Week 4 at Atlanta Falcons
Curtis Samuel was activated off injured reserve this week, so he'll be making his Washington debut in Week 4. It's a little tough to predict how Samuel will perform in his first game back. He'll be playing with a different quarterback, he's returning from injury, and it's his first game with his new team. Samuel has a lot of question marks, which is why he should be viewed as a WR4 this week against the Falcons.
Fantasy Upside
Curtis Samuel is coming off a career season where he finished with 1,051 scrimmage yards (851 receiving, 200 rushing). Despite seeing fewer targets in 2020 than in 2019, he upped his production by converting more of his targets into receptions, setting a career-high with 77 catches. This offseason he joined Washington where he’ll reunite with OC Scott Turner and HC Ron Rivera. He gets an upgrade at quarterback, going from Teddy Bridgewater to Ryan Fitzpatrick. We’d expect Washington to continue to use Samuel as an offensive weapon, giving him carries in addition to receptions, which will boost his floor.
Fantasy Downside
Samuel reuniting with Turner and Rivera may actually not be great as the receiver’s numbers were worse when being in that offense. Samuel had a 51.4 catch percentage in 2019, and that jumped to 79.4% in 2020 as he was used in a more efficient way in Joe Brady’s system. Plus, Washington has other playmakers in Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic who can eat up those shorter passes that Samuel excelled at in his 2020 role, which led to his breakout season. Samuel also began training camp on the physically unable to perform list AND the COVID-19/Reserve list. So he’ll be off to a slower start in his new environment.
2021 Bottom Line
Expect a much different role for Samuel in 2021 than we saw in 2020. Last year Samuel saw a lot of volume, finishing with 118 total touches which ranked second among all wideouts behind only Stefon Diggs. We’d expect him to be used more as a deep threat in Washington, which would pair well with Fitzpatrick’s deep throw accuracy, but will certainly affect Samuel in half or full PPR formats. We like Samuel as a strong WR3 this year and expect him to finish in the top 40 WRs.
Week 17 vs. New Orleans Saints
Curtis Samuel was active in the run game last week against Washington, rushing seven times for 52 yards. He also caught all five of his targets for 106 yards, giving him a strong fantasy outing, despite not finding the end zone. Samuel had a great run of five touchdowns over five games in the middle of the season, but has been scoreless in his last four. Still, he has 70 catches on 86 targets this year and is clearly an active part of the offense.
This week, Samuel faces a Saints defense that ranks seventh in aFPA to opposing wide receivers this year. Expect another busy day of targets, giving him upside, despite a difficult matchup. We have him ranked as a WR2 option this week, with a high floor in PPR formats.
Week 16 at Washington Football Team
Curtis Samuel caught only four balls for 42 yards last week, but he led the team with nine targets and now has at least nine targets in four of his past six games. The team is using Samuel, even if his yardage hasn’t been consistent. He’s had more than 100 yards just once all season, and he’s hit 70 yards just three times.
This week, Samuel faces a Washington defense that ranks ninth in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Despite the bad matchup, his targets give him upside and he should be active as a slightly risky WR3 option in most leagues, with a little bump in full PPR formats.
Week 15 at Green Bay Packers
Curtis Samuel had a solid day last week against the Broncos, catching seven of nine targets for 68 yards, and adding two carries for 22 yards on the ground. Samuel has been pretty solid over the second half of the season, even though he hasn’t found the end zone in either of the past two games. Even with D.J. Moore returning this week, he should still be an active part of the offense against the Packers, who will likely keep the pressure on Carolina to keep throwing.
Danny Amendola led the Lions in receiving yards out of the slot last week against the Packers, and since Samuel lines up on the slot on 60.8% of his offensive snaps, he may see some matchups to exploit. He should be considered a WR2 option with significant upside.
Week 14 vs. Denver Broncos
Curtis Samuel is producing better than the third wide receiver on a moderate offensive team should be. He’s averaging 5.25 targets per game, and he has five touchdowns – including two on the ground. He’s scored double-digit PPR points in five of his last six games, including catching five balls for 72 yards against the Vikings before the bye last week. The Panthers clearly view him as a key part of their passing game.
This week, Samuel faces a Broncos defense that ranks second in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Even in a bad matchup, Samuel is worth considering as a WR2 option in most leagues with D.J. Moore shelved. Expect an uptick in targets for the playmaking Samuel.
Week 12 at Minnesota Vikings
Curtis Samuel found the end zone against the Lions last week and now has five touchdowns in the past five games. He also caught eight balls for 70 yards and was targeted 10 times. The team seems to be making a concerted effort to get the ball into Samuel’s hands more often, and they’ve been rewarded with significant production. He’s a playmaker with a nose for the end zone.
This week, Samuel faces a Vikings defense that ranks 14th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Samuel isn’t without risk, as he remains third on the depth chart, but his upside makes him worth considering as a solid WR3 option in all league formats.
Week 11 vs. Detroit Lions
Curtis Samuel was held to just 12 total yards last week on three receptions and three carries. He was targeted five times, but had a hard time against the stingy Tampa Bay defense. Samuel was coming off four touchdowns in the previous three games though, and it seems like the Panthers are trying to get him the ball more to take advantage of his versatility and playmaking.
This week, Samuel is a WR3 option against the Lions, who rank 15th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Watch the status of Teddy Bridgewater, who is dealing with a sprained knee. If Teddy sits, fantasy owners might want to sit Samuel as well.
Week 10 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Curtis Samuel had a great game against the Chiefs last week, catching all nine balls thrown his way for 105 yards and a touchdown, adding 13 yards on the ground. Samuel has four touchdowns in the past three weeks combined, and it seems like the Panthers are making a strong attempt to get him the ball.
This week, Samuel faces a Buccaneers defense that ranks 12th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. While Samuel’s propensity to find the end zone makes him an intriguing option in all fantasy leagues, the tough matchup and the fact that he’s still third on the depth chart still bring an element of risk. We have him ranked as a low-end WR3 option with some boom-or-bust potential.
Week 9 at Kansas City Chiefs
Curtis Samuel had a pair of touchdowns last week against the Falcons, including one rushing, and wound up with 54 yards on four receptions and three carries. Don’t expect multiple touchdowns to be a regular thing, but it was good to see the Panthers getting him the ball regularly. He now has at least seven touches in three straight games, and has two rushing touchdowns in consecutive weeks.
This week, Samuel faces a Chiefs defense that ranks seventh in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. While Samuel is risky as the third – maybe fourth if Christian McCaffrey returns – option in the passing game behind D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson, he has upside in this matchup. If the Chiefs get up early, the Panthers might throw the ball 40-50 times, which should benefit all the receivers. If you’re desperate in a deep league, Samuel has some risky WR3 potential.
