T.Y. Hilton

Fantasy Upside

T.Y. Hilton has always been one of my favorite underrated receivers. All he does is churn out 1,000-plus yard seasons year in and year out, despite getting very little recognition as the WR1 he is. He’s had at least 1,000 yards in five of his eight seasons and averages 4.7 receptions, 72.9 yards and 0.38 touchdowns per game over the course of his career. Until injuries cost him six games last year, he’s had at least 100 targets in every season except his rookie year. Hilton should benefit from the addition of quarterback Philip Rivers and if he doesn’t have the same injury issues he had in 2019, he should be a lock for over 100 targets once again. He was on pace for 109 targets last year during the 10 games he played in.

Fantasy Downside

Missing six games last year and two the year before after missing just one throughout his previous six years is concerning for a wide receiver who will turn 31 in November. I wouldn’t say Hilton is injury prone or even in a definite decline, but it’s at least possible he’s past the apex of his career. Hilton has always been undersized at 5-foot-10, 183 lbs and the hits he takes averaging 69 receptions per season might be taking its toll. Hilton has also never scored more than seven touchdowns in a season, so that limits his fantasy upside.

2020 Bottom Line

Hilton’s production in 2020 is likely tied to how much of an improvement Rivers ends up being over the starter from last year, Jacoby Brissett. Rivers is definitely more accomplished, but he looked rough last season and is now 38 years old. Still, even if Rivers is right on par with what Brissett did last year and Hilton produces at the same clip he did during his 10 games of action, he’ll still be good for a solid floor of 72 catches and 802 yards. However, if he’s healthy and Rivers is any kind of an upgrade, Hilton should sniff WR1 territory. We have him ranked as a WR2 in our rankings and he’s available in the late-fifth round, so he’s solid value for fantasy owners looking for some steady veteran production.

Week 16 vs. Carolina Panthers

T.Y. Hilton looked a little more like himself running routes against the Saints last week, despite struggling to produce. He caught just four passes for 25 yards, although he led the team with nine targets. Hilton will need to show he’s back in game shape in order to be trusted in most fantasy leagues, but desperate owners might be optimistic about his chances against the Panthers, who rank 24th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers this season. He’s risky, but he might pay off in deep leagues as a low-end WR3 option.

Week 13 vs. Tennessee Titans

T.Y. Hilton returned to action last week against the Texans and posted very disappointing numbers, catching just three of the six balls thrown his way for a paltry 18 yards. Hilton said he felt some tightening up in his calf and his status this week against the Titans is in question. Even if he’s active, fantasy owners should be wary of using him after last week and perhaps take a wait-and-see approach until he shows he’s back to his normal self. The Titans rank 14th in aFPA to opposing wide receivers and just held D.J. Chark in check last week, so this isn’t exactly a great matchup for him anyway.

Update: With Hilton out, make sure he's out of your lineup.