Week 14 vs. Ravens
Kareem Hunt rushed seven times for 20 yards against the Ravens prior to the bye in his return to action. We could see the Browns rely on him in the passing game with Baltimore being so stout in run defense, especially since he's a better receiver than Chubb. Consider Hunt on the RB2/FLEX fringe in this spot, especially since I this projects as a positive game script.
Week 12 at Ravens
Kareem Hunt is ready to return after missing the last five games due to injury. This projects as more of a floor game for Hunt because of the uncertainty surrounding his workload in his first game back. This is also a tough matchup against the Ravens. The good news is that when Hunt is on the field, he should see valuable touches, like targets and a few red-zone carries.
Let's remember that Hunt has finished as RB16, RB2, RB14, and RB9 this season, so this is a talented player in a terrific team context. While I'd consider him more of an upside FLEX than RB2 in his first game back, it wouldn't surprise me if Hunt picked up right where he left off.
Week 6 vs. Cardinals
Hunt continues to produce despite averaging only 15.2 opportunities per game. This is because he makes an impact in the passing game (4.2 targets per game) while being fed red-zone carries (12). Hunt has also been highly efficient, averaging 5.4 yards per carry while putting up 20.3 fantasy points above expectation, ranking 3rd among running backs.
Hunt now takes over the lead role with Nick Chubb out for this game. We could see the Browns adopt a run-heavy gameplan against this high octane Cardinals offense in an attempt to keep Kyler Murray off the field. We can likely pencil in Hunt for 20+ opportunities in this spot, putting him firmly in the RB1 range with overall RB1 upside if this game can turn into a shootout.
Week 5 at Chargers
Hunt has actually outproduced Chubb so far this season, ranking as RB6 while Chubb is RB10. Hunt has been able to produce at this level despite averaging only 13.75 touches per game. This is because he's gotten valuable touches, putting up 15 targets and eight red-zone attempts. Hunt has also been highly efficient, averaging 5.4 yards per carry.
We have to consider Hunt as an RB2 in this strong spot against a weak Chargers rush defense. The Browns will likely try to do what the Cowboys did against this defense, where they fed Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard. We can safely project another strong outing from Hunt, who is really providing solid value for fantasy players.
Week 4 at Vikings
Hunt is coming off a huge game against the Bears, rushing 10 times for 81 yards and a touchdown while catching 6-of-7 targets for 74 yards. Hunt is currently playing 41.79% of the snaps while averaging 13 touches per game. He's maintained a solid role in an efficient offense, playing behind one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. We can consider Hunt an upside FLEX on a weekly basis.
It was interesting to see Hunt set season-highs in targets and receptions in the first game without Jarvis Landry. Perhaps Hunt will see more a role in underneath targets to help replace what the team lost in Landry. This is a great spot to play Hunt because the Vikings are vulnerable against the run and we should see a lot of fireworks in this game. He could flirt with RB2 value in this spot.
Week 3 vs. Bears
Hunt remains one of the most intriguing backup running backs in the NFL, but it's tough for him to be anything more than a FLEX play while only averaging 11.5 opportunities per game. The good news for Hunt is that he's currently playing on almost 44% of the snaps. When the Browns are in positive game-scripts, we could see Hunt flirt with RB2 value as the team tries to keep Nick Chubb fresh by giving Hunt more touches. There is also a chance that Hunt can hit his ceiling when the Browns play from behind, since he's the primary passing-down back.
Hunt is in a tough spot against the Bears this week in terms of matchup, but the Browns have a chance to control this game with rookie Justin Fields making his first career start. If that happens, he can easily provide strong value at the FLEX. However, Fields should be an upgrade over starter Andy Dalton, so there's a good chance that this is a closer game than the seven-point spread indicates. Consider Hunt a risky FLEX in this spot.
Week 2 vs. Texans
Hunt was limited to only six carries for 33 yards and a touchdown while catching all three of his targets for 28 yards, finishing as the RB13 in half-PPR formats for the week. While his fantasy production was salvaged by the touchdown, the good news is that he played 47.46% of the snaps, so it's clear that he has a role in this backfield. Playing in a run-heavy offense that should score a lot of points, Hunt still has upside FLEX appeal on a weekly basis.
He's in a great spot against the Texans here, who are one of the worst defenses in the NFL. James Robinson and Carlos Hyde combined for 69 yards on 14 carries (4.93 YPC), but the negative game script forced the Jaguars to air it out and play catch-up. Hunt should see a larger role than usual if the Browns are able to take a double-digit lead in this game. He has RB2 appeal in this smash spot.
Week 1 at Kansas City Chiefs
Kareem Hunt could see an uptick in usage in a projected shootout against the Chiefs. Last season, he led Browns’ running backs in targets (51) and receptions (38). As the primary passing-down back for this team, Hunt could see more targets if the Browns fall behind early, which is a possibility given that they’re six-point underdogs in this game. Don’t buy into the revenge game narrative here though, as it rarely plays out that way.
The risk with Hunt is that he plays second fiddle to Chubb in a run-heavy gameplan, similar to what we saw in the AFC Championship Game against the Chiefs, where Hunt had only seven touches. That’s simply not enough usage to warrant starting him over a player with a more secure workload. Having said that, this is still a game that projects to be high-scoring, so you can start Hunt as a FLEX in this game.
Fantasy Upside
Kareem Hunt rushed for 841 yards and six touchdowns on 198 carries (4.2 YPC). He also caught 38-of-51 targets for 304 yards and five touchdowns, finishing as RB18 in half-PPR points per game. The Browns should continue to be a run-heavy offense, so Hunt will still have opportunities to provide low-end RB2/high-end RB3 value, even with Chubb acting as the lead back. The upside for Hunt is high because if Chubb were forced to miss time due to injury, he would immediately vault into the Top-10. While Hunt isn’t as efficient of a runner, his higher passing game volume gives him a high ceiling. The Browns should be able to rack up points at a high rate, so the touchdown opportunities will be there for Hunt. They project as one of the best teams in football, so there will likely be several positive game scripts as well.
Fantasy Downside
It’s clear that Chubb is the best back on the team, which adds risk to Hunt because if the Browns opt to pass more like they did down the stretch last season, that could mean fewer opportunities for Hunt. Hunt needs the Browns to remain as one of the most run-heavy offenses in the NFL, or else he just becomes a better version of Baltimore’s Gus Edwards. Hunt only averaged nine touches per game in the postseason, so there’s a risk that the Browns started to shift their philosophy towards a more Chubb-centric backfield. This really demonstrates Hunt’s low floor, as he had seven games with fewer than 70 total yards (including postseason).
2021 Bottom Line
Hunt is a talented back in an elite offense, but the fact remains that he’s the clear-cut RB2 on this team. This makes him a risky pick at RB25 (69.7 ADP) in Underdog fantasy leagues. Hunt. At the same time, if you decide to go WR-heavy in the early rounds, Hunt makes for an ideal RB2 because he’s the rare back who has a high ceiling with standalone value as his team’s backup RB. Hunt should be able to provide Top-30 value at his position with the upside for more, but you will just have to deal with a low weekly floor.
Week 17 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Kareem Hunt occupied his usual role as a complement to Nick Chubb in the Browns' backfield in Week 16, getting four carries and five targets. He didn't do much with his touches, although he did punch one carry in for a rushing touchdown to save his fantasy line. Hunt's low touch totals in recent weeks make him a risky fantasy play as he will have a difficult time posting big numbers unless the Browns are nursing a lead by relentlessly running the ball. Week 17 brings a matchup with the tough Steelers defense, rendering Hunt a difficult sell as a fantasy option behind Chubb.
