Week 9 vs Buffalo
Doug Baldwin had another pedestrian performance as the Seahawks passing game continues to struggle. The veteran receiver had four catches for 51 yards and has not a touchdown reception since Week 3.
The matchup is good for Baldwin this week, as Buffalo is 25th in aFPA to wide receivers. It might help if QB Russell Wilson gets his act together and gets completely healthy, but for now, Baldwin ranks a low-end WR2 for Week 9.
Week 8 at New Orleans
Doug Baldwin caught six passes for 69 yards and was targeted nine times last week. The nine targets is significant because it's the most since Week 3. Baldwin had such a good year last year, but it hasn't carried over into 2016. He only has one 100+ yard receiving game and two touchdowns.
Things could get better this week as the 'Hawks face the Saints, who have struggled on defense. If Seattle targets Baldwin like last week, expect better results. Start Baldwin as a solid WR1 for Week 8.
Week 7 at Arizona
Doug Baldwin has put up big numbers in two of the Seahawks five games, but the last two have found him trying to get back the connection he had with Russell Wilson during the second half of last season. Baldwin has had only nine targets over the last two games, which has led to just eight catches and zero touchdowns.
Although some wide receivers have had some success against the Cardinals, we are waiting to see the 2015 Doug Baldwin on a consistent basis before we elevate his fantasy value. Start Baldwin for Week 7, but only as a high-end WR3 or flex.
Week 4 at New York Jets
QB Russell Wilson should play this week, which is good news for Doug Baldwin. He had a monster game last week against San Francisco, catching eight passes for 164 yards and a touchdown. The Seahawks No. 1 receivers looks the part and could have another big game this Sunday.
The Jets are 31st in aFPA to wide receivers. They have had trouble stopping the passing game, and that fares will for Seattle as ling as Wilson stays on the field. Start Baldwin in all leagues and formats as a high-end WR2 for Week 4.
Week 3 vs San Francisco
Seattle's offense has struggled, and Doug Baldwin and the passing game have been affected. After a solid opener, Baldwin was targeted only six times and caught three passes for 20 yards in Week 2. These are the kind of games that Baldwin used to have that frustrated owners who took a flyer on him.
Baldwin had eight catches for 79 yards in two meetings against the Niners last season. San Fran is ranked 18th in aFPA to wide receivers right now, so there is no matchup advantage here.
Start Baldwin for Week 3, but only as a WR3 or flex until Seattle sorts out its offense.
Week 2 at Los Angles
Doug Baldwin had a solid Week 1 with nine catches for 92 yards and a touchdown. He was the most-targeted Seahawk player in the passing game, which solidifies the fact he is the No. 1 guy for QB Russell Wilson. Baldwin had to like that Wilson threw the ball a career-high 43 times, although Seattle would probably prefer him to be around 30 attempts instead.
It's hard to get a read on the Los Angeles pass defense who only gave up 170 yards, but against a team in San Francisco that doesn't have a potent passing attack.
Baldwin should continue to put up numbers like he did last Sunday and will be a solid WR2 on the road in Week 2.
Week 1 vs. Miami
Doug Baldwin had his best season in 2016, establishing himself as the Seahawks No. 1 receiver. He had career-highs in catches, receiving yardage and touchdowns. The 14 times he reached the end zone tied for the NFL lead for receivers.
The only issue is can he repeat those numbers? Even if he was the No. 1 guy, he sometimes didn't look that way. QB Russell WIlson likes to share the wealth, and even though Baldwin was very good, it was sometimes Jermaine Kearse or Tyler Lockett who was Wilson's favorite target.
Baldwin has a good matchup for Week 1 at home against a Miami pass defense that was one of the worst in the NFL last year. However, we are being cautious ranking Baldwin as a low-end WR2 for the opener based on the fact he isn't always the main guy in Seattle.
Fantasy Upside
Doug Baldwin has been fighting the underdog tag his whole career. He went undrafted in 2011 and worked his way to be the Seahawks No. 1 receiver. He is undersized and is not a blazer, but he works hard on and off the field and that's what has put him in a position to succeed. During the second half of last season, he caught 47 passes for 724 yards and 12 touchdowns which was second best in NFL. With Russell Wilson finally finding himself as a quality NFL passer, Baldwin became his favorite target.
Fantasy Downside
The 'Hawks have found ways to get other receivers involved and until the second half, a different receiver looked like the No. 1 guy each week. Baldwin also doesn't have speed so his 14 TD receptions might have been a fluke.
2016 Bottom Line
If Baldwin can continue what he did in the second half, he will be a steal somewhere in the fourth or fifth round. He is the considered a low-end WR2 and that's about where he is going in most drafts. If you think Seattle's passing game is for real, you might want to consider him even a little earlier.
Week 19 at Carolina
Take last week's game and throw it in the garbage. The weather was a major issue for all fantasy stats in Minnesota. Doug Baldwin has been on fire and we expect him to play a major role in Sunday's game. He was limited in the first meeting with the Panthers but that was when the Seahawks were playing like the Seattle of old.
The Panthers are actually only ranked 18th in aFPA to wide receivers and even though Josh Norman could be matched up with Baldwin, we like his outlook. Baldwin ranks one of the top fantasy wide receivers of Divisional Playoff weekend.
Week 18 at Minnesota
Last week, Doug Baldwin was held without a touchdown for the first time since November 22nd. Along with QB Russell Wilson, Baldwin has been red-hot, especially scoring TDs. In the first meeting with the Vikings, he scored two touchdowns along with 94 receiving yards and five catches.
There are some very good receivers going this weekend and Baldwin is in the second tier right behind them (Brown, Green, Hopkins). The weather could be a factor with freezing temperatures expected. Although Seattle has been successful with passing game, we could see the return of Marshawn Lynch spark the running game. Baldwin is still a great play this week as he has been outstanding the second half of the season. He is definitely worth a start Wild Card Weekend.
