Week 8 vs. Los Angeles Chargers
The matchup is a good one for Chris Hogan, as the Chargers are ranked 20th in our aFPA vs. WR rankings. They are also just 20th overall in PPR points allowed to WRs. Start Hogan with confidence in the second-highest over/under of Week 8 between the Chargers and Patriots. Consider him no less than a WR2 this week, with upside from there, given his high red zone usage (10 red zone targets).
Week 7 vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Patriots have the highest implied total in Vegas this week, possibly foreshadowing a shootout. The Falcons are about league average in our aFPA vs. WR rankings and a respectable 11th in overall PPR points allowed to the position. For those reasons, Hogan is downgraded to a WR2 this week.
Week 6 at New York Jets
Chris Hogan is tied for second in the NFL with 10 red zone targets and 4 red zone touchdowns. That kind of usage makes him the Patriots' No. 1 WR over Brandin Cooks. The Jets are only 28th in aFPA vs. PPR WRs; therefore, fire up Hogan again as a WR2 in Week 6.
Week 5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Against Tampa Bay on Thursday Night, Chris Hogan is a WR2 in PPR with upside. The Bucs are a great matchup too, ranked just 31st in our aFPA vs. PPR WRs. Despite it being a Thursday Night game, the Patriots have the highest implied total in Vegas for Week 5 at 30.75 points. Hogan's nine red zone targets are also second in the NFL behind only Larry Fitzgerald.
Week 4 vs. Carolina Panthers
The Patriots have the highest implied team total of Week 4 in Vegas with 29 points. Chris Hogan is illustrating great chemistry, especially in the end zone with Tom Brady—3 touchdowns in the past two weeks. Hogan is tied for second in the NFL with 6 red zone targets, behind only Larry Fitzgerald's 8. Consider Hogan a WR2 option this week, with another good chance to find the end zone against an exploitable Carolina secondary. Hogan also has the added comfort of having played on over 85% of the snaps every week so far.
Week 3 vs. Houston Texans
The Patriots are double-digit home favorites against the Texans and have the highest Vegas implied team total for the second week in a row at 29 points. Chris Hogan seems to have the chemistry with Tom Brady over Brandin Cooks. Then again, everybody looks good against the Saints, and Hogan was no exception catching 5-of-6 targets for 78 yards and a touchdown. He's dealing with a knee issue and should play. Given the Patriots expected points, Hogan can be considered as a boom-or-bust WR3 this week.
Week 2 at New Orleans Saints
The Patriots have the highest implied total in Vegas for Week 2, despite playing on the road, with an absurd implied total of 31 points. You're going to want to start most Patriots in Week 2. That includes Hogan as a possible FLEX option with Danny Amendola possibly out with an injury. Hogan only caught 1 of his 5 targets in Week 1, but played more than 90% of snaps. That's encouraging and sets up for a bounce back in Week 2.
Week 1 vs. Chiefs
Chris Hogan played 27-of-29 first-team snaps after Julian Edelman went down with a torn ACL in the third preseason game, likely foreshadowing that Hogan will play the lion's share of snaps opposite Brandin Cooks, whether New England deploys 11 (3-WR) or 12 (2-WR) personnel. His target share is still unclear heading into the season. If you have better options at the position then start them over Hogan, unless you want to go touchdown chasing in the Thursday night opener.
Fantasy Upside
Chris Hogan posted 60 yards and/or a touchdown in five games last season, showing he could be a deep threat for the Patriots. He was also top-three in the NFL in yards per reception. After Julian Edelman went down in the 3rd preseason game, he was also the receiver joining Cooks in the majority of 2WR sets. His usage will likely increase.
Fantasy Downside
The Patriots traded for Brandin Cooks in the offseason, which will take starter snaps away from Chris Hogan. Hogan, at best, is the fifth option in the Patriots passing attack behind Rob Gronkowski, Cooks, Julian Edelman, and James White.
2017 Bottom Line
Hogan is not a fantasy factor entering the 2017 season and should not be drafted in redraft leagues.
Super Bowl vs. Atlanta
Chris Hogan stole the show with a 9-180-2 line on 10 targets in a 36-17 win against the Steelers in the AFC Championship Game. In his coming out party, Hogan showed elite ability to separate from coverage. Hogan has a good overall matchup this week in regards to WR aFPA, but a tougher individual matchup as he will run the majority of his routes against Jalen Collins.
