Week 14 vs. New York Giants
My, how the Redskins have fallen in 2018, potentially going from first to the worst team in the division by the end of the season, due in large part to so many notable injuries. Washington is now on its third quarterback in Mark Sanchez, and have an implied team total of fewer than 20 points this week, bottom five in the league. New York also ranks top 10 in aFPA to TEs. Normally, these factors would be a death sentence for a TE, but the position is so thin, Jordan Reed should maintain low-end TE1 numbers. Just don't get excited about any kind of massive upside.
Week 13 at Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles may rank top five in aFPA to TEs, and Washington has a bottom five implied team total this week. However, the state of the TE landscape still makes Jordan Reed a starter in Week 13. His rapport with Colt McCoy is promising too, as Reed has 19 targets over the past two weeks. He's a mid-to-low-end TE1 for Week 13 given his recent target volume.
Week 12 at Dallas Cowboys (Thanksgiving)
Colt McCoy takes over at quarterback for the rest of the season for Washington, which could give a slight boost to Jordan Reed, who is coming off his best game of the seaosn. The Cowboys also are more prone to getting beat by TEs (22nd in aFPA) than WRs (6th in aFPA). Despite a low implied team total under 17 points, Reed's target share at a thin position in fantasy can't be ignored. Consider him a mid-tier TE1 in Week 12.
Week 11 vs. Houston Texans
Washington is a team that is built around its defense and ball-control offense. This team is third in time of possession, but for fantasy purposes, Washington has an implied team total in Week 11 of only 19.75 points. Only Oakland is lower. John Keim reported this week that Jordan Reed is still playing through pain in his toes, which has led to more horizontal this season than previous vertical usage. That still doesn't explain his lack of targets inside the 10 with only two this season. He has just three touchdowns in his last 15 games, compared to 17 touchdowns in the 26 games prior to that. Ultimately, that is what has moved Reed to the cusp of being outside TE1 territory in fantasy this season.
Week 10 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Jordan Reed perfectly encapsulates how frustrating the fantasy TE landscape is in 2018 if you did not get Travis Kelce or Zach Ertz. Twelve targets two weeks ago but for just 38 yards and then just six targets last week for 34 yards as fellow TE Vernon Davis goes for 62 yards. The TE landscape is so bad, Reed still is a low-end TE1 option this week with Paul Richardson going to IR for Washington, but there's nothing exciting about Reed at this point.
Week 8 vs. Atlanta Falcons
For as many targets as Jordan Reed saw last week (12), his production (7-38) was disappointing, but given the landscape of the TE position, it's hard to complain about 12 targets. Clearly, Washington is trying to get their best pass catching and red zone weapon more involved. The Falcons may be fifth against TEs in aFPA, but Reed's involvement in the offense is enough to keep him in the TE1 conversation.
Week 8 at New York Giants
The Washington-New York game has the second-lowest over/under of Week 8 at just 43.5 points. The Giants are 11th in aFPA to TEs. Reed has failed to find the endzone since Week 1, leaving those with Reed on their team frustrated. But considering the landscape of the TE position, Reed's talent and track record still keep him in the low-end TE1 conversation for Week 8. He's just the best option still for Alex Smith, over any receiver on the team.
Week 7 vs. Dallas Cowboys
Washington and Dallas is a game that's expected to be low scoring, as it is the second-lowest total on the Week 7 slate. However with Jamison Crowder out last week, Jordan Reed saw an increase in targets. Nine was a season-high. Part of that might have also been Chris Thompson being out, but Dallas is just 19th in aFPA to TEs this season. Reed has posted at least eight PPR points in all but one game this year. With how thin fantasy TE is, you start Reed when he's healthy.
Week 6 vs. Carolina Panther
RB Chris Thompson and TE Jordan Reed are the primary pass catchers in this offense, with Reed averaging 5.5 targets per game (11th among TEs). It's safe to throw out last week's game against New Orleans, who rank first in aFPA to TEs. Reed should go back to his usual target share this week against a Panthers defense that ranks 22nd in aFPA to TEs. Consider him a middle-tier TE1 in Week 6.
Week 5 at New Orleans Saints
Washington comes off its early bye week and heads to New Orleans for a game that's tied for the second-highest over/under of Week 5's Sunday and Monday slate. The Saints rank first in aFPA to TEs. We believe Alex Smith's tendency to target his RB and TE will weigh more into this match-up though, as Reed is averaging more targets than any Washington wideout. The state of the fantasy TE position also locks Reed into starting lineups any week he's healthy. Don't overthink the match-up here.
