Andrew Luck
  • Andrew Luck

  • QB
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  • 35
  • 240 lbs
  • 6' 4"
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Scouting report

by Steve Andress

IND QB Andrew Luck - Week 4 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 4 vs. Houston Texans

The Colts have a slightly above average implied team total of 24.25 points, but that number has come down throughout the week with sharp action in Vegas on the Texans, despite the majority of bets being laid on the Colts. The sharps certainly feel there will be some negative game script for Luck in this game. For fantasy production, you'll need to hope for volume, though, as his efficiency has been pitiful on a yards-per-attempt basis. The Texans can be had if the Colts can protect Luck, as Houston is ranked just 29th in aFPA to QBs this season. Other names are safer options in Week 4 in start-one quarterback leagues.

by Steve Andress

IND QB Andrew Luck - Week 3 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 3 at Philadelphia Eagles

Andrew Luck has thrown 84 passes in his first two weeks back from injury. Based on his career average of 7.16 yards per attempt, that should have led to more than 600 passing yards. Instead, he only had 179 last week, a result of the worst average depth of target of his career and one that is near the bottom of the league. It's clear the Colts want to get the ball out of his hands quickly, with concerns at both tackle positions the first two weeks of the season. The Eagles only allowed 8.8 fantasy points to Matt Ryan Week 1, but 30 to Ryan Fitzpatrick last week. Indy has a poor 20.5 implied team total as well. Based on the matchup and Luck's conservative play, there are at least 12 better quarterback options in Week 3.

by Steve Andress

IND QB Andrew Luck - Week 2 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 2 at Washington Redskins

Andrew Luck threw the ball more than 50 times in his first game back after missing all of last season. That's a product of a poor Colts defense and below-average rushing attack. This team will have to rely on Luck's arm and volume leads to fantasy production. This game has the third-highest total in Vegas for Week 2, but Washington was top-10 in aFPA last year to QBs and just made the Cardinals offense look miserable, holding Sam Bradford to 2.8 fantasy points. Luck is a risky play in standard leagues. There's probably a better matchup to exploit.

by Steve Andress

IND QB Andrew Luck - Week 1 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 1 vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Andrew Luck makes his long-awaited return in a juicy fantasy matchup, as the Bengals were just 24th in aFPA to QBs last season. Vegas has set the over/under in this game at 48, the fifth-highest total of opening weekend. With the Colts defense expected to again be one of the weakest units in the league, a high-volume output is expected for Luck. He's a top-10 QB option for Week 1.

by Steve Andress

IND QB Andrew Luck - 2018 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside

It's been a while since we've seen Andrew Luck healthy and at his best; therefore, it's easy to forget just how good he was. In his last three healthy seasons, Luck finished fourth, second, and fourth among fantasy quarterbacks. Few quarterbacks have his upside in fantasy football.

Fantasy Downside

The downside for Luck is obvious. He missed all of last season with a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder and missed nine games in 2015 with chest and kidney injuries. If he suffers another setback in that throwing shoulder, there's no telling if the Colts will play him or sit him again.

2018 Bottom Line

Luck is the ultimate risk/reward pick among fantasy quarterbacks in 2018. His ceiling is a top-five quarterback, but the risk is disaster level. However, his ADP has the risk baked in this season, unlike previous years where it may have cost you a fifth-round pick to draft Luck. He is the 12th QB off the board with an ADP in the ninth round. That's reasonable.

by Steve Andress

IND QB Andrew Luck - 2017 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside

Andrew Luck has finished as a top-five fantasy quarterback in each of the last three seasons. Luck's ten weeks as a top-10 quarterback last season were the third-most behind only Aaron Rodgers and Matt Ryan.

Fantasy Downside

Luck had offseason surgery on a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder, and there is ambiguity on whether he will be available at the start of the season, after spending all of training camp on the PUP list. During the Colts' first preseason game broadcast, GM Chris Ballard said Luck's shoulder strength is already higher than at any point last season. However, after the game, owner Jim Irsay could not say unequivocally Luck would be ready for the season opener against the Rams.

2017 Bottom Line

It has become abundantly clear the Colts are taking a long-term approach to Luck's rehab and absolutely will not rush him back. However, there doesn't seem to be any concern that he'd miss more than a game or two at the start of the season. His ADP had been in the fourth/fifth round area before doubt was cast on his availability to start the season. If his ADP drops into the sixth or later, it might be worth pulling the trigger if you don't mind drafting a QB early since it is an easy position to replace if Luck does miss a game or two.

by Steve Andress

IND QB Andrew Luck - Week 17, 2016 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 17 at Jacksonville
The Colts have all said they are playing to win in Week 17, even if it is a meaningless game, as they are already eliminated from playoff contention. That makes Luck a top-5 QB option once again in Week 17. Luck has 11 total touchdowns to four interceptions in his last four games, making him a solid option against the Jaguars on the road.

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