Week 8 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (London)
That's back-to-back dreadful games for Courtland Sutton, who only managed a 3-23-0 line against the Jets with Brett Rypien under center. It looks like Russell Wilson is set to return in Week 8 when the Broncos travel to London to take on the Jaguars early Sunday. That's great news for Sutton who has always commanded a large target share with Wilson starting at quarterback. The Jaguars have a mediocre pass defense, meaning Sutton is in good position to return to WR2 status this week with Wilson back throwing him deep balls.
Week 7 vs. New York Jets
Courtland Sutton fell victim to J.C. Jackson's coverage and Russell Wilson's inconsistent accuracy in Week 6 when he played 100% of the snaps but only caught two balls on three targets for 14 scoreless yards. Sutton's three targets are an aberration rather than something to be concerned about as he has not seen fewer than seven in any other game this season. Sutton and the Broncos will take on a surprising Jets team this week that includes a defense that places near the middle of the league in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing wideouts. Despite the slow Week 6, Sutton is a clear fantasy starter in Week 7 against the Jets due to his strong target share from Russell Wilson.
Week 6 at Los Angeles Chargers
Even Courtland Sutton suffered from the Broncos' brutal offensive display last Thursday. Sutton still saw 11 targets, but only recorded five receptions for 74 scoreless yards as the Broncos continue to struggle to score points. Sutton ranks 10th in the league in targets through five weeks and has a robust 28% target share from Russell Wilson. He also ranks third in air yards, fifth in red zone targets, sixth in receiving yards, and ninth in receptions. Sutton is getting a huge workload. The only thing holding him back from WR1 status is Denver's general offensive ineptitude and Russell Wilson's poor play, resulting in one total touchdown for Sutton in five games. Sutton is a surefire fantasy starter just based on volume, but he could be frustrating some weeks unless the Broncos experience a sudden offensive breakthrough. Keep him in lineups as a WR2 for a Week 6 date with the Chargers.
Week 5 vs. Indianapolis Colts
Courtland Sutton is the clear leader for targets in Denver with 35 through four games, 13 ahead of second place (now-injured Javonte Williams) and 14 ahead of Jerry Jeudy. Sutton is Russell Wilson's favorite target and the Broncos may have to lean more on the pass moving forward with Williams lost for the year due to a torn ACL. On Thursday, Sutton will take on a Colts secondary that has posted average metrics against opposing wideouts through four games. The Broncos have had an uneven start to the season, but Sutton has been a constant presence in the box score despite a slow team start offensively. Sutton has yet to catch fewer than four balls in a game and is averaging a healthy 14.3 yards per reception. With positive regression expected in the red zone for Denver, Sutton can remain locked into lineups as a strong WR2.
Week 4 at Las Vegas Raiders
Courtland Sutton paced the Broncos in targets yet again in Week 3 with 10, and he turned that workload into a 8-97-0 line against a tough 49ers defense. Sutton is seeing great usage from Russell Wilson with a 28% target share through three weeks and is currently fifth in the league with 291 total receiving yards. Sutton's impressive yardage total is the result of a strong target share combined with 371 air yards (currently second in the NFL). Maintaining his traditional role as a deep threat, Sutton has seen a boost in efficiency this year with Wilson under center despite the overall struggles of the Broncos offense. His success should continue in Week 4 when the Broncos will travel to Las Vegas to take on a soft Raiders defense. Sutton is a weekly fantasy WR2 as we head into Week 4.
Week 3 vs. San Francisco 49ers
At least through the first two games, Courtland Sutton is Russell Wilson's clear favorite target in the passing game with 18 targets compared to Jerry Jeudy's 10. Running back Javonte Williams is actually second on the team with 16 targets in two games. Even as the Broncos struggle to produce much offense as a unit, Sutton has had a strong start to the season with his 7-122 line in Week 2 following up a 4-72 showing against Seattle Week 1. The one missing piece from Sutton's fantasy performance so far is any work in the endzone as the Broncos have been absolutely atrocious in the red zone to start off the year. There are some structural and coaching concerns with the Broncos through two weeks, but Sutton's prominent place in the passing game and early-season bond with Russell Wilson have him entrenched as a solid WR2 who should see some positive regression in the touchdown department soon.
Week 2 vs. Houston Texans
Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy split the receiving workload right down the middle in Week 1 with both players recording four catches on seven targets from Russell Wilson. Sutton managed 72 yards on his four catches, good for over 10 yards per target. That's an efficient line, but unfortunately for Sutton managers Jeudy was on the other end of the long receiving touchdown from Russell Wilson, the lone touchdown the Broncos scored in Week 1. There should be bigger days ahead for Sutton if the WR workload is going to be consumed entirely by him and Jeudy, and Week 2 is a great starting point against a weak Houston secondary that was just burnt by Michael Pittmann for a 9-121-1 line. The Denver offense had a fluky-bad day in Week 1 on the road in Seattle, but Sutton looks poised to bounce back as a WR2 as one of Wilson's top targets moving forward.
Week 1 at Seattle Seahawks
Courtland Sutton is entering a new era of his career with Russell Wilson arriving in Denver to replace the middling-to-terrible passers Sutton has endured in the NFL so far. Sutton can expect a huge step forward in downfield accuracy and realized air yards in 2022, and that should start right away against a soft Seahawks secondary that is listing rookie fifth-round pick Tariq Woolen as a starting CB alongside journeyman veterans. Sutton drafters have every reason to be excited about his prospects of finishing as at least a WR2 this season with Wilson throwing him passes, and the opening matchup gives him ceiling potential in Week 1. The precise target distribution in Denver's passing game will be of great interest following Week 1, but even without seeing the new-look offense Sutton makes sense as an upside WR2 play to kick off the 2022 campaign.
2022 Fantasy Upside
Courtland Sutton has been languishing in Denver's quarterback debacle for four seasons now, one of which was cut very short by a torn ACL in 2020. In his other three seasons, Sutton has managed to average over 57 receptions and 864 receiving per year with a combination of Case Keenum, Joe Flacco, Drew Lock, Brandon Allen, and Teddy Bridgewater throwing the passes. In 2021, Sutton had the second-best average depth of target in the NFL at 15.7. He also finished sixth in deep targets, eighth in air yards, and fifth in unrealized air yards. In other words, the Broncos want Sutton to be a deep threat but have not had the downfield accuracy at QB to maximize his talents. Enter Russell Wilson. Sutton will now be paired with arguably the game's best deep ball passer and the Denver offense should be much more potent with Wilson under center. Sutton drafters can expect a significant jump in realized air yards this year, and he will carry substantial touchdown upside being targeted downfield by Wilson. Sutton will compete with several other players for targets this year, but he is poised for a potential breakout season if he can establish a consistent connection with Wilson downfield.
2022 Fantasy Downside
Having talented teammates is great in real football, but not so great in fantasy. Sutton's primary concern for fantasy is the stiff target competition all Denver pass catchers will deal with. Sutton will have to split targets with Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick, and Albert Okwuegbunam in the passing game, and RB Javonte Williams will command targets from Wilson coming off his promising rookie season. While Sutton will have weekly blow-up potential with Wilson under center, he will likely face some consistency issues when his teammates have big weeks along the way. There aren't many downsides with Denver pass catchers relative to recent seasons now that Wilson is there, but their stockpile of receiving options may end up being one for Sutton.
2022 Bottom Line
Sutton makes for an exciting WR2 pick this year now that he is getting a massive upgrade at quarterback. Sutton is physically talented and has managed to produce with backup-level talent throwing to him, so it stands to reason we have not seen his ceiling yet. Keep in mind the fact that Sutton will face tough competition for targets if his post-Russ ADP climbs too high, but he has the looks of a WR2 this year.
Week 16 at Chargers
If you're still reading this, I appreciate you for a great season and it most likely means you're in the championship, so congrats to you on making it this far.
Courtland Sutton had his most receiving yards since Week 8, the only problem with that stat is that was it was only 33 yards. You shouldn't have Sutton in your lineups in the final week of the season.
Update:
With Jerry Jeudy and Tim Patrick both placed on COVID/IR list, Courtland Sutton is a top 30 WR play against the Los Angeles Chargers.
