AFC Championship vs. Pittsburgh
Chris Hogan was off to a hot start with 95 yards four targets in a 34-16 win against the Texans in the Division Round before he exited the game with a thigh injury. It is tough to get excited about him with a volatile target distribution outside of Edelman in this offense, and it’s also a very poor matchup against the Steelers in regards to WR aFPA.
Divisional Round vs Houston
Chris Hogan is coming off of a disappointing 4-44-0 line on four targets in a 35-14 win against the Dolphins in Week 17. He out-snapped Michael Floyd 64 to 49 in Week 17, but it is tough to get excited about him with a volatile target distribution outside of Edelman in this offense. It is also a very poor matchup against the Texans in regards WR aFPA.
Fantasy Upside
Chris Hogan closely resembles Julian Edelman in skill-set but has a bit more size at 6’1”. His upside would be a Brandon Lafell type season as the Patriot’s Z-receiver.
Fantasy Downside
Hogan recently suffered a shoulder injury in camp though it is not believed to be serious. He has always struggled to stay healthy, last year alone he missed time do to wrist and knee injuries. The level of competition in this offense for targets will but huge and Tom Brady’s suspension limits Hogan’s upside downfield.
2016 Bottom Line
Before his injury he was reportedly “catching everything” in camp so far and is “constantly getting open”. If he can stay healthy a Brandon Lafell type season is not outlandish as he has the size if things go his way to develop into a consistent weapon for Tom Brady.
Week 16: Hogan vs Raiders
Chris Hogan was another wide receiver who was a victim of a poor Buffalo passing game last week. The top three receivers combined for four catches, and even though the Bills won the game, it was not a winning fantasy day for most Buffalo players.
The matchup is decent this week as Oakland is 21st in aFPA to wide receivers, but we expect another conservative game plan on the road so keep Hogan on the bench for Week 16.
Week 15: Hogan vs Packers
Chris Hogan keeps getting more involved with the Bills' passing game each week. He tied his season-high with seven receptions and nine targets last week and is getting almost as many snaps as the No. 2 receiver Robert Woods (65-61). He also reached the end zone for the second straight week.
Hogan has a great matchup against Green Bay, who is 30th in aFPA to wide receivers. But we are still counting on him to reach the end zone to have enough fantasy value to play and that's not enough this week so keep him on the bench for Week 15.
Week 13: Hogan vs Browns
Chris Hogan has been in the mix the last couple weeks, although he has not made a major impact. He will not be a fantasy starter under any circumstances for Week 13, but keep an eye on him if Robert Woods can't go because of a bad ankle.
Week 12: Hogan vs Jets
Chris Hogan has come on as a solid option for Kyle Orton in the passing game and probably can be considered their No. 2 receiver at this point. He still is getting about the same amount of snaps as Robert Woods, but the 13 targets over the past two games are a positive.
He will play the Jets this week in Detroit because of the snow storm. New York is 18th in aFPA so the matchup is neutral. For now, keep Hogan on the bench but keep an eye on this numbers moving forward as he is now at least in the conversation.
Week 8: Hogan vs Jets
Chris Hogan has jumped ahead of Mike Williams on the depth chart and had his first two catches of the season last week. He is on the fantasy radar, but not enough to warrant a waiver wire pick up.
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