Week 16 at Minnesota Vikings
COVID-19 protocols derailed his practice time prior to Week 15 and the game postponement allowed him to play December 21. A short week should not hurt OBJ and the Vikings’ awful defense opens a lot of opportunity for a bounceback week. Beckham and the rest of the Rams passing attack are lineup locks Week 16.
Week 15 versus Seattle Seahawks
Beckham is in health and safety protocols. It is unknown if he is vaccinated or has to sit out the mandatory 10 days.
Week 14 at Arizona Cardinals
Despite being limited by a hip issue, OBJ saw five targets on 36 snaps and scored a touchdown. He is securely in Matthew Stafford’s circle of trust after only a few weeks on the team and gets the chance to contribute against a strong Cardinals secondary. Few defenses are better against the pass according to 4for4’s aFPA, but with the Rams three-deep at wideout, Beckham should be a WR3 in a must-win for the Rams if they want to compete for the NFC West title.
Week 13 versus Jacksonville Jaguars
Ten targets in Week 12 is an excellent sign for the former Brown. It was the best OBJ has looked this season and a great launching point with the Jacksonville Jaguars coming to town. The Jags struggle the most against opposing wideouts, ranking 20th in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to the position. With Cooper Kupp and Van Jefferson commanding attention, OBJ is going to see his fair share of single coverage Week 13. He is dealing with an injury, so keep an eye on his status as we head into the weekend.
Week 12 at Green Bay Packers
A week of practice/healing for OBJ came at the right time with an important game against Green Bay coming up. He was targeted on 33% of his routes Week 10 (3 of 15) just days after joining the team, a sign that the Rams want him involved as much as he can handle. OBJ has WR3 upside in his second full game as a Ram against one of the better secondaries in football.
Week 8 vs. Steelers
Beckham had another underwhelming outing while playing through a shoulder injury last week, catching 2-of-6 targets for 23 yards. There's a chance that having the extra couple of days of rest coming off the Thursday nighter could help OBJ come out a bit more fresh this time around. He's been able to get in limited practices all week, so that's a good sign.
Beckham goes up against a Steelers defense that ranks 22nd in aFPA allowed to wideouts, so this is an exploitable matchup. Pittsburgh has given up big games to Ja'Marr Chase, Henry Ruggs, and Courtland Sutton this season. Each of these wideouts has the ability to win downfield, similar to Beckham. Perhaps OBJ can do the same in this matchup.
Week 7 vs. Broncos
Beckham continues to disappoint this season, turning in another underwhelming game against the Cardinals where he caught 5-of-8 targets for 79 yards. It's clear that he's having a tough time establishing rapport with Baker Mayfield. We've seen these struggles throughout his career in Cleveland. Perhaps OBJ can find his groove with Case Keenum under center.
The Broncos rank 12th in aFPA to wideouts, so this isn't an easy matchup. It's also unclear if OBJ will be able to play in this game, as he's currently dealing with a shoulder sprain. If he's able to suit up, he should dominant target share for the Browns, making him a boom-or-bust WR3 with high upside in this spot. Check to see if fellow wideout Jarvis Landry is also able to play, as this would put a dent in Beckham's target share.
Week 6 vs. Cardinals
Beckham turned in another disappointing outing last week, catching 2-of-3 targets for 20 yards in a 47-42 shootout. OBJ has now combined for only four receptions and 47 yards in his last two games. While he still leads the team with a 21.35% target share and 35.33% air yard share, these totals plummeted to a 16.67% target share and 28.13% air yard share in Week 5.
It doesn't get much easier for OBJ in this spot, as he'll go up against a Cardinals defense that ranks 17th in aFPA, but has limited wideouts to only 7.4 yards per target, which is the fourth-fewest in the NFL. It's hard to trust him as anything more than a volatile WR3 in this game, especially since it's likely that the Browns continue to emphasize the run in this spot.
Week 5 at Chargers
Beckham disappointed in a smash spot against the Vikings, but this was because of Baker Mayfield, who missed him wide open for a long touchdown. The good news is that OBJ has great usage, leading the team with a 47% air yard share and 26.7% target share. It's only a matter of time before we see a spike week with this type of volume.
The problem is that this is a tough matchup against a Chargers defense that ranks 1st in aFPA to wide receivers. This team is only giving up 6.57 yards per attempt (7th) and 6.85 yards per target (3rd). Add in the fact that the Browns are likely to be run-heavy in this game and you have a volatile WR3 in OBJ in this spot.
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Week 4 at Vikings
Beckham returned last week and had some encouraging usage, playing 64.2% of the snaps while leading the team in target share (31.03%) and air yards (149). While he's limited by the Browns' run-heavy offense, that's alpha WR1 usage that we can't ignore. Beckham should continue to see a significant portion of the team's targets, especially with Landry sidelined.
OBJ goes up against a Vikings defense that ranks 9th in aFPA allowed to opposing wideouts, but this team gave up big games to D.K. Metcalf (6 REC, 107 YDS, 1 TD), Rondale Moore (7 REC, 114 YDS, 1 TD), and Ja'Marr Chase (5 REC, 101 YDS, 1 TD). This isn't a matchup to fear and we could see OBJ have a spike week in this projected shootout. I'd put Beckham on the WR2 radar in this spot.
