Week 1 vs. Tennessee Titans
The Dolphins have a bottom half of the league implied team total in Vegas this week of just 21.75 points. Adam Gase apparently finds it cute to put the starting running back on his depth chart as Kenyan Drake or Frank Gore. Make no mistake, Gore will get touches in this backfield, but Drake should maintain enough of his elite volume from the end of last season to warrant high-end RB2 status to begin the season. Start him against a Titans defense that ranked outside the top 10 in aFPA to RBs last year.
Fantasy Upside
From Week 9 on last season, Kenyan Drake was an RB1 in fantasy football. Over that span, he was the RB7 in PPR, averaging about 15 fantasy points per game. He also showed a great ability to catch the ball, with three or more receptions in six of those nine weeks after Jay Ajayi was traded.
Fantasy Downside
The Dolphins signed veteran Frank Gore and drafted Kalen Ballage. There is some concern about whether Drake will maintain the same volume he had in the second half of last season. His 152 touches from Week 9 on were top-12 at the position, but it's very possible Frank Gore will eat into those snaps, given Gore's excellent pass blocking and the Dolphins' bad offensive line.
2018 Bottom Line
Drake has the feel of a high-ceiling/low-floor pick this season. The sample size was small last season, and we've seen RBs over-drafted on half-season sample sizes in the past not live up to their ADP the following season. However, his 21+ touches per game from Week 12 on last season are eye-popping. Consider him an RB2 with upside among the group of RBs going in the third round. But don't forget that he's in an offense that could struggle to find positive game script for its backs this season.
Week 17 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins host the Bills in Week 17, looking to spoil Buffalo's playoff hopes. Kenyan Drake is in a prime spot to do it, as Buffalo is dead last in aFPA to RBs. With Drake's huge workload in recent weeks, he should be considered a high-end RB1 in Week 17. He already put up 23+ PPR points on Buffalo a few weeks ago.
Week 16 at Kansas City Chiefs
Miami has the fourth-lowest implied team total in Vegas this week at 16.5 points, and the Dolphins must go on the road to face a Chiefs team still playing for the AFC West crown. Not a good combination. 4for4's Chris Raybon noted on Twitter this week that Kenyan Drake averaged 26.0 touches/game on 89% of snaps over the past three games with Damien Williams out.
It's possible Williams returns this week. Drake averaged 11.0 touches/game on 61% of snaps with Williams active in Weeks 9-12. Split the difference and you get 18.5 touches/game, 75% snaps, which seems like a reasonable expectation. This lowers Drake's ceiling a bit this week, but we still have him as a low-end RB1 for Week 16.
Week 15 at Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins clearly had their best performances of the season at home the past two weeks against the Patriots and Broncos. But this warm weather team must now go to Buffalo, where Miami has a bottom-six implied team total in Vegas this week. Nevertheless, Kenyan Drake has been a fantasy revelation and faces a Buffalo rush defense allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to RBs over the past four weeks. Drake is an automatic start this week against the team that's dead last against RBs in aFPA.
Week 14 vs. New England Patriots
Dolphins head coach Adam Gase didn't sound optimistic about Damien Williams' (shoulder) chances of returning to practice this week. That means Kenyan Drake should be in line for another huge workload, after seeing 26 touches last week. Despite the less-than-ideal matchup against the Patriots, volume is king when it comes to fantasy RBs and Drake will get it, making him a high-end RB2, at worst.
Week 13 vs. Denver Broncos
Kenyan Drake is basically the last man standing in the Dolphins backfield this week, with Jay Ajayi gone and Damien Williams injured. He'll get more volume, but Miami-Denver has the lowest over/under in Vegas for Week 13, with the Dolphins only expected to score 19 points. Nevertheless, Drake should be a mid-to-low-end RB2 option in Week 13 against a vulnerable Broncos defense (24th in aFPA vs. RBs).
Week 12 at New England Patriots
Damien Williams is the preferred play over teammate Kenyan Drake in PPR, and the matchup is not a good one for Drake anyway, as the Patriots rank fifth in aFPA vs. RBs. Since the Jay Ajayi trade, this has been a split backfield with 32 touches for Drake versus 35 for Williams. Drake is too risky of an option in a game where the Dolphins are a 17-point road underdog.
Week 11 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Kenyan Drake's snaps over the past two games after Jay Ajayi was traded: 55 and 44%. Damien Williams' snaps in that span: 45% and 56%. Drake's touches over the past two games: 15 and 9. Williams' touches in that span: 13 and 11. It's a small sample size, but this is an RBBC that, so far, has been game script dependent on who edges out the other for touches. Last week, the Dolphins were largely behind but the week prior it was a more neutral game script. Consider Drake a low-RB2 in a Week 11 matchup against Tampa Bay, who are ranked 21st in our aFPA vs. RB rankings.
Week 10 at Carolina Panthers
The matchup could not get worse for the Dolphins backfield, as the Panthers are first in our aFPA vs. RB rankings. The Panthers have also gone four straight weeks without allowing a touchdown to a running back. Kenyan Drake out-snapped Damien Williams 55-45% last week and out-touched Williams 15-13. Even more encouraging for Drake, he caught 6 passes, which should raise his PPR floor moving forward. However, given the matchup, don't consider him anything more than a FLEX with a low floor in Week 10.
