Week 4 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
Kenyan Drake finished with 72 scrimmage yards last week, which equates out to about 250 scrimmage yards in the Dolphins Suck Calculator. In all seriousness, though, Drake has been one of the few bright spots in Miami, even if that light is a little dull. He led the team in carries (12) last week and was active in the passing game, catching three of six targets for 34 yards. He gets a decent matchup against the Chargers this week, and is a decent flex option.
Week 3 at Dallas Cowboys
There's a rumor going around Kenyan Drake could be the next Dolphins player to be traded. For now, he's still on the team, though he hasn't been doing a whole lot. He has just 75 scrimmage yards on the season. If you play in PPR leagues, he almost has the same amount of points off of receptions (7) as he does yards (7.5).
Not only is Drake struggling in a bad Miami offense, but he's also doing it in a timeshare. He's splitting touches with Kalen Ballage, and it's just not good for anybody involved. The best you can hope for with Drake is a similar situation to last week where he caught several passes, and maybe he can luck out with a touchdown. He's not much more than a lower-end RB3 option.
Week 2 vs. New England Patriots
The only thing worse about Miami getting blown out, and therefore leading to very little rushing attempts for Kenyan Drake is the fact he split his little time with backup Kalen Ballage. This appears to be a true committee as Drake finished with 27 offensive snaps and Ballage with 20. Drake ran four times for 12 yards and Ballage ran five times and managed to go backwards a yard. As receivers, Drake caught two passes (three targets) and Ballage caught one pass (one target).
Drake is probably the better of the two backs due to his receiving skills and the fact Miami will find itself down big in most games this season. But he's still not much more than an RB3. He also faces a Patriots defense that shut down the Steelers' run game in Week 1.
Week 1 vs. Baltimore Ravens
Kenyan Drake opens the year as the Dolphins' starter on the team's depth chart, but expect Kalen Ballage to get his touches as well. Drake played well in 2018, finishing with 1,012 scrimmage yards. He's a solid runner (4.7 ypc) with catching ability (over 50 receptions last year) and should produce. But the Dolphins are in the opposite of win-now mode in 2019, and that hurts Drake's value a lot. Miami's poor defense likely means less running, and more passing.
As for Week 1, Drake gets a tough matchup against the Ravens. Baltimore allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing backs in 2018. Combine that with Miami's poor offense and his split touches with Ballage and you get a lot of negatives attached with Drake. He should be viewed as an RB3 option this week.
Fantasy Upside
Kenyan Drake had an underrated year in fantasy last season, finishing with over 1,000 scrimmage yards and nine touchdowns. And he put up those numbers despite the Dolphins being 26th in points per game, and last in plays per game. With Frank Gore out of the picture (who had 156 carries last season), Drake should have more opportunities in 2019 to succeed. Drake also has a new coaching staff and offensive system in place, which should help.
Fantasy Downside
While we expect Drake’s production to go up with increased touches, we haven’t actually seen it happen. He didn’t have any games with 15 or more carries last season and had just five games with 10+ carries despite playing the entire season. And even though Gore is gone, the Dolphins still have Kalen Ballage and drafted Myles Gaskin.
2019 Bottom Line
Overall, Drake is set up to be a sleeper option this season. His ADP is well below where we have him ranked, which is a lower-tier RB1. Ballage and Gaskin offer a little competition, but Drake clearly looks like the most talented back on this roster. With little offensive weapons, look for the Dolphins to lean on one of their top playmakers both on the ground and as a receiver.
Week 17 at Buffalo Bills
Miami goes to cold Buffalo with nothing to play for in Week 17 (except maybe its head coach). The Dolphins have a miserable implied team total of just 17.5 points as 4.5-point underdogs. With Ryan Tannehill posting fewer than 15 combined fantasy points over the past two weeks, no player involved in this passing game is worthy of starting consideration in Week 17 against a tough Bills secondary. Despite that, even the Dolphins run game is risky due to Adam Gase's RBBC. This appears to be a run funnel offense, with Buffalo ranked 29th in aFPA to RBs. If there's one player to start in this offense, it would be Kenyan Drake in PPR leagues. Kalen Ballage is just a dart throw FLEX option.
Week 16 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Dolphins host the Jaguars in a game with a brutally low over/under of just 38 points, second-lowest on the Week 16 slate. Despite being 3.5-point favorites, Miami still only has an implied team total of 20.75 points. The Jaguars rank 10th in aFPA to RBs, and with Frank Gore out for the year now, Kalen Ballage will get the opportunity to be the early-down back against Jacksonville. However, Kenyan Drake splitting the work still keeps this backfield status quo from a fantasy standpoint. Both are risky FLEX options for all the stated reasons in Week 16.
Week 15 at Minnesota Vikings
Miami may have pulled off a miracle last week, but heading on the road to Minnesota this week may require the second coming. The Dolphins have an implied team total of just 18.5 points and are touchdown underdogs. The Vikings also rank ninth in aFPA to RBs. Plus, here are Kenyan Drake's touches over the past three weeks: 13,9,7. Here are Frank Gore's touches over the past three weeks: 15, 9, 13. As electric as Drake is in the open field, Adam Gase just doesn't seem to view him as anything more than a change-of-pace back. That keeps him in very risky FLEX territory again for Week 15.
Week 14 vs. New England Patriots
The Dolphins host the Patriots, a situation Miami has surprised in the past, but not worth banking on in the fantasy playoffs. The Dolphins have a bottom six implied team total this week of fewer than 20 points. New England ranks just above league average in aFPA to RBs. Kenyan Drake's past success against this team, combined with solid passing game usage keeps him on the RB2 radar for PPR leagues in Week 14. But that's the only situation we'd feel comfortable starting Drake when it is now win or go home. Frank Gore simply can't be trusted in any format with a poor offense and little passing game usage.
Week 13 vs. Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills rank first in aFPA to QBs. That should mean more work for Miami backs this week against a Buffalo defense that ranks just 21st in aFPA to RBs. Kenyan Drake has been limited in practice Wednesday and Thursday. His status needs to be monitored. If he's able to suit up, Drake should maintain RB2 numbers in PPR formats against a Bills defense he has double-digit PPR production against in his last three games.
