Week 6 vs. Tennessee Titans (London)
Lamar Jackson had a rough game last week in a division loss to the Steelers. He did not account for any touchdowns and threw for just 236 yards and a pick. He ran for 45 yards, but his 9.9 fantasy points were his lowest since Week 1, and tumbled him down to fantasy QB10 on the year.
This week, Jackson faces a Titans defense that ranks 14th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. Expect him to get back on track and for the rushing production to continue to elevate his overall fantasy numbers. We have Jackson ranked as a top-five quarterback this week and he should be active in all leagues.
Week 5 at Pittsburgh Steelers
For the second game in a row, Lamar Jackson had a pair of rushing touchdowns. He added a pair of passing touchdowns as well in a lopsided victory over the division-rival Browns in Week 4, and his efficient play is a big part of the Ravens’ 3-1 record to start the season. Jackson has accounted for eight touchdowns and thrown just one interception while completing 74.3% of his passes.
Jackson has a nice matchup this week against a struggling Steelers defense that ranks 21st in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks this season. Fire Jackson up for another excellent start with high rushing expectations, as we have him ranked as a top-five quarterback this week.
Week 4 at Cleveland Browns
Lamar Jackson had 202 yards passing last week against the Colts, but he also had 101 yards and two touchdowns rushing. His ground production always makes him a threat for elite fantasy numbers and it’s good to see him running regularly again with at least 10 attempts in two straight games.
This week, Jackson has a tough matchup against the Browns, who rank third in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks and have a Cylon for a pass-rusher in Myles Garrett. Jackson’s rushing production makes him a must-start every week, but temper expectations in what could be a low-scoring affair.
Week 3 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Lamar Jackson had 237 yards and a pair of touchdowns through the air to go with his 54 rushing yards last week in a victory over the Bengals. It was the kind of stat line we’re used to with Jackson, supplementing passing numbers with significant rushing production. Jackson’s 12 rush attempts doubled his Week 1 numbers, which makes sense given how much closer the final score was in the game.
This week, Jackson faces a plucky Colts team that dominated Houston last week on the scoreboard but gave up 384 passing yards and a pair of touchdowns to quarterback C.J. Stroud. Expect the Ravens to be in a much closer game than Houston was, but Jackson should still have plenty of opportunities to find success on the ground and through the air. Start him as an elite fantasy quarterback for Week 3.
Week 2 at Cincinnati Bengals
Lamar Jackson struggled last week, despite earning the win against the Texans. He threw for just 169 yards and an interception. While he added 38 yards on the ground, the Baltimore running backs got all three of the team’s touchdowns. I would expect that to even out moving forward, but it’s worth noting in the first game under a new offensive coordinator.
While Deshaun Watson rushed for 45 yards and a touchdown last week against the Bengals, he was held to just 154 yards, a touchdown, and a pick through the air, and Cincinnati ranked eighth in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks a season ago. In a tough matchup, keep expectations in check for Jackson. Still, he should be active given his history of rushing production. We have him ranked just inside our top 10 quarterbacks for this week.
Week 1 vs. Houston Texans
Armed with a fresh new contract, Lamar Jackson will look to return to the MVP form he showed in 2019. He’s been good the last two years, but has been limited to just 12 games in each. The Ravens have a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken who has a history of airing it out, and Baltimore brought in a couple of new receivers in Odell Beckham Jr. and first-round pick Zay Flowers. Things look bright for the sixth-year veteran, and if he can keep putting up significant rushing numbers - 63.7 rushing yards per game last year - then he’ll be in contention for the top fantasy quarterback in football once again.
Jackson starts the season with what may be a surprisingly tough matchup against the Texans. Houston was ranked first in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks last season and hired a defensive-minded head coach in DeMeco Ryans. A lot of that ranking last year was likely due to game script - they were dead last in aFPA to running backs, but they also added an elite pass rusher in the draft in rookie Will Anderson. Jackson’s ability to add rushing production to his totals make him a must-start every week, but it’ll be interesting to see how different this Texans team looks compared to a season ago.
Fantasy Upside
Lamar Jackson had a bit of a down year by his standards in 2022. While he still averaged 63.7 rushing yards per game, he had a career-low 6.9 yards per pass attempt and was limited to 20 total touchdowns (17 passing, three rushing) in 12 games. Still, Jackson was sixth in fantasy points per game among regular starters and his rushing upside continues to give him QB1 potential every week. He also has new weapons this year. A healthy (hopefully) Rashod Bateman will be joined by veteran Odell Beckham Jr. and first-round rookie Zay Flowers. With Todd Monken brought in to run a more downfield style passing attack, rather than the strict rush approach deployed by Greg Roman, the sky's the limit for Jackson entering his age-26 season with a brand new contract.
Fantasy Downside
While we love new weapons and an emphasis on the passing game, it is possible Monken’s style of downfield passing may decrease Jackson’s efficiency as a passer, and may create fewer designed runs for him. However, the main downside for Jackson is health. He’s played in only 12 games in each of the last two seasons and his playing style doesn’t exactly lend itself to durability and longevity.
2023 Bottom Line
Jackson is available in the third round of drafts and that feels just about right given the risk/reward of drafting him. He’s one of only a handful of players with legit potential to finish as the overall QB1 and we have him ranked right around our top five quarterbacks. Draft him at cost.
Week 13 vs. Denver Broncos
Lamar Jackson had 254 yards and a touchdown last week in a disappointing loss to the Jaguars. He also added 89 yards on the ground, which salvaged an otherwise mediocre fantasy day. Despite the Ravens struggling offensively, Jackson is still the QB5 on the season, largely thanks to his 755 yards on the ground.
Jackson has a tough matchup this week against the Broncos. Denver ranks 7th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. However, Jackson’s ability to supplement his passing numbers with impressive rushing production make him a must-start every week, regardless of matchup. Start him as usual.
Week 12 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Lamar Jackson was held to 209 passing yards and an interception last week against the Panthers in a low-scoring victory. Luckily, he salvaged the poor passing numbers with 31 yards and a touchdown on the ground.
Jackson should get back on track this week against a Jaguars defense that ranks 22nd in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. Jackson is still on pace for 1,132 rushing yards this season and has 19 touchdowns - including three rushing - to seven interceptions. As long as those trends continue, he’ll be worth starting. Keep him active this week in a nice matchup.
Week 11 vs. Carolina Panthers
Lamar Jackson was held to just 133 passing yards and a touchdown in a victory over the Saints before the bye last week. However, he salvaged his fantasy day with 82 yards on the ground. Jackson is now on pace for 1,199 rushing yards this season and he’s accounted for 18 touchdowns – including two rushing – on his way to another excellent fantasy season. His ability to pad his numbers with rushing stats make his 196 passing yards per game tenable for fantasy managers.
This week, Jackson faces a Panthers defense that ranks 18th in aFPA to opposing quarterbacks. Jackson should have no trouble continuing his impressive season against a team already looking to 2023, and fantasy managers should keep him active as an elite option in all formats for Week 11.
