Week 3 vs. Bears
Beckham plans to make his season debut against the Bears this week, which comes at the perfect time with the team thin at wideout due to the Jarvis Landry injury. OBJ should step right in and immediately dominate target share. It's hard to imagine that he'll be on a snap count considering the Browns kept him out of the lineup for the first two weeks of the season. This indicates that they wanted to make sure that he was ready for a full slate of snaps before throwing him out there.
Beckham goes up against a Bears defense that has allowed big plays to wideouts this season. Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, and Ja'Marr Chase have each scored 40+ yard touchdowns against this defense. This gives OBJ a chance to get off to a flying start right out of the gate, especially if this turns out to be a close game. Don't be afraid of the fact that it's his first game from injury, fire up Beckham has an upside WR3 in this spot.
at Kansas City Chiefs
Odell Beckham Jr. makes his return from a torn ACL just in time for a projected shootout against the Chiefs. The Chiefs ranked fifth in aFPA to wideouts last season, so this looks like a tough spot on paper. However, with the potential pass-heavy game-script against the Chiefs team, Beckham should still see opportunities to make big plays in this game. We all know how explosive of a player he is, so he still has upside in this one.
The risk is that Beckham shows some signs of rust after the long layoff with the torn ACL. We have also yet to see OBJ demonstrate a strong rapport with Mayfield. This might be a spot where the prudent play is to leave Beckham on your bench and see how he looks in his first game back. If you’re forced to start him, you can consider him a boom-or-bust WR3 in this projected shootout.
Fantasy Upside
Odell Beckham caught 23-of-43 targets for 319 yards (13.9 Y/R) and three touchdowns, adding 72 yards on seven attempts and a touchdown on the ground. He finished as WR36 in half-PPR points per game before his season was cut short at seven games due to a torn ACL. Beckham is reportedly on track to return to the Browns lineup by Week 1 of the 2021 season. As a player with five seasons of 1,000+ yards, this is someone with the track record and upside to return to form. If we look closer at his volume while healthy in 2020, we see that he was being used as a prototypical alpha WR1, ranking in the Top-10 at wide receiver in every meaningful category. From Weeks 1-6, Beckham posted a 25.0% target share (10th), 33.3% red-zone target share (4th), 13.5 average target depth (10th), and 37.71% air-yard share (9th). If the Browns can maintain an increase in passing volume, Beckham has the upside to return to form as a Top-15 wide receiver.
Fantasy Downside
Beckham is coming off a significant knee injury, which makes him a riskier bet at the wide receiver position. There are also several “mouths to feed” in this run-heavy offense, such as Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt, Jarvis Landry, Austin Hooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones, Rashard Higgins, David Njoku, and Harrison Bryant. This is an offense that is loaded with playmakers, so there's a definite risk that Beckham is not used at such a high rate like he was in the early stages of the 2020 season. Beckham will need to be highly efficient as a downfield threat to return WR2 fantasy value due to his run-heavy offense.
2021 Bottom Line
Beckham is among the most talented wide receivers in the NFL and is still only entering his age-29 season. The Browns' offense should be among the most prolific in the league, so Beckham will have a chance to put up gaudy touchdown totals with his high red-zone usage. Currently being drafted as WR28 (59.0 ADP) in Underdog fantasy leagues, Beckham is a boom-or-bust pick with the ceiling to ascend into the low-end WR1. He’s worth targeting, especially if you selected a high-floor target hog as your WR1.
Week 7 at Cincinnati Bengals
Odell Beckham cannot be trusted as anything more than a low-end WR2 in the current Cleveland offense. New Head Coach Kevin Stefanski wants to deploy a run-heavy scheme and that means Beckham will never receive the target volume he saw in New York. Beckham only saw three targets last week vs. Pittsburgh, and has only totaled 23 catches through six games. Beckham still has plenty of big-play ability so there is always a chance he catches a deep ball or two off play action, but those are not the types of plays you want to depend on in fantasy. The Bengals secondary is nothing special and top corner William Jackson is dealing with concussion symptoms, so Beckham has some upside this week and should still be started in all leagues.
Week 6 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Odell Beckham's Week 5 had its pros and cons. The pros? Beckham received nine targets, tied for the lead amongst Cleveland receivers. The cons? He was out-targeted by tight end Austin Hooper (10) and out-gained by Jarvis Landry (88 to 58), who also saw nine targets. Beckham's fantasy production has been volatile to this point in the season, and there are no signs of that changing with Cleveland deploying an ultra run-heavy philosophy and spreading the wealth around in the passing game. Hooper has received seven and ten targets in back-to-back games, which is not a good development for Beckham's fantasy prospects, although there is a chance those were nothing more than aberrations as Hooper has mostly been a non-factor to this point in the year. Beckham will be a middling WR2 in a tough divisional matchup with the Steelers this Sunday.
Week 5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Odell Beckham finally broke out in Week 4 with five catches for 81 yards and two touchdowns to go along with a 50 yard touchdown run. Cleveland's run-heavy offense will make such performances few and far between for Beckham, but that does not mean he cannot be started in fantasy. Despite his team's low passing volume, Beckham still leads the Browns in air yards by a significant margin so when Cleveland does throw it is OBJ who gets the valuable targets. The Browns could be forced to pass more than usual this week against a Colts defense that shuts down opposing running games. The potential for increased volume, combined with Beckham's talent and big-play ability, means he can be started as a WR2 this week.
Week 4 at Dallas Cowboys
Week 3 marked another frustrating week for Odell Beckham. The Browns' low-volume passing attack limited him to six targets, which he turned into four receptions for 59 scoreless yards. The Browns' offense plays at a slow pace and favors the run in most situations, heavily utilizing both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to pound away at opposing defenses. This limits Beckham's upside despite his immense talent. Combining this run-heavy philosophy with Baker Mayfield's erratic play makes Beckham a frustrating fantasy asset, and his outlook does not look like it will substantially improve anytime soon. The Cowboys secondary is struggling with injuries and got demolished in Seattle last week, so Beckham does carry enough upside to start as a low-end WR2, but that is almost solely due to his big-play ability.
Week 3 vs. Washington Football Team
Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham finally connected on a deep ball for the first time in what felt like ages in Week 2 as Beckham hauled in a 43 yard touchdown against the Bengals. Beckham should be able to get separation this week against the Washington secondary, but the bigger question is if Mayfield will have enough time to find Beckham downfield with a strong pass rush bearing down on him. Mayfield's numbers under pressure are abysmal and one of Washington's few strengths is putting heat on the quarterback. That being said, Beckham did get seven targets last week in a game Cleveland dominated on the ground, showing that he still gets enough looks to bring fantasy upside even if he is not catching deep passes. Start Beckham as a WR2 and hope Washington can keep up with the Browns on the scoreboard in Cleveland.
Week 2 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Week 1 was more of the same for Beckham in Cleveland. He attracted 10 targets but only caught three for 22 yards as he and Baker Mayfield struggled to connect downfield with any consistency. Beckham did draw multiple penalties and the target total is promising, but Beckham's continued inefficiency has made him extremely frustrating for fantasy since being traded from the Giants. The Bengals are not a particularly troubling matchup for receivers, so Beckham will still carry plenty of upside into Week 2 based on talent and volume alone. Give Beckham another chance in Week 2 as a WR2.
Week 1 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Odell Beckham struggled with the Ravens last year, totaling six catches and 64 yards over two games. The Baltimore secondary returns most of its starters this season, although the loss of FS Earl Thomas could hurt in coverage. Beckham should still be locked in for a healthy dose of targets as Mayfield's most explosive receiving option, but this is not the week to expect a huge performance. Start Beckham as a WR2 understanding that it's a difficult matchup, but he could post solid numbers if the Browns fall behind and have to throw early.
