Week 2 vs. New York Giants
J.D. McKissic had a decent snap share in Week 2, playing 36% of the offensive snaps, but he was barely involved in the offense from a production standpoint. McKissic had just one target (which he didn't catch) and one rushing attempt in Week 1. We expected McKissic's targets to slow down in Year 2, but not quite by that much. As long as McKissic is only seeing one target, it's best to keep him out of your lineups for now.
Week 1 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
J.D. McKissic came out of nowhere to lead all running backs in targets a season ago. But a lot has changed since then, most notably a change in quarterback to Ryan Fitzpatrick. Antonio Gibson is also entering his second year, so there's a chance Washington looks to get him more involved now that he's fully settled in. It's hard to see McKissic getting the near-eight targets a game he was seeing by late season last year. McKissic really only has value in PPR formats, and even then he's a low-end RB4 for Week 1.
Fantasy Upside
J.D. McKissic came seemingly out of nowhere last year and ended up leading all running backs in targets with 110. He finished the year with 80 receptions for 589 receiving yards. He especially came on late in the season after Washington’s bye week, averaging 8.6 targets and 6.1 receptions in the final nine games of the season. He wasn’t just a third-down type back either as he averaged 65% of the offensive snaps in those final nine games. He ended the year as the 17th-highest scoring back in full PPR, which is solid production from someone who is second on the depth chart.
Fantasy Downside
While we still expect to see McKissic in a receiving role, we don’t expect him to top 100 targets again. For starters, Antonio Gibson is expected to run more routes and become more involved in the passing game. Washington also added Curtis Samuel in the offseason and had a change at quarterback in Ryan Fitzpatrick. We’re likely to see fewer checkdowns from Fitzpatrick compared to Alex Smith, meaning fewer targets for McKissic. And since McKissic has such a small role as an actual running back (five carries per game last year), and doesn’t find the endzone much (three touchdowns last year), he’s really reliant on those receptions to have value in fantasy.
2021 Bottom Line
Washington underwent many changes in the offseason, and most of them are bad for McKissic. We’d be shocked if he saw the volume he saw last year again in 2021. We’re projecting a massive drop in receptions from his five per game average a year ago to 2.2 this year. McKissic will still be involved, but in a much smaller role that makes him a fringe fantasy candidate. He’s best as a bench stash or a handcuff to Gibson.
Week 17 at Philadelphia Eagles
J.D. McKissic has been a PPR dream this season, and finished with another strong game last week with an 8-77-1 game as a receiver (he added 15 yards on the ground). McKissic saw 10 targets in that game, which is his fifth game this season with 10+ targets, and his third in his last four outings. McKissic benefitted from Antonio Gibson and Terry McLaurin's injuries last week, although he's had a big role in this offense all season. He gets a tough matchup against the Eagles this week, who have held running backs in check when it comes to receiving. Philly has allowed the eighth-fewest receptions and seventh-fewest receiving yards to RBs this season. Still, there's reason to like McKissic this week, especially if McLaurin sits again. McKissic is a strong RB2 play in PPR formats and more of an RB3/flex in standard.
Week 16 vs. Carolina Panthers
Washington realized Peyton Barber wasn't any good and decided to give J.D. McKissic some more touches last week. He finished with 13 carries for 51 yards and added nine receptions for 56 yards and a touchdown as a receiver. Antonio Gibson could return this week, which would limit some of McKissic's touches. But McKissic has been valuable even with Gibson active, mostly because of his role as a receiver. He has four games with 10+ targets over his last seven games. McKissic is a solid RB2 play this week, even if Gibson is active. It's also worth noting that Terry McLaurin is doubtful to play, so McKissic should see a slight boost in targets this week.
Week 15 vs. Seattle Seahawks
J.D. McKissic led Washington in playing time (65%) among running backs in Antonio Gibson's absence, playing slightly more than Peyton Barber (48%). McKissic had just one less touch (13) than Barber (14), but was much more productive (86 scrimmage yards vs. 38). Barber is the better bet to score on a goal-line touchdown, but McKissic is the better bet to finish with more yards, especially as a receiving threat. McKissic faces a Seahawks defense this week that has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards to backs this season. However, the Seahawks have allowed the eighth-most receiving yards to backs, and that's where McKissic typically shines. Assuming Gibson is out again, McKissic is a solid RB2 play in Week 15.
Week 14 at San Francisco 49ers
J.D. McKissic was back to being his catch-happy self again last week as Washington turned to him more after Antonio Gibson's toe injury. McKissic saw 10 targets, catching all of them for 70 yards. Since Week 4 (when McKissic really started getting involved), McKissic has averaged 5.8 receptions per game. We're projecting him to hit that 5+ reception mark this week, especially with Gibson's likely inactive tag. McKissic jumps to an RB2 play in PPR formats and more of an RB3/flex play in standard.
Week 13 at Pittsburgh Steelers
J.D. McKissic has settled way down since seeing 29 targets in Weeks 9 and 10. In the two games since, he's had six targets with five receptions. Despite the target dropoff, McKissic has still been involved in the offense. Last week, he still played a solid 41% of the offensive snaps. Even though that's a season-low for him, it's still nearly half of the offensive plays (especially when you consider Washington turned to Peyton Barber late in the game in Week 12). However, McKissic may struggle this week as he faces a Steelers defense that's allowed the fewest total receptions and receiving yards to running backs this year. In fact, Pittsburgh has only allowed an average of three receptions per game to RBs in 2020. McKissic isn't much more than a desperation flex play in Week 13.
Week 12 at Cowboys
After seeing 29 targets from Week 9 to Week 10, J.D. McKissic settled down last week as he finished 3-26 as a receiver. He added 43 yards on six carries for a nice total of 69 scrimmage yards. While the target usage was obviously going to drop off, McKissic still stayed relevant with a solid game. One interesting note, however, is Peyton Barber saw eight carries in Week 11 despite previously averaging 2.9 carries (after Week 1). McKissic is more useful in a pass-heavy game flow, but he remains relevant even when he's not seeing 10+ targets in a game. He'll be a viable flex play this week in a favorable matchup against the Cowboys. However, it is worth noting the Cowboys have allowed the second-fewest receptions and the fewest receiving yards to running backs this season. That was evident in McKissic's first game against the Cowboys this season (Week 7) when he finished with just two receptions for 16 yards.
Week 11 vs. Cincinnati Bengals
J.D. McKissic has seen 29 targets in his last two games (14 in Week 9, 15 in Week 10), which is ridiculous. He has more targets this season (62) than guys like Julio Jones, Jarvis Landry and Justin Jefferson. He's combined for 16 receptions for 108 yards as a receiver in those two games, while getting limited work as a runner (11 carries, 23 yards). He did score his first touchdown of the season last week, but that won't be common. McKissic is mostly a flex option in PPR formats due to his high volume of targets. However, this week he faces a Bengals defense that has allowed the third-fewest receptions, and fourth-fewest receiving yards to running backs this season.
