Week 10 at Cincinnati Bengals
Lamar Jackson only threw for 163 yards and a touchdown last week against the Patriots, but he added 61 yards and two touchdowns rushing in a convincing victory over the reigning Super Bowl champs. Jackson now has four rushing touchdowns over his past three games and hasn’t thrown an interception in that span. The Ravens are in the driver’s seat in the AFC North at mid-season, and that’s largely due to how good Jackson has been.
This week, Jackson should thrive against a Bengals defense that ranks 26th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. His ability to supplement his passing totals with impressive rushing production gives him perhaps the highest floor of any quarterback in the league right now, and he should be active in all league formats as an elite option.
Week 9 vs. New England Patriots
Lamar Jackson had only 143 yards passing against the Seahawks before the bye last week, but he added 116 yards and a touchdown on the ground and actually led the team with 14 carries. Jackson is 10th in the league with 576 yards on the ground and is on pace for a staggering 1,316 rushing yards this season. That kind of production supplementing his passing numbers make him a must-start every week and has propelled him into being one of the top fantasy options every week at the position.
This week, Jackson is still worth starting but faces a tough task against an elite Patriots defense that ranks second in the league in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. That being said, the Ravens will easily be the best team New England has played this year, and Jackson will have every opportunity to show what he can do against tough competition. He ranks a little lower this week due to the matchup, but we still have him just outside our top-five. Start him every game.
Week 7 at Seattle Seahawks
Lamar Jackson only threw for 236 yards last week against the Bengals, but he carried the ball 19 times for 152 yards and a touchdown on the ground. That kind of rushing production is what makes Jackson such a great fantasy option, and he now has 460 rushing yards on the season – eighth in the league. Not eighth among quarterbacks, eighth among all players in the NFL!
This week, keep Jackson active as a must-start against the Seahawks. While Seattle has talent on the defensive side of the ball, they currently rank 23rd in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks this season. Also, the Seahawks should challenge the Ravens enough to force Jackson to throw the ball a bit, so there should be opportunities for Jackson to have a big game. Start him in all formats.
Week 6 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Lamar Jackson struggled last week with three interceptions and a fumble, but he walked away with a victory over a division rival, threw for 161 yards and a touchdown and he gained 70 yards on the ground, salvaging what could have been a disastrous fantasy outing. Jackson now has 308 yards rushing this season, and his ability to supplement his passing totals with rushing production make him a steady fantasy quarterback and a must-start week-to-week.
This week, Jackson should be active in all leagues against the Bengals. Cincinnati has allowed the ninth-most aFPA to opposing quarterbacks so far this season and they gave up 93 rushing yards and a touchdown to Kyler Murray just last week. Jackson should have no trouble exploiting the Bengals and he should be active in all fantasy leagues as an elite option.
Week 5 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite two consecutive losses, Lamar Jackson has continued to put up solid fantasy numbers. Against the Browns last week, he threw a pair of picks, but also had three touchdowns and ran for 66 yards on the ground. He’s averaged 77.3 rushing yards per game over his past three outings and his ability to run the ball gives him a high floor each and every week.
This week, Jackson faces a Steelers defense that has actually held opposing quarterbacks to the 10th-least aFPA per game so far this season, despite struggling in the win-loss column. Jackson is a must-start regardless of matchup with the rushing production he provides, and he should be able to take advantage of a Pittsburgh defense that gave up 300 yards and a touchdown to Russell Wilson in Week 2.
Week 4 vs. Cleveland Browns
Lamar Jackson struggled against the Chiefs last week, throwing for 267 yards while completing only 51% of his 43 passing attempts. The Ravens played aggressively throughout the game and Jackson at times looked as though he was trying to win the game on every throw. He did add 46 yards and a touchdown on the ground, however, demonstrating the high floor he has as a dual-threat option.
Despite some notable names on the defensive side of the ball, the Browns have allowed the sixth-most aFPA in the league this season to opposing quarterbacks. They still have a banged-up secondary and they’ve really struggled to deliver on lofty expectations through the first three weeks of the season. Jackson should be fantastic and he should be active all leagues.
Week 3 at Kansas City Chiefs
Lamar Jackson followed up a phenomenal Week 1 performance against the Dolphins with a fantastic game against the Cardinals last week. He completed 64.9% of his passes for 272 yards and a pair of touchdowns, while also running for 120 yards! Jackson threw the ball 37 times, a great sign for fantasy owners who were worried he’d rarely be given the opportunity to throw the ball, and he’s been super-efficient in the process. Better competition coming down the pipeline will really clue owners into how really Jackson’s early-season success is.
This week should be another good one for him, however. The Chiefs defense has been middle-of-the-road through two weeks against the pass, but was dreadful a season ago. Only the Bengals allowed more passing yards than the Chiefs did in 2018. Expect a wild one, with high potential for both teams to put up a lot of fantasy points through the air. I wouldn’t use either defense, but Lamar Jackson should be active in all leagues.
Week 2 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Lamar Jackson straight-up destroyed the Dolphins last week, kicking off the season with 324 yards and five touchdown passes. He completed 17 of his 20 pass attempts and did not turn the ball over. Jackson only ran the ball three times for six yards as he picked apart a secondary that looked lost while he enjoyed a comfortable pocket all game. It could not have been a better start for the second-year passer, as the Ravens won in a 59-10 drubbing that fell over after the first quarter.
This week, Jackson faces a Cardinals defense with some missing pieces in their secondary – notably Patrick Peterson on suspension – but with more pass-rushing talent than he faced against Miami. It would be foolish to think he can completely repeat his stunning numbers in Week 1, but the upside is certainly there. We have him ranked as an elite option this week, and he continues to have a high floor due to his potential for rushing production, despite only three carries and six yards on the ground last week.
Week 1 at Miami Dolphins
Lamar Jackson is coming off a promising rookie season where he took over the starting job mid-season and proceeded to rush for 695 yards and five touchdowns. Jackson’s development as a passer will be the key to his success this season as a starting NFL quarterback, but the added value he brings on the ground will always make him a high-floor fantasy option as long as he’s in the lineup.
To start the season, Jackson gets a nice matchup against a rebuilding Dolphins defense that allowed 27.1 points per game to opposing teams last year, sixth-most in the league. The Dolphins have a quality secondary and added first-round pick Christian Wilkins to the defensive line, but their linebackers are young and inexperienced and they may struggle to rush the passer this year. Jackson should be in line for a good start to the season, and we have him ranked as a quality low-end QB1 this week.
Fantasy Upside
Lamar Jackson didn’t throw the ball much last season, only 170 times for 1,201 yards, despite starting seven games. However, he was 27th in the league in rushing with 695 yards, and he ran in five touchdowns. That kind of production in the running game makes him a unique fantasy option, and gives him a high floor in any given week. Jackson should benefit from Greg Roman continuing his role as the offensive coordinator. He’s worked with Colin Kaepernick and Tyrod Taylor in the past – both quarterbacks who excelled at making things happen with their legs. Plus, the additions of Marquise Brown and Miles Boykin in the draft gives him new playmakers to work with. No one ever questioned Jackson’s ability to chuck it downfield, and Brown has game breaking speed and excels at tracking the deep ball.
Fantasy Downside
It’s hard to imagine Jackson keeping up the pace on the ground. He averaged 79.4 yards rushing per game after taking over as the starter, which seems impossible to maintain. That extrapolates to 1,270 yards over a whole season, which would be 231 yards more than the most ever by a quarterback. Michael Vick, the only quarterback to rush for over 1,000 yards in a season, had 1,039 in 2006. Even if he does keep up that kind of production, the amount of hits he takes by running the ball so much could open him up to durability concerns. Jackson will need to adapt and learn to the throw the ball more effectively. He’ll need to improve his 58.2% completion rate in order to do so. New targets will help, but his ability as a passer still has a ways to develop.
2019 Bottom Line
Jackson is an exciting, but risky option in all fantasy leagues. He’s got a great arm, a ton of athletic ability and a coach that has gotten the most out of similarly-styled quarterbacks in the past, but we still don’t know what kind of quarterback he can be long-term. However, we have Jackson ranked 17th among quarterbacks and his ADP is in the 13th round in 12-team leagues, making him worth the risk. With such little investment and such large upside based on his dual-threat ability, there’s no reason not to grab him late as a backup quarterback.
