Week 8 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Curtis Samuel returned to action against the Saints last week, catching all six balls thrown his way for 48 yards. He also scored on a five-yard rush, showing he still hasn’t lost his gadget-ability. Samuel actually has four career rushing touchdowns, and he ran for 130 yards a season ago.
This week, Samuel has some upside in a great matchup, but since he’s third on the depth chart behind Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore, it’s hard to recommend starting him. The matchup gives him some desperation value, but in most leagues, he should remain on waivers.
Week 6 vs. Chicago Bears
Curtis Samuel is still getting work as the WR3 in the Panthers’ offense, but he’s not putting up consistent enough numbers to warrant legit fantasy consideration. He had five catches and 36 yards las week, and is averaging three carries and 12.6 rushing yards per game, but he’s yet to score a touchdown and has only two targets in the red zone. Samuel’s production looks to be too volatile, at best, to warrant serious lineup consideration while he remains third on the depth chart.
Update: Looks like Samuel is out, so be sure to get him out of your lineup (if he was in there in the first place).
Week 1 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Curtis Samuel was expected to have a breakout year last season, but fell short of expectations with just 54 catches, 627 yards and four touchdowns. He did add 130 yards and a touchdown rushing, but it was still less than expected for the playmaker. This year, we’ll see if he can make progress with a new coach, a new offense and a new quarterback in Teddy Bridgewater. He gets a nice matchup against the Raiders, who ranked 26th last season in aFPA to opposing wide receivers, but until we see exactly what his role is going to be on this team, it’s risky to have him in your lineup.
Fantasy Upside
Curtis Samuel is a versatile threat with a nose for the end zone. He’s scored 14 touchdowns over the past two seasons, including three on run plays, despite only touching the ball 120 times during that span. He eclipsed 100 targets for the first time in his career last season and seems to have carved a nice role for himself in the Carolina offense. He’s a playmaker and was healthy all of last season for the first time after struggling with injuries in his first two years.
Fantasy Downside
Though he was targeted 105 times last season, he caught just 54 of those balls. While the quarterback play was bad, and Sports Info Solutions has just 70 of those targets as “catchable,” a 51% catch rate and seven drops is definitely worrisome. Samuel also will struggle to get as many snaps out wide as he did last year with the addition of deep threat Robby Anderson from the Jets. It’s difficult to imagine Samuel improving on his totals from last season (54 catches, 627 yards) when he’s likely to play primarily in the slot. He took about 32% of his offensive snaps from that spot a year ago.
2020 Bottom Line
There are things to love and things to hate about Samuel as a viable fantasy option this season. Throw in the changes at quarterback and on the coaching staff and you have quite a conundrum. It’s a good thing he doesn’t cost much – 13th round in 12-team leagues – making him more of a lottery ticket than someone to be counted on as a starter. The truth is we don’t know how well this Panther offense is going to hum this season, so taking advantage of uncertainty and rostering Samuel at his very reasonable ADP is worth the risk. If he’s virtually replaced by Robby Anderson, you can always drop him after the first couple of weeks.
Week 17 vs. New Orleans Saints
Curtis Samuel was held to just 17 yards on a pair of receptions last week as the Panthers struggled to move the ball offensively against the Colts. He could benefit from additional targets if D.J. Moore misses this week after suffering a concussion, but the Carolina offense looks terrible with Will Grier at the helm and the Saints have an above-average defense, tied for 14th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Look elsewhere if possible.
Week 16 at Indianapolis Colts
Curtis Samuel found the end zone for the seventh time this season against the Seahawks last week. However, he was held to just 31 yards on five catches. He did add 23 yards on four carries, which is nice, and he’s carried the ball now 11 times over his last four games. Samuel has upside against a vulnerable Colts secondary this week, but with the Panthers making a switch to rookie Will Grier at quarterback and Samuel’s general touchdown-dependence for fantasy production, it’s hard to trust him in most leagues. He should be considered a low-end WR3 at best in large leagues, and fantasy owners should look elsewhere if possible while we see what the Grier-led Panthers look like.
Week 15 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Curtis Samuel had only 25 yards on a pair of receptions last week against the Falcons in what should’ve been a great matchup, although he did add 17 yards on three carries. Samuel hasn’t been nearly as prolific as fantasy owners were hoping heading into this season, despite his six touchdowns.
This week, Samuel faces a Seahawks defense that ranks 20th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers, so there’s some upside for him. However, until he shows he can put up some consistent numbers, fantasy owners are banking on him finding the end zone, which is too risky in most fantasy leagues during the playoffs. We have him outside our top-40 this week, making him a bench player in most formats.
Week 14 at Atlanta Falcons
Curtis Samuel had a nice game against Washington last week, catching four of seven balls thrown his way for 65 yards and a touchdown. It was a tough loss for the Panthers, but Samuel scored his sixth touchdown of the season, and fifth in his last seven games. Samuel has yet to eclipse 100 yards in a game this year, however, making it difficult to trust him.
This week, Samuel has what looks like a good matchup against the Falcons. They rank 24th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers this season, but he was held to just 25 yards against them three weeks ago. Samuel is a fringe WR3 option due to his inconsistency, but has upside with a potentially nice matchup and high scoring potential.
Week 13 vs. Washington Redskins
Curtis Samuel struggled last week against the Saints, catching just one of the four balls thrown his way for nine yards. He was able to add 40 yards rushing to his total, but his final numbers were still a disappointment for fantasy owners hoping for WR3 numbers. Samuel hasn’t quite taken the step expected of him when the hype train was in full effect over the off-season (guilty as charged here), but he still shows flashes of what he can bring to the offense. He’s scored five touchdowns this season and is averaging 7.2 targets per game.
This week, Samuel faces a Washington defense that ranks eighth in aFPA to opposing wide receivers and is coming off a great performance against the Lions’ top-level receiving corps – albeit with Yosemite Driskel behind center. In a tough matchup, however, Samuel should be concerned no more than a risky WR3 option in deep leagues, and fantasy owners should look elsewhere if possible.
Week 12 at New Orleans Saints
Curtis Samuel only had 25 yards last week against the Falcons in what should’ve been a very good matchup. However, he was targeted seven times and he’s averaging 7.5 targets per game this year. He’s been productive without being particularly spectacular this season, which has been frustrating for fantasy owners hoping for legit WR2 numbers out of him.
This week, we have him as a fringe WR3 option in a tough matchup against the Saints. Only the Patriots and Chargers rank higher in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. While Samuel should continue to get targets, fantasy owners with more stable options in better matchups should consider benching him this week in most leagues.
