Cole Kmet

Fantasy Upside
Cole Kmet started to find a rhythm last season after a somewhat disappointing 2021 season. From Week 8 on in 2022, Kmet was the fantasy TE4. From Week 8 through Week 17, Kmet scored seven touchdowns while averaging 3.8 receptions for 40 yards. He also saw at least five targets in seven games during that span, which is notable considering how few passing attempts the Bears had as a team.

Fantasy Downside
While Kmet did show some promise in 2022, he scored five of his seven touchdowns in a three game span. And his final two scores came in the final two games of the season when Darnell Mooney was on IR (and Justin Fields was inactive for one of those games). Kmet didn’t score a single touchdown in 2020, and then didn’t score in the first seven weeks of the 2023 season. He’s also not someone who is prone to having big games as he topped 50 yards just three times last season, and finished below 30 yards nine times.

2023 Bottom Line
Kmet isn’t the most productive player, but tight end is a tough position in fantasy. Only one tight end topped 1,000 receiving yards, and only seven had at least 700 yards. Kmet is facing an uphill battle in a run-heavy offense that just added another receiving threat in D.J. Moore. But if he can become a more reliable option in the red zone like he showed at points last season, then he’ll be very valuable. Right now he’s a solid TE2 option that is available later in the draft.

Week 16 vs. Buffalo Bills

With Darnell Mooney (IR) and Chase Claypool (knee) out, Cole Kmet is the only receiving threat in this offense with any sort of value. He led all Bears players in targets last week (5), finishing with four catches for 25 yards. Kmet has seen some value due to the Bears' lack of receiving threats, but he won't be an ideal play in Week 16. He gets a brutal matchup against a Bills defense that hasn't allowed a receiving touchdown to a tight end all season long. They've also given up the 7th-fewest total receiving yards to the position. Kmet has some limited appeal just because tight ends are awful this year, but he doesn't have a high ceiling in a tough matchup. We'd avoid if you can.

Week 13 vs. Green Bay Packers

Cole Kmet saw a team-high six targets last week from backup QB Trevor Siemian. Although he only finished with three receptions for 27 yards. Kmet had a three-game hot streak there, but he's gone back to being just an average tight end. Kmet still has some appeal as a low-end TE1 this week vs. the Packers (16th aFPA), but mostly because the position is so shallow this season, but we wouldn't expect anything incredible. It's also worth noting Kmet finished with a goose egg the last time he faced the Packers.