Week 2 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Chris Hogan did not look good last week. Now he faces the toughest secondary in the league. Jacksonville was first last year in aFPA to WRs. Plus, the Patriots' implied team total is seven points lower than it generally is with Tom Brady at the helm. Fade Chris Hogan in Week 2, as Brady will likely look to get his RBs involved with Rob Gronkowski in the passing game. Hogan's floor is very low again this week.
Week 1 vs. Houston Texans
Julian Edelman is suspended and the Patriots do not have a reliable No. 2 WR on the depth chart, clearing the way for Chris Hogan and Rob Gronkowski to lead this passing attack in Week 1. At 28.5 points, the Patriots are getting massive respect in Vegas to open the season, as only the Saints have a higher implied team total. Hogan is locked in as a WR2 with upside for Week 1 against a Texans secondary that ranked just 24th in aFPA to WRs last year.
Fantasy Upside
With Julian Edelman suspended four games to start the season, Chris Hogan becomes the definitive WR1 in this offense to start the season. Injuries sidelined Hogan for part of last season, but when he played, he was on pace for almost nine touchdowns.
Fantasy Downside
Once Edelman comes back, Hogan will likely be third in line for targets or worse behind Edelman, Rob Gronkowski and perhaps Patriots RBs some weeks. That makes for a touchdown-dependent situation, in which redraft owners could get frustrated with when to start and sit him.
2018 Bottom Line
Hogan makes for a much better best-ball and standard redraft league play than PPR once Edelman returns from injury. He could help you get off to a good start the first four weeks of the season, but it feels like he'll be a sell-high candidate after that. His sixth-round ADP is pricey, considering we have later WRs ranked higher.
Super Bowl vs. Philadelphia Eagles
What matters in this different one-game format is not so much how many points we project each player for but how much each player costs per point. In FanDuel's half-point PPR format, here's how we value the wide receivers in terms of dollar/FanDuel point: Brandin Cooks>Alshon Jeffery>Nelson Agholor>Danny Amendola>Torrey Smith>Chris Hogan>Mack Hollins>Phillip Dorsett.
As for DraftKings' full PPR scoring, here's how we value the receivers in terms of dollar/DraftKings point: Brandin Cooks>Nelson Agholor>Alshon Jeffery>Danny Amendola>Torrey Smith>Chris Hogan>Mack Hollins>Phillip Dorsett.
AFC Conference Championship vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
There is some mystery to how healthy Tom Brady is going into the conference championship game because of an apparent injury to his right hand. Reports out of New England range from Brady is okay to it will affect him slightly. Plus, the matchup is not a great one against Jacksonville's elite corners; however, the price might be right for Hogan on DraftKings and FanDuel. His role in the red zone is clearly secure, as he went right back to getting in the end zone in his first game back from injury last week.
Divisional Round vs. Tennessee Titans
The Patriots have the highest implied team total as 14-point home favorites in Vegas this week, and that total is a fantasy juicy 31 points. This is also a pass funnel defense as the Titans run defense finished fourth in the NFL. The Titans are just 20th in aFPA to WRs. The return of Chris Hogan is hard to predict though in terms of his production, as he hasn't played a big role since Week 8. His red zone usage was through the roof early in the season, but if you play him this week, just know this is likely a touchdown-or-bust situation.
Week 15 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Despite the loss in Miami last week, the Patriots are still favored in Pittsburgh with the second-highest implied team total in Vegas this week at 28.25 points. Over the past four weeks, the Steelers have also allowed the eighth-most yards to receivers. And during that span, they are tied for the most touchdowns allowed to wideouts (6). Chris Hogan is in a good spot, but his range of outcomes is vast with Rob Gronkowski coming off suspension. He's a FLEX option, but a risky one. You're banking on a touchdown.
Week 14 at Miami Dolphins
The Patriots have the highest implied team total for Week 14 with 29 points, and Chris Hogan is finally back from injury. It just so happens it's a week where Rob Gronkowski is also suspended. The Dolphins are around league average in aFPA to WRs, but Hogan has averaged more than 13 PPR points when he's played this year. That puts him in FLEX consideration for the fantasy playoffs, given the specific situation and how potent this offense is.
Week 12 vs. Miami Dolphins
Chris Hogan did not practice on Thanksgiving yet again and appears to be trending towards another week of being out for the Patriots.
Week 11 vs. Oakland Raiders (game in Mexico City)
Chris Hogan is trending towards not being active again in Week 11. Prepare accordingly. Monitor his status Sunday, and note his late window kickoff time.
