4.33 40-yard dash. He could hardly ask for a better opportunity to demand more volume in this offense.
Fantasy Downside
Dorsett would need to see a significant bump in targets to be a legitimate fantasy option, as he finished 2018 with a 36% snap share, despite seeing over 70% of the snaps in Julian Edelman's absence in Weeks 1-4. He failed to pass a 26% snap share in Weeks 6-15, with multiple weeks under 10%. This will be Dorsett's third year in the Patriots offense, and despite impressive athleticism, it's fair to wonder why he's yet to manage over 528 receiving yards or 60 targets over an entire season.
2019 Bottom Line
Dorsett projects as our WR82 at 179th overall, while his ADP stands outside the top-250. Dorsett is a worthwhile final-round option in best-ball leagues or deeper redraft leagues. It's worth monitoring the Patriots' offseason closely to see how this wide receiver depth chart shakes out. New England has the sixth-most vacated targets in the league at 41.2%, and if Dorsett can land on the make side of a make-or-break offseason, he could be a steal at his ADP.
Week 19 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers go west to east for the second consecutive week to take on the Patriots in New England with a trip to the AFC Championship game on the line. New England is a shrinking four-point favorite with a middle-of-the-pack implied team total of 25.5 points. The Chargers rank top five in aFPA to QBs, which makes Tom Brady a very risky option in the divisional round. Even though the Chargers rank top five in aFPA to WRs as well, Julian Edelman should still work as the primary pass catcher this week, making him an elite WR option. However, no other Patriots pass catcher can be ranked as more than a contrarian dart throw this week.
Week 5 vs. Indianapolis Colts (TNF)
The Patriots have the highest implied team total for Week 5 at 31 points, coming off a dominant performance against the Dolphins. Indy ranks just 13th in aFPA against WRs, but the Colts offense may have trouble moving the ball with a banged up O-Line and down its best pass-catcher in T.Y. Hilton. That could lead to even more possessions for the Patriots offense. However, with Julian Edelman back from suspension, Dorsett's target share will likely decrease. Keep him out of lineups.
Week 4 vs. Miami Dolphins
Patriots receivers have struggled to produce for fantasy purposes, to put it mildly. Phillip Dorsett has a good matchup on paper, with the Dolphins only ranked 22nd in aFPA to WRs, but he's simply not seeing enough targets to warrant confidence in starting lineups. He's failed to reach 50 yards in back-to-back games, including a big goose egg last week, making him touchdown dependent. Dorsett is a low probability proposition in Week 4.
