Fantasy Upside
Despite a bevy of positive offseason headlines, Jaylen Warren has only seen his ADP tick up from 90.9 to 88.3 since April. Warren will benefit from Arthur Smith's new run-heavy scheme and from his philosophy of using his running backs out of the backfield on passing downs. Combine that with Russell Wilson's new-found love of check downs and you're looking at a very positive situation for someone coming off the board at RB27. He's also one of the most efficient running backs in the league as he's top 10 in yards per attempt, yards after contact, broken tackle + missed tackle percentage, and is top 15 in first down rate.
Fantasy Downside
However, the downside could come from similar factors. The offensive personnel decisions from Arthur Smith have been quite questionable. There's also the issue of Justin Fields. Should Fields take over, Warren will take a more significant hit than Harris.
2024 Bottom Line
Warren is an analytical darling and now has a scheme that could highlight him even more. It also helps that, for now, the Steelers have a quarterback in Wilson that will check it down and the lack of receiving talent around WR George Pickens to command targets. At RB27, Warren is a strong buy in all formats, with some sites having his ADP even lower.