Fantasy Upside
Odell Beckham’s 2019 season was one of missed opportunities. Beckham was plagued by a core muscle injury all of last year and never developed chemistry with quarterback Baker Mayfield. Despite the growing pains, Mayfield gave Beckham plenty of chances. Beckham finished 12th among wide receivers in total targets, and many of those targets were down the field. Beckham finished second in the league in deep targets, third in air yards, and third in total target distance, yet only finished with 1,035 yards, good for 23rd out of all receivers. In other words, Mayfield was looking for Beckham down the field with frequency, but they rarely connected. The reasons why are too complex to narrow down to a single issue, but Mayfield’s poor accuracy and Beckham’s injury certainly contributed. Mayfield should experience positive regression under new Head Coach Kevin Stefanski this year, who is a proponent of play action, an area where Mayfield excels. Beckham is reportedly healthy after undergoing surgery earlier in the offseason. Beckham’s raw talent remains among the best in the league at the receiver position and he provides a ceiling that would crush his current draft spot of a low-end WR1/high-end WR2.
Fantasy Downside
The concerns with Beckham are that he never develops chemistry with Mayfield and the Cleveland passing game sputters for its second straight year. The Browns’ offense is stacked on paper, but just ask anyone who drafted Beckham last year if that guarantees the offense will perform well on the field. Beckham’s underlying numbers also suggest there is some cause for concern. He was completely neglected in the red zone last year, finishing with a pathetic five red zone receptions and only four total touchdowns. Beckham also finished among the league leaders in drops with 11 and was inefficient in managing only 7.8 yards per target, good for 58th in the league among wide receivers. Beckham could also experience a reduction in volume due to Stefanski’s run-heavy scheme. Beckham has a high ceiling, but his range of outcomes is among the widest in fantasy at his position.
2020 Bottom Line
Beckham has the talent to finish as a high-end WR1 if the stars align and Cleveland has a productive passing game this year. Last year should make drafters hesitant to break the bank on Beckham, but a discount is already baked into his ADP as he is currently going as a high-end WR2 in some drafts. Beckham carries plenty of risk but has substantial upside and is an exciting pick in the late third round.
Week 17 at Cincinnati Bengals
Odell Beckham ended his touchdown drought with his third score of the season last week. Beckham is easily having the worst season of his career, averaging 63 yards per game (a career-low). He's even tied his career-low of three touchdowns in a season, and that low was set in 2017 when he played in just four games. He still has a high ceiling just because he's OBJ in a good matchup, but he should be viewed more as a WR2 this week against the Bengals. He only finished 2-39 against Cincy earlier this year.
Week 16 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Odell Beckham Jr. had one of his better games in recent weeks last week when he finished 8-66 off 13 targets. His eight receptions marked a season-high for him, and his 66 yards were his second-best performance since Week 9. This week he'll face a Ravens defense he struggled against earlier in the year when he finished 2-20 off seven targets. OBJ should be viewed as a WR3 at this point as his production simply has not been there this year with just two scores all season. He's been limited in practice with a groin injury, but should be fine to play.
Week 15 at Arizona Cardinals
Odell Beckham's frustrating season continued last week as he finished 2-39 on five targets against the lowly Bengals. Beckham hasn't been truly terrible, but he certainly hasn't lived up to expectations with just two 100-yard games and two touchdowns all season. He has a chance for a productive game this week in a favorable matchup against the Cardinals, however. Arizona has allowed the fourth-most receiving yards to wideouts this season. We like OBJ as a weaker WR2 against Arizona.
Week 14 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Odell Beckham had another poor outing last week, finishing 3-29 on six targets. This is his third game below 30 receiving yards in 2019 and his 10th game without a touchdown. OBJ's first year in Cleveland hasn't been great, but he has taken advantage of good matchups in the past, and that's what he'll get this week against the Bengals. He's no longer a top-five option like he's been in the past, but he should still be viewed as a low-end WR1 or strong WR2 this week against Cincy.
Week 13 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Odell Beckham Jr. looked good last week, finishing 6-84-1 on eight targets. His touchdown was his first score of the season since Week 2 and it was just his fourth game of the season topping 80 receiving yards. Expect a dip in production this week however as OBJ gets a tough matchup against the Steelers. He finished 4-60 on 10 targets just two games ago against Pittsburgh, and most of that production came on a 42-yard catch. Beckham should be viewed as a WR2 based on his potential, but don't be surprised if he doesn't have a monster game. OBJ is also dealing with a groin injury which has left him limited in practice this week.
Week 12 vs. Miami Dolphins
Odell Beckham finished 4-60 last week as he had yet another mediocre effort. Beckham hasn't been awful in 2019, but fantasy owners probably wish they waited a bit longer in the draft to select the Browns receiver. He's been disappointing with just two 100-yard games. But his biggest let down is scoring just once all season. He'll look to improve this week against the Dolphins who have been mocked all season for poor play. Miami's been better against receivers than most think, but it's still a favorable matchup for OBJ. View him as a strong WR2 or low-end WR1 in Week 12. Beckham was limited in practice on Wednesday with a groin injury, so his health status should be monitored.
Week 11 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Odell Beckham finished 5-57 on a team-high 12 targets last week. He also went without a touchdown again as he's only scored once all season. Beckham hasn't been terrible in 2019 as he has just two games below 50 yards, but he hasn't been his All-Pro self with just two games above 100 yards (and only one TD). He gets a decent matchup against the Steelers this week where he should be viewed as a WR2 option. Owners can expect about 5-6 receptions for 50-70 yards.
Week 10 vs. Buffalo Bills
Odell Beckham caught five of his six targets for 87 yards last week. He also lost five yards on a rush attempt. He's also gone six straight games without a score as he's seen just three red-zone targets all season long. He hasn't quite been what Browns fans envisioned, but he hasn't been awful. OBJ is still on pace for 1,150 receiving yards on the season. But his touchdown-less streak will likely continue in Week 10 as he gets a brutal matchup against Buffalo. The Bills have only allowed two receiving touchdowns to wideouts all season. Expect similar production to what you've seen out of Beckham all season, making him a decent WR2 play.
Week 9 at Denver Broncos
Odell Beckham could have had a much worse outing against the Patriots last week as he finished with a solid 5-52 off of seven targets. His production has been somewhat limited in 2019, but he's still on pace for a 1,000-yard season. The main frustration is he's only scored once all year. Expect his frustrations to continue this week against a brutal Broncos defense that's allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers all season. Expect a similar performance to what we saw a week ago, which would make Beckham a WR2. OBJ has been limited in practice with a groin injury, but he should be fine to play against Denver.
