Week 12 at Indianapolis Colts
The Dolphins went from 10-point underdogs to 7.5-point underdogs with the news that Ryan Tannehill would make his return, but Miami's implied team total of 21.75 points is still less than ideal. The Colts are only 19th in the league in aFPA to RBs, but Frank Gore and Kenyan Drake's essentially 50-50 split makes both of them non-starters in standard leagues, when you also consider likely negative game script and the Dolphins near the bottom of the league in plays per game. At best, Kenyan Drake's passing game usage makes him a low-end RB2 option in PPR leagues.
Week 10 at Green Bay Packers
The Brock Osweiler experience continues at Lambeau Field, with the Dolphins having an extremely low implied team total of fewer than 20 points in Week 10. For Kenyan Drake owners, the frustration continues too, as Adam Gase inexcusably only gave Drake seven touches last week. Green Bay is around the league average in aFPA to RBs this season. Due to likely negative game script against Aaron Rodgers, Drake should see enough passing game usage (if Adam Gase acts logically) for Drake to have RB2 production in PPR leagues. He's more of a FLEX in standard leagues.
Week 8 vs. New York Jets
Kenyan Drake has seen some promising production in recent weeks, but he continues to rely on extreme efficiency. He's only averaged 13.5 touches over the past month but 19.1 PPR points per game. Pretty insane. Regression is to be expected, but maybe not in a re-match with the Jets, a team Drake produced 70 total yards and a touchdown against in Week 2. It's a heavy bye week and a good match-up, which puts Drake in the RB2 range for Week 9.
Week 8 at Houston Texans (Thursday)
Brocktoberfest rolls on in H-Town without two key members of the Dolphins receiving core - Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson. That could mean Kenyan Drake continues to see a higher level of targets out of the backfield. Miami does have the second lowest implied team total on the Week 8 slate of 18.5, but Drake's efficiency of late keeps him on the FLEX radar for Week 8 against a defense ranked middle of the pack in aFPA to RBs.
Week 7 vs. Detroit Lions
We have to accept that Frank Gore is going to get at least half of the work on the ground in the Dolphins offense moving forward, making Drake not much more than a FLEX candidate in standard, but this week in PPR against a porous Lions rush defense (28th in aFPA to RBs), Drake is on the RB2 radar. With 3.5 receptions per game, he should provide a steady floor, and Adam Gase showed confidence in Drake, going right back to him last week in overtime after he fumbled at the goal line. He's also been on the field for 60 percent of snaps in all but one blowout loss this season. That's a reliable snap share. We're sure Adam Gase will want to keep it on the ground more than usual too with Brock Osweiler at quarterback.
Week 6 vs. Chicago Bears
The Dolphins are 31st in the NFL in plays per game and face the Bears strong defense in Week 6 with an implied team total of less than 20 points. That low play count is a big reason why Kenyan Drake is only averaging 11 touches per game, despite playing more than 60 percent of snaps in every game except the blowout loss in New England. Frank Gore is also eating into his carries. Against the #3 defense in aFPA to RBs, Drake belongs on benches, despite a big Week 5, until we see Adam Gase give him more consistent usage.
Week 5 at Cincinnati Bengals
The Dolphins had the most predictable of blowout losses in Week 4, and Miami has a bottom-seven implied team total in Week 5 of just 21.25 points. Kenyan Drake only has 11 total touches in the past two weeks. And that was against two defenses with favorable match-ups, per our aFPA metric. At this point, Kenyan Drake is a total dart throw that shouldn't be looked at as anything more than a risky FLEX play until some undetermined point in time where Adam Gase decides to actually give his best RB work like he did last season.
Week 4 at Tennessee Titans
With the Patriots ranked only 30th in aFPA to RBs and an above-average total of 48.5 points, there are reasons to like Kenyan Drake in Week 4. It also doesn't hurt that he put up 193 total yards the last time he faced New England. Drake may have only had seven touches last week but he maintained a high snap count, indicating there is less reason for concern. Multiple receptions in each game are also good to see. Continue to treat Drake as an RB2 in this plus matchup.
Week 3 at Miami Dolphins
Miami has a respectable 24-point implied team total in this game. That should lead to positive game script for Drake, who faces a Raiders defense ranked 23rd in PPR points allowed to RBs this season. Drake has seen 17 and 15 touches, respectively, in the first two games of the season, but he has played at least 60 percent of the snaps in both games. That's what you're looking for to inspire confidence in your RB2 options. That's where Drake was drafted for most teams, and more importantly, he's caught at least three passes in both weeks. He's a borderline RB1 in Week 3.
Week 2 at New York Jets
Frank Gore is going to stop Kenyan Drake from being the bell cow he was at the end of last season. That's just how it's going to be. Nine touches for Gore meant Drake (17 touches) didn't approach the 20+ touch mark owners were used to down the stretch last season. The Jets were just 20th in aFPA last year to RBs, but the Dolphins have a low implied team total this week of just 20.25 points. The Jets also held Lions RBs to 2.6 yards per carry in Week 1. Consider Drake a low-to-mid RB2 this week with a capped ceiling.
