Week 7 at Dolphins
Mike Davis has consistently received between 12-15 carries this season and about 15-18 touches per game. That volume is at least enough to still make Davis a flex-worthy RB against Miami, especially with backs like Austin Ekeler and Najee Harris off this week. Davis also has a touchdown in two straight games.
Week 5 vs Jets
Mike Davis is still seeing the most work and time in the Atlanta backfield. But he got nothing going against Washington. A receiving touchdown salvaged his fantasy day as he finished with 26 yards on 15 touches with just 14 rushing yards, And as Cordarrelle Patterson continues to see touches (even Wayne Gallman had six carries!), Davis has suddenly seen his fantasy ceiling lowered. He should still be considered at least for a flex against the Jets, who currently rank 23rd in the league against the run.
Week 4 vs Washington
Despite Cordarrelle Patterson continuing to see work in the backfield, Davis posted his third straight game with at least 16 touches and totaled 70 yards against the Giants. However, he has yet to find the end zone this season. His usage, however, still makes him worth a look at the flex position as he continues to be involved in the passing game with 14 catches through three games.
Week 3 at Giants
Mike Davis is still seeing the most snaps and touches in the Atlanta backfield, but now that Cordarrelle Patterson has switched over and seen more snaps at running back, Davis' ceiling has lowered a bit. But still getting used in the passing game (seven targets in Week 2) still gives him PPR value and still gives him flex appeal against the Giants.
Week 2 at Buccaneers
Davis was, by far, the most used running back for the Falcons in Week 1, seeing 75% of the snaps. He also had 18 touches against the Eagles. So this is still Davis' backfield going forward. We would now like to see that 3.3 yards per carry number bump up. That might not happen much against the Buccaneers, who held Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard to just 47 yards on 14 carries (though most of that was Mike McCarthy choosing to throw the football a ton in Week 1). Regardless, it's a tough matchup against the stout Bucs defensive line, making Davis just a flex play this week.
Week 1 vs Eagles
Mike Davis filled in nicely for Christian McCaffrey last season in Carolina and now gets his chance to lead the backfield in Atlanta. However, Atlanta did also recently sign Wayne Gallman, so maybe Atlanta won't make Davis the full-blown bellcow back. That said, the Falcons never really added much else during the offseason, cut Qadree Ollison after the preseason, and see Gallman more with special teams work, so this is still Davis' backfield, for the most part. Davis should still see close to 20 touches and be viewed as an RB2 for Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
Mike Davis filled in as best he could for an injured Christian McCaffrey in 2020. He signed with the Falcons as a free agent in 2021 and has almost no competition for touches in Atlanta's backfield. Todd Gurley and Brian Hill are gone and the Falcons didn't even address the position in the draft. Qadree Ollison and Javian Hawkins will be worked in as well, but this backfield belongs to Davis.
Fantasy Downside
Davis doesn't have the explosiveness of other running backs and does have just a 3.7 career YPC heading into his age-28 season. Part of that is it took him some time to really get going, as last season was the best of his career and he has just two seasons with more than 300 rushing yards and 200 receiving yards. But he has a chance to blow those numbers out of the water in 2021.
2021 Bottom Line
Davis could end up being one of the better bargains in 2021, with a fifth-round ADP and RB1 upside. Even at age 28, he has little mileage on his legs, with just 412 career carries. Davis could quietly be one of the better backs in 2021.
Week 17 vs. New Orleans Saints
Mike Davis has had a quality season filling in for Christian McCaffrey with 642 rushing yards, 373 receiving yards and eight touchdowns. He had just 28 yards last week against Washington, but found the end zone for the fourth time in five games. Davis is splitting work with Rodney Davis over the second half of the season, but still seems to be the main guy when McCaffrey sits.
With McCaffrey likely out again, Davis should see double-digit touches against the Saints. It’s not a great matchup, however, with New Orleans ranking second in aFPA to opposing running backs. If McCaffrey plays, sit Davis, but assuming he’s out once again, Davis should be a fringe RB2 option, with quality touches, but a tough matchup.
Update: It looks like Rodney Smith will be filling in with Davis injured. This is a bad matchup, and looks like a place to stay away from for fantasy owners.
Week 16 at Washington Football Team
Mike Davis had 59 yards on 14 carries last week, and added two yards on as many receptions, as the Panthers fell behind early against the Packers and then threw the ball 35 times. Davis has been a steady RB2 option for much of the season filling in for Christian McCaffrey, and if McCaffrey continues to be out, he should continue to be that.
This week, Davis faces a Washington defense that ranks sixth in aFPA to opposing running backs. Not a great matchup for Davis, but his workload should still put him in low-end RB2 territory in most leagues, and his ability to catch the ball gives him a higher floor, despite the bad matchup.
Week 15 at Green Bay Packers
Mike Davis had another nice game with Christian McCaffrey out of the lineup last week, rushing for 51 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It was also good to see him active in the receiving game, catching five of six targets for an additional 42 yards. Davis has been fairly steady with McCaffrey hurt, and he definitely wins the award for “best handcuff” this season. Fantasy owners should continue to view him as such.
Assuming McCaffrey is out again this week – not confirmed as of writing this – he should once again be considered a viable RB2 option against a Packers defense that ranks 24th in aFPA to opposing running backs, and gave up double-digit fantasy points to DeAndre Swift last week. Be sure to watch the injury report, and if McCaffrey ends up starting, Davis goes back to strict handcuff status only.
