Week 6 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Graham got a very healthy 11 targets last week and hauled in six passes for 76 yards to help offset the Green Bay wide receiving corps being banged up. The Packers will get some, or all, of those guys back this week. But Graham is developing more of a rapport with Aaron Rodgers each week. The 49ers also have allowed a TE touchdown in four of their five games. Graham should be a solid TE1 start.
Week 5 at Detroit Lions
Jimmy Graham finally got into the end zone for the first time since joining the Packers, catching three passes for 21 yards. That was more like what you might be able to expect from Graham in a given week. He's just not elusive enough to be a consistent threat between the 20s. He's been limited this week with a knee injury but should be good to go. The Lions have given up two TE scores and Graham could add to that total.
Week 4 vs. Buffalo Bills
Jimmy Graham has yet to display his TD potential in Green Bay but he did have five catches for 45 yards, giving him 11 receptions the past two weeks. He's dealing with a knee injury, so check his status on Friday. But he's got a great matchup against a Buffalo defense that has given up 18 receptions for 213 yards and a score to opposing tight ends this season.
Week 3 at Washington Redskins
Jimmy Graham busted out last week with six catches for 95 yards and looked much more comfortable in the offense. The Redskins allowed Eric Ebron to score last week and have allowed 16 targets to tight ends already. Graham isn't a top start, but he's certainly a TE1 play this week.
Week 2 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Jimmy Graham didn't make much of an impact in his first game with the Packers, hauling in just two of four targets for eight yards. George Kittle had 90 yards against the Vikings last week, though he's a lot more athletic than Graham at this point in his career. If Aaron Rodgers plays, look for him to try to incorporate Graham a little more. Use Graham as a low-end TE1 and hope for some of those red zone targets.
Week 1 vs. Chicago Bears
Jimmy Graham isn't going to give you any run after the catch at this point in his career. He might not even be a high-volume guy in the passing game. What you're hoping for here are touchdowns. Chicago gave up just four of those to tight ends all of last season, none of which came against the Packers. But Graham is a different beast. And Aaron Rodgers is going to want to show off his new toy. Graham is a decent No. 1 fantasy TE start.
Fantasy Upside
Jimmy Graham is the kind of athletic, pass-catching tight end who should thrive with Aaron Rodgers throwing him the ball. He led all tight ends with 10 TD receptions last season and had 19 red zone targets. That's unlikely to change despite the change of scenery.
Fantasy Downside
At 31, Graham is starting to slow down, as his 9.1 yards per catch might suggest. He also hasn't had more than 65 catches in any of the past three seasons. So there's some fear he might be losing the ability to get open.
2018 Bottom Line
All fears aside, the move to Green Bay should do wonders for Graham. He never saw more than 100 targets in three seasons in Seattle. It wouldn't be at all surprising to see that change in Green Bay. Graham's current ADP has him going in the fifth/sixth round. Given his potential TD production, he should be no worse than the fifth or sixth tight end off the board in any draft. If Graham stays healthy this season, he should help ease the loss of Jordy Nelson.
Week 17 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Graham has recorded 2 receptions in the last three games, and 8 in the last five games. He has basically disappeared from the Seahawks offense the second half of the season.
He has a tough matchup against Arizona this week, who are ranked seventh in aFPA to tight ends. Graham did have 7 receptions in the first meeting versus Arizona this season, and with Seattle trying to make the playoffs, we expect Graham to be active in Week 17. Start him as a solid TE1.
Week 16 at Dallas Cowboys
Jimmy Graham has been non-existent in the Seahawks offense the past two weeks—1 reception for negative one yard. We don't expect this to be a trend and Graham's numbers should improve soon.
He will face the Cowboys this week, who are ranked fifth in aFPA to tight ends. Even with a tough matchup, we still feel Graham is relevant, so start him as a solid TE1 for Week 16.
Week 15 vs. Los Angeles Rams
It was a rare shutout for Jimmy Graham last week as he had 0 targets in the game. He is nursing a bad ankle but is expected to play against the Rams.
The Rams come in ranked 12th in aFPA to tight ends, although they have given up 7 touchdowns to tight ends this season—one of Graham's strengths. In the first meeting against the Rams this season, Graham caught 6 passes for 37 yards and a touchdown. Expect a similar result this week which makes Graham a solid TE1 for Week 15.
