Week 1 at Kansas City Chiefs
Baker Mayfield looks poised for a career year with continuity throughout this Browns offense. He’ll get top wideout Odell Beckham Jr. back from injury. The Browns also have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL. While they’re six-point underdogs against the Chiefs, they do have an implied total of 24 points, so this still looks like a good spot for Mayfield. The Browns should still remain among the most run-heavy teams in the NFL, but this is a game where we could see an uptick in passing volume as they try to keep pace with this high-octane Chiefs offense.
The Chiefs ranked 19th in aFPA allowed last season, so we could see an efficient game out of Mayfield. The risk is that the Browns come in with a run-heavy gameplan and are successful in playing at a slow pace, keeping Patrick Mahomes and company off the field. This would potentially result in low volume, which would be bad news for Mayfield’s outlook. Having said that, a shootout looks like the more likely scenario, putting Mayfield on the streaming radar as an upside QB2.