Week 9 vs. Tennessee Titans
Marquez Valdes-Scantling bounced back in Week 7 following a goose egg in Week 6. MVS finished with a season-high 111 yards on three receptions (four targets). MVS has been a bit of a hit-or-miss play this season, although he's usually been reliable enough to get around 50 yards. He'll have a high ceiling this week as he draws a favorable matchup against the Titans, who are 6th in aFPA to WRs this season. He carries some risk due to his floor, but MVS should still be viewed as a solid WR3 play this week.
Week 7 at San Francisco 49ers
Marquez Valdes-Scantling had a rough outing last week, finishing with a big fat goose egg. He did see three targets, but failed to make a reception. He still played his usual amount, seeing 82% of the offensive snaps. It just wasn't his game. He'll look to turn things around this week, although he does get a tough matchup against the 49ers. San Francisco has allowed the 5th-fewest average fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this season. MVS will be in WR4 range for Week 7.
Week 6 vs. Buffalo Bills
Marquez Valdes-Scantling tied with two other players as the team leader in targets last week with eight. As a result, he had his most productive game of the year, setting season highs in receptions (6) and receiving yards (90). MVS has now had two games in a row with 60 or more yards, and has finished with at least 40 yards in four of his five games. He's not the most productive WR, but he has been fairly consistent. This week he faces a Bills defense that's allowed the 6th-fewest average fantasy points to wide receivers. But the Chiefs vs. Bills game from last year's playoffs was an offensive showcase, so there could be an opportunity for yards. MVS should be viewed as a mid-tier WR3 option in Week 6.
Week 5 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Marquez Valdes-Scantling set a season-high in receiving yards last week, finishing 3-63 on five targets. Although like his other Chiefs WRs, he too has not scored a touchdown all season. In fact, only one Chiefs wide receiver has a scored a touchdown this year and it's from Justin Watson who has just two total catches. Back to MVS, he's been a decent contributor averaging 3.3 receptions for 42.0 yards. As Patrick Mahomes warned us about, the production has been very spread out among the wide receivers as Travis Kelce and Clyde Edwards-Helaire hog the touchdowns. MVS isn't much more than a WR4 in a decent matchup vs. the Raiders this week.
Week 4 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Marquez Valdes-Scantling saw seven targets last week, which was just one behind the team lead. He put up a season-high of 48 receiving yards on four receptions. MVS is averaging 35 yards per game with no touchdowns, giving him little overall appeal in fantasy. Add on a tough Week 4 matchup against the Bucs, and there isn't much to like about MVS this week. He's not much more than a desperation WR5.
Week 3 at Indianapolis Colts
Marquez Valdes-Scantling tied Travis Kelce for the most targets on the team last week (7), but he wasn't very productive, finishing 2-13. MVS has now finished below 50 receiving yards in each of the first two games, and that's likely what his production will be most weeks moving forward. He's always a threat for a big play, but he's a boom-or-bust player who will have more busts than boom. He gets an OK matchup vs. the Colts this week where he should be viewed as a low-end WR4 play.
Week 2 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Patrick Mahomes put up 360 yards and five touchdowns in Week 1, but Marquez Valdes-Scantling only finished 4-44 on four targets. He also had a carry that went backwards for three yards. With the way the Chiefs are spreading the ball around, some players are bound to have some not-so-great performances. This week MVS didn't catch a touchdown, but he easily could in any given week. MVS gets a decent matchup in Week 2 against the Chargers in what should be a high-scoring game between two powerful offenses. MVS should be viewed as a WR4 for Week 2.
Week 1 at Arizona Cardinals
Marquez Valdes-Scantling is projected to be the No. 2 receiving threat in this high-powered Chiefs offense. While he won't fully take over Tyreek Hill's role, MVS does offer a nice deep threat option for Patrick Mahomes. On 123 career receptions, MVS has averaged 17.5 yards per catch, which ranks 1st among receivers with 100+ receptions since MVS joined the league in 2018. That's pretty much a fancy way of saying MVS is a boom-or-bust type of player. He may catch a long TD, or he may just have a couple receptions. He does draw a favorable matchup in Week 1 against a Cardinals defense that gave up the 5th-most average fantasy points to WRs last year. MVS should be viewed as a WR4 for Week 1.
2022 Fantasy Upside
Marquez Valdes-Scantling was added to the Chiefs less than a day after trading away Tyreek Hill. MVS gives Kansas City a solid home run threat as he’s ranked inside the top five in yards per reception over the last two seasons, including a phenomenal 20.9 ypr in 2020. It’s a nice pairing with the strong-armed Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs also provided MVS with a solid 3-year deal worth up to $36 million.
2022 Fantasy Downside
MVS will need to see a lot more work in Kansas City if he’s going to be a reliable fantasy option. In his four-year career at Green Bay, MVS had just eight games with eight targets or more. And MVS wasn’t very efficient with those targets, with a career catch percentage of 49.8%. His 47.3% catch percentage last season ranked 211th out of 212 eligible receivers.
2022 Bottom Line
Unless the Chiefs have different plans for MVS, this WR is essentially a one trick pony. He can help replace some of what this offense is lacking after the departure of Hill, but not all of it. Still, he’s in a good situation at Kansas City and we have him projected to hit career highs in receptions and receiving yards. MVS will likely be a sub 1,000-yard receiver, but he still carries enough value to warrant a selection in the later rounds. He should be a viable WR4 option heading into 2022.
Week 17 vs. Minnesota Vikings
In a divisional matchup with the Minnesota Vikings – who allow the second-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to wide receivers – Green Bay Packers deep threat receiver Marquez Valdes-Scantling should have decent upside this week. Despite returning from the COVID list this week, MVS still has plenty of potential, considering he posted 123 yards and a score on 10 targets the last time he faced the Vikings. Our models project Valdes-Scantling as a low-end WR3/upside WR4, but Green Bay could take his return slowly if he was exposed to illness prior to the last game.
