Fantasy Upside
Welker finished his last six years with the Patriots catching over 100 balls five times. Julian Edelman filled in that role last year, catching 105 balls. His upside this year primarily involves Edelmen reprising the same role and level of usage he saw last year, when he finished as a top 20 WR in both standard and PPR formats.
Fantasy Downside
If the Patriots pass catching corp is healthier this year than last, especially if the younger WRs continue to develop, Edelman may not be as needed as he was last year. His giant reception total came in part as the team attempted to compensate for game days without some of Amendola, Gronkowski, Vereen, and Dobson. While Ede'man has shown he's a reliable option when given the chance, it's within reason that Belichick will limit Edelman's opportunities this year - relative to last year.
Bottom Line
Edelman sees a significant bump in PPR formats, where we bump him to WR19 from WR32. Edelman's value on draft day just depends on where you can land him. Our own 4for4 ADP has him going in the mid 6th, which is a full 1-2 rounds after many players we project similarly. I like that draft day price a lot. I would be nervous about reaching for Edelman, though, as he does come with some risk in my mind of seeing less targets and usage than last year.
