Sterling Shepard

Fantasy Upside

Sterling Shepard is kind of like vanilla ice cream. Nobody picks it right out of the gate, but people are generally happy with it when it’s plopped down in front of them. Shepard has quietly been very productive – especially in PPR formats – throughout his career. He has a career average of 7.2 targets and 54.1 yards per game. Also, he had eight touchdowns as a rookie when the offense was a bit better and Odell Beckham Jr. was taking all the pressure off him. With Kenny Golladay in town and Saquon Barkley presumably back healthy, it’s possible Shepard finds the end zone a bit more after just 12 touchdowns in his past 49 games.

Fantasy Downside

Shepard is always an injury risk, as he’s missed at least four games in three of the past four seasons. He also suffers from Daniel Jonesitis, which may result in poor performance. There’s also a risk he loses targets based on the additions to the offense, including Golladay, Barkley’s return to health and first-round rookie Kadarius Toney. Toney seems like the biggest concern for Shepard, given both are shifty players who may operate best out of the slot. That being said, Toney might play more of a gadget role with Shepard lining up both in the slot and at the z-spot.

2021 Bottom Line

Shepard is available at the end of drafts with a 16th-round ADP in 12-team leagues as the WR64 off the board. With that price tag, he’s worth gambling on, especially in PPR formats. While he’ll have more competition for targets, he generally produces a decent floor when healthy. If your roster is full of upside guys with risk, Shepard might be a nice WR6 to round out your roster. If your roster is full of stable producers, maybe swing bigger at the end of the draft.

Week 15 vs. Cleveland Browns

Sterling Shepard caught three of five targets last week against the Cardinals for 35 yards. It was a disappointing output in a nice matchup, and the entire Giants offense struggled. Shepard had at least six catches in all but one game before combining for just four over his last two. While’s he’s still averaging 6.8 targets per game, it’s hard to trust him outside of very deep PPR formats with how bad the offense has been. Be wary.

Week 13 at Seattle Seahawks

Sterling Shepard had a modest 64 yards on seven catches last week against the Bengals. He was targeted eight times, and he has at least six catches in six of the seven games he’s been active this year. That gives him a high floor in PPR leagues.

Shepard should produce this week in a fantastic matchup. The Seahawks rank dead last in aFPA to opposing wide receivers. Although the Seattle defense is getting healthier and may improve down the stretch, expect Shepard to rack up his usual targets and to be a solid, low-end WR3 option, particularly in PPR formats.