Fantasy Upside
Michael Pittman struggled along with the rest of the Colts’ offense last season, finishing with a modest 925 yards and four touchdowns on 99 receptions. He was targeted more and caught more balls than he did in his breakout 2021 year, but his yards per reception plummeted three full yards from 12.3 to 9.3. Pittman should benefit from any improvement at the quarterback position. Matt Ryan was horrible last year - 25th among 31 qualified players in QBR per ESPN. If Gardner Minshew wins the starting job, he should be able to help Pittman get back on track. Pittman profiles as a solid red zone threat as well, if the Colts can consistently get down there and if the new coaching staff decides to throw the ball in those situations. So some positive touchdown regression seems likely.
Fantasy Downside
While we hope Minshew is better than Ryan was last year, there’s no guarantee that he is. Also, if the rookie Anthony Richardson ends up starting early on, it could be a tough season for Pittman once again. Richardson is an electric athlete but needs some work as a passer, which may limit Pittman’s upside.
2023 Bottom Line
Pittman’s risk is baked into his ADP, as he’s one of the few players likely to lead his team in targets and still available as late as round nine of drafts. We have him ranked as a WR3 option, which seems like his floor if Minshew starts, and about right if Richardson is behind center. He seems worth the gamble at his relatively affordable cost right now.
