Patrick Mahomes

Week 4 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Patrick Mahomes started the season with a five-touchdown bang in Week 1, but since then he's been a little quiet. Last week he finished with 262 yards, one touchdown and an interception (along with 26 rush yards). It's not a bad game, but Mahomes' ceiling has set such a wild standard that anything below it seems mediocre. Mahomes will likely have a similar performance this week as he faces a tough Bucs defense. Tampa Bay has allowed the fourth-fewest average fantasy points to quarterbacks this season. Despite the tough matchup, Mahomes should be viewed as a QB1 in Week 4.

Week 2 vs. Los Angeles Chargers

No Tyreek Hill, no problem for Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs QB looked like his usual self in Week 1, finishing with 360 yards and five touchdowns with no turnovers. He faces a good Chargers defense in Week 2, but Los Angeles gave up nearly 300 yards and two touchdowns to Derek Carr last week. Mahomes also had success against the Chargers last season with three touchdowns in each of his outings against them, throwing for 260 yards and 410 yards. Long story short, Mahomes should continue to be viewed as a must-start option at QB in Week 2.

2022 Fantasy Upside
Patrick Mahomes has been dominant since taking over as the Chiefs starting quarterback in 2018. In the four seasons he’s played, Mahomes has finished as QB1, QB8, QB4 and QB4. Since 2018, Mahomes has the most 300-yard passing games (31), 3-TD passing games (28) and 4-TD passing games (13). For reference, Mahomes has started 63 games in that span, so nearly half of his games have been 300-yard performances. And that’s not even adding in his rushing ability. He has the 7th-most rush yards by a quarterback since 2018, including a career-high 381 yards last season. He still has a strong supporting cast heading into 2022 that includes Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman and 2nd-round rookie Skyy Moore. Even the Chiefs' offensive line is among the best in the league with 4for4’s Justin Edwards listing them at No. 2. Mahomes turns 27 in September, which is typically the age when we see quarterbacks at their peak.

2022 Fantasy Downside
The Chiefs lost a big weapon this offseason with WR Tyreek Hill being traded to the Dolphins. In fact, the Chiefs have a lot of change when it comes to Mahomes’ weapons. Our top three projected WRs for Kansas City this season (Smith-Schuster, Valdes Scantling, Moore) are all new additions. So there could be a bit of a learning curve for Mahomes as he gets adjusted to his new teammates. Mahomes’ other top option, Kelce, also regressed a bit last season and will turn 33 this year, which is when we start to see tight ends decline. We also saw Mahomes become a bit more turnover prone in 2021, throwing a career-high 13 interceptions after throwing a combined 11 interceptions in the two seasons prior.

2022 Bottom Line
The loss of Hill will likely make a dent in Mahomes’ overall production, but it’s hard to see the Chiefs quarterback completely fall off this season. He still has a strong supporting cast around him, and he’s arguably the most talented quarterback in the league. We’re projecting fewer passing yards and passing touchdowns for Mahomes this year, but not much. He should still be viewed as a top five option at quarterback, and has the potential to finish as QB1. There’s a lot different with the Chiefs this season, but Mahomes is still an elite option.