Fantasy Upside
Curtis Samuel struggled to stay on the field as a rookie, but his role in the offense grew over the course of last season. During the first half of 2018, Samuel saw the field on only 24% of the Panthers’ offensive snaps. Over the second half, that number catapulted to 68%. He finished with 494 receiving yards and five touchdowns, and he found the end zone two additional times in the running game. Samuel should continue to develop in the offense and be used as a versatile threat. He’ll line up all over the field, and his playmaking ability allows him to make the most of his opportunities. The departure of Devin Funchess in free agency opens up 79 targets as well, giving Samuel significant upside.
Fantasy Downside
Samuel’s injury history is concerning. He only played in eight games as a rookie and is only 5-foot-11 and 195 pounds. Samuel is also still more prospect than product at this point. He’s yet to have 100 yards in a single game and he’ll still likely be at least the third option in the passing game behind Christian McCaffrey and D.J. Moore. The bulk of the vacated targets from Funchess may very well end up going Moore’s way. Also, Cam Newton is coming off shoulder surgery and if his body continues to break down, it’ll be hard for any pass-catchers in Carolina to succeed.
2019 Bottom Line
Samuel is currently going in the 10th round in 12-team leagues, a full four rounds lower than Moore. However, we have the two ranked very similarly – less than five players apart in our current rankings – and you can argue Samuel has just as much upside with his versatility and his knack for finding the end zone. He’s risky for sure, but with how they used him to close out the season, the departure of Devin Funchess and his playmaking skill set, he’s a bargain at his current ADP.
Week 17 at New Orleans Saints
Curtis Samuel only had 41 yards last week but he caught seven passes and was targeted 13 times. He was looked to early and often, and his big-play potential gives him upside as a boom-bust option. If he gets another 13 targets, he’s liable to break one for long distance at any moment.
The Saints have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year, and they have consistently given up big numbers to the secondary options in the passing game, including 11 catches and 115 yards against JuJu Smith-Schuster last week. Samuel is super risky with the quarterback situation in Carolina, but for desperate fantasy owners, he has some deep-league WR3 upside.
Week 16 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Curtis Samuel had a disappointing game against the Saints on Monday night. He struggled along with the rest of the Panthers offense, catching only one pass for 17 yards. He was targeted four times, however, and seems to still be a larger part of the offense than Devin Funchess, but it was disappointing to see him fail to take advantage of what should’ve been a pretty good matchup.
This week, Samuel has another good matchup against the Falcons, but he’s way too risky to count on with backup quarterback Taylor Heinicke starting the rest of the season. With Cam Newton shut down due to issues with his shoulder, the Panthers’ receiving corps is going to be difficult to trust.
Week 15 vs. New Orleans Saints
Curtis Samuel hasn’t scored a touchdown over the last two weeks, but he’s been targeted 19 times in the passing game and has 168 receiving yards. Samuel has taken advantage of additional opportunities with Devin Funchess hobbled, so much so that he may have taken over his job.
Samuel is risky, but he has a ton of upside as a big-play option down the field for the Panthers. This week, he faces a Saints defense that has allowed the most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this year. Samuel is a big play waiting to happen and will likely draw secondary attention from the Saints defense, which may open up big possibilities for him. He’s a risky start, but is worth considering in all leagues due to a great matchup and his recent targets.
Week 14 at Cleveland Browns
Curtis Samuel didn’t score a touchdown last week against the Buccaneers, but he had a season-high six receptions for 88 yards. Samuel has taken a larger role on offense as the Panthers prioritize youth and playmaking around quarterback Cam Newton. Samuel is a big-play threat every time he touches the ball, making him a high risk-reward option in all leagues.
This week, Samuel faces a Browns defense that has allowed the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers this year, including a pair of touchdowns to the Bengals just two weeks ago. Samuel is a boom-bust player with his high upside, and fantasy owners who feel lucky should consider plugging him into the WR3 spot if they can afford a little risk.
Week 13 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
They used to say all Cris Carter did was catch touchdowns. Well, it seems like all Curtis Samuel does is score touchdowns. Samuel has six touchdowns this year off of 24 offensive touches. He’s literally scoring a touchdown every fourth time he touches the ball. While that’s clearly not sustainable, it’s worth noting in quick-strike leagues and worth considering for future value if he becomes a focal point of the offense. The dude is a playmaker.
Samuel has some Hail-Mary potential this week against the Buccaneers. Only the Saints, Eagles and Titans have allowed more fantasy points to the wide receiver position this year, and the Buccaneers have even allowed 95 yards and a touchdown on wide receiver rushes. Samuel is way too risky to count on in most leagues, but in a great matchup, he’s worth gambling on if you’re desperate.
Week 10 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Curtis Samuel was dynamite against the Buccaneers last week, scoring on the ground and through the air. However, he was only targeted four times, caught two passes, and gained 25 yards receiving to go with his one 33-yard run. Samuel has big-play upside in any given week, but his lack of consistent usage makes him hard to count on. This week, the Panthers may find themselves throwing the ball a lot, but it’s too risky to count on Samuel to get a large enough share of the looks to warrant serious fantasy consideration. Fantasy owners should look elsewhere, and only add Samuel in dynasty formats with large rosters.
Week 10 vs. Miami Dolphins
The Panthers said they wanted more speed on the field when they traded Kelvin Benjamin. Curtis Samuel may be pushed by Russell Shepard for snaps, but he definitely provides more speed than the rest of the receivers on Carolina's roster. Samuel was on the field for 75% of the team’s snaps last week, compared to 58% for Shepard, and he was targeted 5 times. He ended up with 3 catches and 1 carry for a total of only 37 yards, but it was good to see him more active in the offense. Samuel is a long-shot to have in your lineup, but he’s worth picking up and has upside against an inconsistent Miami defense if you’re absolutely desperate.
Fantasy Upside
Ted Ginn Jr. had 95 targets last year as a Carolina Panther, and while rookie Curtis Samuel isn’t the same player, he does duplicate some of the same skills Ginn brought to the offense. Samuel is a versatile threat who may get some touches out of the backfield in addition to contributing to the passing game. Along with fellow rookie Christian McCaffrey, Samuel is probably already one of the top threats on the team to take the top off the defense. Samuel has a lot of upside in quick-strike leagues and best ball formats due to his big-play potential.
Fantasy Downside
Samuel has already been limited in camp with a nagging hamstring. While he seems to be fine, it’s always concerning to see speedy guys deal with hamstring issues. His target share is likely to be low with Greg Olsen at TE and Kelvin Benjamin eating up 118 targets last year and now two years removed from a knee injury that kept him out of 2015 entirely. Consistency will be an issue for Samuel, although he’s likely to make a few highlight reels.
2017 Bottom Line
Samuel is a nice dynasty option as he looks to improve and gain an increased role in the offense while he develops. However, the depth chart looks too crowded right now to assume a big impact as a rookie. In most leagues, Samuel should be considered as nothing more than a late-round flier in case he can earn a Tyreek Hill-esque role in an offense that desperately needs playmakers.
