Week 8 at Buffalo Bills
Aaron Rodgers had a solid showing in Week 7 despite only passing for 194 yards by throwing two touchdowns in the loss to Washington. Rodgers' fantasy prospects will rely heavily on his ability and opportunity to throw touchdowns as the Packers are just not even close to putting up passing numbers similar to years past in 2022. Through seven games, Rodgers has 11 touchdowns on the season, but he is only averaging 228 passing yards per game and that combination adds up to QB2 or streamer numbers. For this week, Rodgers is only a QB2 for fantasy purposes as he deals with a brutal matchup against a Buffalo defense that ranks as the second worst opponent for QBs in our schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. If you play in a single-QB league, it would be best to avoid starting Rodgers in Week 8.
Week 7 at Washington Commanders
Aaron Rodgers continued his relatively nondescript 2022 in a Week 6 loss when he passed for 246 yards and a single touchdown. Rodgers has yet to exceed 255 passing yards in a single game this season and has topped out at two passing scores in a given week. He also has yet to rush for a touchdown, which is something he usually does a couple times each year. It is time to adjust expectations for Rodgers in the revamped Packers offense. He is not going to compete for MVP with this lineup of skill players, and his days of explosive passing numbers may be over. Rodgers is still an effective real-life QB, but his production this season is more along the lines of a high-end QB2 in fantasy. He does get a good matchup this week against Washington, making him a borderline starter in most leagues or a solid streaming option if your normal starter is on bye.
Week 6 vs. New York Jets
Outside of a disastrous Week 1, Aaron Rodgers has finished as a fantasy QB2 in every game this season. Green Bay's offensive philosophy has fundamentally shifted in the wake of Davante Adams leaving, and Rodgers has become more of a game manager from a statistical standpoint while Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon each carry big workloads. Rodgers' 168 pass attempts place him 15th in the NFL and his 6.9 yards per attempt is only good for 23rd. Without a sudden uptick in volume or efficiency, Rodgers is not likely to become an every-week starter for fantasy purposes. In Week 6, Rodgers will take on a Jets defense that has actually been surprisingly tough on opposing passers as the Jets rank inside the top ten of our schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing QBs. Rodgers is a strong QB2 as things currently stand in Green Bay.
Week 5 vs. New York Giants (London)
Aaron Rodgers has been hovering near the QB1 borderline ever since a disastrous Week 1 and most of his passing metrics place him near the middle of the pack as a NFL passer in 2022. Rodgers has a 6:3 TD:INT ratio through four games, ranks 18th in pass attempts, 18th in pass yards, and 16th in yards per attempt. Rodgers is only 25th in air yards and the Packers are ranked 30th in offensive pace through four weeks as they try to take the air out the ball and focus on the running game in the wake of the Davante Adams trade. While the Packers have had some real life success with this philosophy, it is tough on Rodgers in fantasy when he no longer has the massive statistical ceiling he did when getting more passing volume. The Giants are not a particularly tough matchup for QBs, but Rodgers can only be viewed as a low-end QB1 or streamer in his current offensive environment.
Week 4 vs. New England Patriots
Aaron Rodgers' fantasy profile has taken a predictable hit in the new-look Green Bay offense as the Packers transition to a much more run-centric offensive philosophy built on the backs of Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon. Rodgers has logged finishes as the weekly QB32, QB17, and QB13 in his three games this season. Given the state of things in Green Bay, Rodgers fits into the streaming tier of fantasy QBs rather than his traditional spot of MVP contender. In Week 4, the Packers host the Patriots and a Bill Belichick defense that has performed right around league-average against opposing passers this year. Rodgers is not a bad starting option this week, but his ceiling is lower than it has been in recent seasons and there are many other QBs out there with a higher weekly ceiling in 2022.
Week 3 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Aaron Rodgers predictably bounced back at home against Bears in Week 2 by posting 234 yards and two touchdowns on only 25 attempts following up his dud in Week 1. The strong performance was good to see and bodes well for Rodgers moving forward, although Week 3 might be another struggle with the Packers traveling to take on the Buccaneers in Tampa Bay. The Bucs tend to shut down opposing rushing attacks which would suggest Rodgers should be set for plenty of volume on Sunday, but the strong defenses on both sides of this game leave it with one of the lowest betting totals on the board this week at 42. In a game pitting Rodgers against fellow all-time great Tom Brady, Vegas expects a low-scoring slugfest that may leave fantasy points hard to come by. With a big matchup downgrade coming off the solid Week 2 performance, Rodgers is a low-end QB1 against Tampa Bay in Week 3.
Week 2 vs. Chicago Bears
Concerns about Aaron Rodgers' diminished supporting cast proved to be valid in Week 1 with the Packers struggling to get anything going offensively against the Vikings, particularly in the passing game. Rodgers appeared to struggle with the departure of Davante Adams, as he finished with a miserable line of 195 scoreless passing yards and an interception on 34 attempts before being pulled for backup Jordan Love late with the game out of reach. The Packers appear to have major issues getting separation downfield, but hopefully the return of Allen Lazard will restore some element of downfield passing to an offense that relied almost entirely on its running backs in Week 1. Rodgers has historically owned the Bears and the Packers return to Lambeau Field in Week 2, suggesting a bounce back could be in store. Rodgers is worth another shot as a QB1 this week, but if the Packers struggle to pass the ball again Sunday night, it will be time to sound the panic alarm on the Green Bay offense for fantasy purposes.
Week 1 @ Minnesota Vikings
The reigning MVP will start off his 2022 campaign on the road in Minnesota against a Vikings defense that got shredded last year and looks to be only slightly better this season. The Vikings finished in the bottom ten of adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs last season (17.7 fantasy PPG). There are more questions surrounding Aaron Rodgers this season than usual given the team's losses in the receiver room, and it will be interesting to see how he distributes targets in the new-look Packers offense. That being said, Rodgers gets a soft matchup to start things off, and even the revamped Green Bay receiving group should be able to find some separation downfield on the Vikings' corners. We will know much more about how the Packers' 2022 offense will work in a week, but Rodgers looks like a lower-end QB1 to start things off here in Week 1.
2022 Fantasy Upside
Aaron Rodgers' resume speaks for itself. The four-time MVP has won the award the last two seasons and continues to defy age as he posts massive numbers in both real and fantasy football. In 2021, Rodgers continued to dominate opposing defenses to the tune of 7.7 yards per attempt (6th in the league), 37 passing touchdowns (4th in the league), and only four interceptions. Rodgers continued to demonstrate exceptional arm talent and on-field chemistry with his receivers, particularly Davante Adams who is now in Las Vegas. Rodgers will also have to handle the loss of Marquez Valdes-Scantling, but his ability to read defenses and pinpoint accuracy will allow for separation no matter who is catching passes on the other end. Rodgers and Matt LaFleur have yet to give us any reason to believe they cannot manufacture a productive offense in Green Bay, and Rodgers still looks to have enough juice left in the tank to post another strong season for the Packers and fantasy managers alike.
2022 Fantasy Downside
Rodgers' downside stems from his age (he will turn 39 during the upcoming season) and the loss of Adams, who has been his clear top target for the past eight seasons. While Rodgers has shown very few signs of slowing down due to age, it's fair to wonder whether that will continue with a depleted supporting cast. Adams and Valdes-Scantling accounted for a whopping 48.2% of Rodgers' targets last season. The Packers will have to make up nearly half their targets in the passing game with some combination of Allen Lazard, Sammy Watkins, and rookie Christian Watson. Aaron Jones, A.J. Dillon, and Robert Tonyan remain, but the skill players at Rodgers' disposal are far from intimidating as an overall unit. Rodgers' absurd arm talent and reading of the game should keep him productive enough to be fantasy relevant as a fringe QB1, but a third consecutive season in the running for MVP appears unlikely.
2022 Bottom Line
Aaron Rodgers' fantasy profile comes with more concerns than usual heading into the 2022 season. While Rodgers' individual play continues to be excellent, he will eventually see some statistical regression due to his age, and the supporting cast concerns that accompany the departure of Adams and Valdes-Scantling could only accelerate that process. While it is likely Rodgers will continue to be productive enough to warrant consideration as a low-end QB1 or streamer, posting another elite fantasy season will be exceedingly difficult.
Week 17 vs. Minnesota Vikings
In his last game against the divisional rival Minnesota Vikings, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers put up 33.5 fantasy points. Rodgers lit up the purple-and-gold for nearly 400 yards and four touchdowns all on fewer than 35 passing attempts, and he figures to be pretty potent once again in Week 17. Minnesota is allowing the ninth-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points (aFPA) to quarterbacks, which should propel the highly efficient Rodgers into elite fantasy status once again.
Our models project the veteran passer as a clear top-five fantasy passer this week in all formats, especially against a Vikings' defense with depth pieces ailing and injured. Rodgers is an elite QB1 this week, per usual.
