Week 3 vs. Ravens
Williams has maintained a role in this backfield, as he's been given 28 opportunities, which is only seven fewer than D'Andre Swift. Having said that, the veteran has played nearly half as many snaps, so we have to consider him the 1B in this situation. Williams has made an impact in the passing game just like Swift, totaling 12 targets already. It's likely that he'll continue to play a role in this backfield, but Swift has much more upside.
Williams is the much riskier play out of these two running backs because he's not as explosive as Swift, so it will be tough for the veteran to have an efficient game against this stout defense. I would not feel comfortable starting Williams in my FLEX in this game, even though it's a projected shootout. Leave him on the bench for this week, but if you're desperate, you'll have to hope that he falls into the endzone.
Week 2 at Packers
Williams had a solid performance in Week 1, rushing nine times for 54 yards and a touchdown while catching 8-of-9 targets for 56 yards, finishing as the RB4 in half-PPR. While he outscored teammate D'Andre Swift, Swift played 30% more of the snaps, so it's clear who the 1A is in this backfield. Williams still carries some upside as a FLEX play given his receiving ability.
This is a revenge game for Williams against the Packers. While these narratives rarely play out the way we want them to, it wouldn't be surprising to see head coach Dan Campbell try his best to get Williams a touchdown against his former team. This is a good matchup against a Packers defense that struggles against the run. They gave up 133 yards on 31 carries to Alvin Kamara and Tony Jones last week. We could see Williams get a few receptions once again with the Lions likely to fall behind early.
Week 1 vs. San Francisco 49ers
Jamaal Williams makes his Lions debut against the 49ers. Williams put up 119 rush attempts and 35 targets in his final season with the Packers and we could see similar usage here with the Lions. Having said that, this is D’Andre Swift’s backfield. Williams is only worth rostering as insurance for Swift or as running back depth to start when you’re in a bind during bye weeks. He’s a low upside RB3/FLEX in this tough matchup against the 49ers.
The upside with Williams in this game is if the Lions opt to limit Swift’s workload given his lack of participation throughout training camp due to a groin injury. However, given the pattern we’ve seen with other starting running backs coming back from injuries (Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, and Nick Chubb last season), it’s hard to see a scenario where Swift is severely limited. Leave Williams on your bench in this game.
Fantasy Upside
Jamaal Williams rushed for 505 yards and two touchdowns on 119 carries (4.2 Y/A) in 14 games last season. He also caught 31-of-35 targets for 236 yards and one touchdown, finishing as RB42 in half-PPR points per game. Williams is slated to play a role as offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn’s “A-Back,” which means that he’s their primary runner between the tackles. We could see the Lions try to establish the run given their limitations on the perimeter, but it’s tough to envision a scenario where they can maintain this strategy since their defense will likely thrust them into shootouts. In order for Williams to reach his upside, he would need an injury to Swift. This would allow the veteran back to take over pass-catching duties and put him on the RB2 radar.
Fantasy Downside
D’Andre Swift is 5-foot-8, 212-pounds with excellent receiving skills, so he has the physique and skillset to take over as a true three-down running back. It’s not out of the realm of possibility to see Swift start off hot, causing the Lions to give him even more touches. This would render Williams as merely a backup who you draft as a lottery ticket in the event that the starter gets injured. Even if Swift doesn’t get more touches than projected, there’s a chance that he dominates red-zone carries. Last season, Swift had 19 red-zone attempts in 13 games. Part of Williams’ appeal is the chance that he’ll get the red-zone carries, so this would definitely remove some of his luster as an RB4 with upside.
Bottom Line
Williams is currently being drafted as RB44 (142.4 ADP) in Underdog fantasy leagues. He’s one of the few running backs who have standalone value as the clear-cut RB2 on their team. Williams would become a volume-based RB2 if Swift were forced to miss time with injury. While we can expect a decline in efficiency in moving from an elite Packers offense to the mediocre Lions, Williams should still play a role. He’s worth targeting as your RB4 or RB5 because he’ll provide depth but also have enough of a role to be started if you’re in a bind due to injuries.
Week 15 vs Carolina
Williams had another down game last week against the Lions, as he carried the ball 10 times for 38 yards. Williams was inexplicably fed early again Detroit, accumulating touches over Aaron Jones. However, it did not take long for Jones to take over the backfield and leave Williams on the sideline. Williams is exclusively a handcuff at this point, seeing as his once useful role in the passing game has been diminished. Managers should look elsewhere for a flex option.
Week 14 at Detroit
Williams had one of his more unproductive games of the season last week against the Philadelphia Eagles finishing with five carries for 26 yards and catching both of his targets for 10 yards. Williams has been serviceable as a flex this season; however, Aaron Jones’ workload has been increasing ever since his return from injury. The latter fact will render Williams as RB3/flex in Week 14.
Week 13 vs Philadelphia
Williams had a solid game last week against the Chicago Bears, as he ran the ball 17 times for 73 yards and a touchdown. Williams shared a 50-50 time split with Aaron Jones who also had 17 carries; however, it was Williams who managed to get the only rushing touchdown. Williams has been reliable as an RB2/RB3 this season as Green Bay has frequently featured him in the passing game, but it was surprising to see Williams get so much work on the ground last week. Keep Williams as an RB2/3 in a tough matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 13.
Week 12 vs Chicago
Williams finished last week with five carries for 12 yards and had one reception for four yards and a touchdown. Williams was fine in his typical complementary role to Aaron Jones last week and salvaged his fantasy game with his lone score. In a tough matchup against the Bears who are ranked third in aFPA to RBs this season, Williams should remain a solid RB3 in Week 12.
Week 11 at Indianapolis
Williams finished last week against Jacksonville with eight carries for 30 yards and caught three passes for 24 yards. Working in his usual role as Jones’ breather back, Williams managed to get a total of 11 touches to Jones’ 18. When there aren’t touchdowns being scored, the production between these two backs is quite similar, and given that Jones hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 4, Williams’ value as an RB3/flex is very appealing. With another round of bye weeks, Williams will continue to hold his value.
Week 10 vs Jacksonville
Williams missed last week’s game against San Francisco as he was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list, however, he is active and will be ready to roll against Week 10 opponent Jacksonville. In the two games prior to this, Williams filled in for workhorse Aaron Jones while he was out with injury and averaged a rushing stat line of 17.5-76-0.6 with an average receiving line of 5-32. It’s clear Williams can fill in for Jones when need be, but now with Jones back from injury, Williams will settle back into his RB3/flex role in Week 10.
