Aaron Rodgers Fantasy Football Week 0 Scouting Report

Aaron Rodgers
QB
, New York Jets

Age: 41
Weight: 225 lbs
Height: 6' 2"

ADP: 117
Depth Chart Ranking: 1

Pts	PaYds	PaTD	Int	RuYds
0	0	0	0	0

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Scouting report

by Joe Redemann

· Oct 15, 2021 · 12:16 PM EDT

GB QB Aaron Rodgers - Week 6 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 6 at Bears
The Green Bay Packers' quarterback will someday surely enter the Hall of Fame, but at this point in his fantasy career, he's more in the Hall of Consistently Pretty Good. Aaron Rodgers capped off another performance in Week 5 with a more than 69% completion rate, over 300 passing yards, and multiple passing touchdowns – and, yet, he still ranked just QB13 in scoring on the week. You're rostering the King of the Discount Double Check at this point because of his high floor, not his illustrious ceiling.

Week 6 sees the Packers head to the Windy City to take on the Chicago Bears, a defense allowing just the sixth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. The Bears get about an average pressure rate on the quarterback, but Rodgers is one of the least-pressured passers in the league, so the question is more if the precise Rodgers can fit a pass in against a secondary allowing a below-average passer rating. Our models like Rodgers as fantasy's QB10 in Week 6, a low-end starter due to tough contexts.

by Joe Redemann

· Oct 08, 2021 · 3:19 PM EDT

GB QB Aaron Rodgers - Week 5 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 5 at Cincinnati Bengals

Aaron Rodgers remains one of the NFL's most stable fantasy quarterbacks, outside of the Week 1 stinker the Green Bay Packers posted across the board. After three weeks of 19.0 fantasy points or more, Rodgers should be considered a low-end QB1 with upside. He won't run like he used to, and – more often than not – these days precision takes precedence over prolificness in his profile. That said, he still has the potential to put up top-tier numbers in any given week.

Things line up that way for Rodgers in Week 5, as the Pack head to face the Cincinnati Bengals. Cincy is allowing the seventh-most schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks and the 13th-most to opposing receivers. With a 50.5-point total and two bad defenses in play, this contest has sneaky shootout potential. Start Rodgers with confidence here; he comes in as our QB10 by our projection models.

by Joe Redemann

· Oct 01, 2021 · 10:43 AM EDT

GB QB Aaron Rodgers - Week 4 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 4 vs. Steelers
Despite a solid performance as an NFL quarterback against a tough defense in Week 3, Aaron Rodgers was just the QB15 in fantasy football. His 19.0 points (261 passing yards, two touchdowns) were about the expectation for last week, but there's little upside for a passer attempting under 30 throws and just over one rush per game.

Week 4 sees Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers host the Pittsburgh Steelers, who currently rank just outside the top-10 toughest units in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks. Two of the Steelers' top edge rushers are banged up, which could allow Rodgers to sustain his high floor in this game. Still, the Packers are 7.5-point Vegas favorites here and there's little reason to expect Rodgers will rise above our models' Week 4 QB11 projection.

by Joe Redemann

· Sep 24, 2021 · 10:17 PM EDT

GB QB Aaron Rodgers - Week 3 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 3 at 49ers
The reigning MVP bounced back from a horrendous Week 1 start by annihilating the hapless Detroit Lions in Week 2. Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers remains extremely efficient; through two games, he has a 67.3% completion rate and 7.3% touchdown rate.

The only problem for his fantasy profile going forward is that his passing volume is way down. Over the last four years, Rodgers has averaged a 17-game pace of 596 pass attempts; this season, he's on pace for just 468. In addition, he offers little to no rushing upside at this point, currently pacing for 34 attempts for 51 yards while he had previously given fantasy managers a 17-game average of 47 attempts for 224 yards and a few scores.

Week 3 also sees a hugely troublesome matchup for Rodgers, as they go to visit the San Francisco 49ers. The Niners allow the fourth-fewest schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this year, and fill-in left tackle Elgton Jenkins has been downgraded to "doubtful" for this contest. There's upside for Rodgers of course, but there's also a reason our models project him as just the QB11 for fantasy this week. If you have a better option available, it's worth considering benching A-Rod for Week 3.

by Joe Redemann

· Sep 17, 2021 · 12:03 PM EDT

GB QB Aaron Rodgers - Week 2 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 2 vs. Lions

It's the first rivalry week for the Green Bay Packers in 2021, and it couldn't come at a better time for quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Week 1 saw the reigning MVP get rocked and post just 1.3 fantasy points. The Packers' offensive line held up, in spite of the absence of All-Pro left tackle David Bakhtiari, allowing just the 18th-most pressures for Week 1 quarterbacks. The Packers simply got too far behind too early and never were able to catch up.

Week 2, however, features a much more forgiving opponent in the bottom-of-the-barrel Detroit Lions. Detroit so far has given up a league-average amount of fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks. Our matchups tool has them as the easiest fantasy matchup for the position this week, however, which lines up with a 30-point implied total. That puts Rodgers in line for the eighth-best fantasy value for Week 2, as we project him for 289.1 passing yards, 2.4 touchdowns, and 0.4 interceptions on 36.3 attempts, adding 3.2 rushes for 12.0 yards and 0.2 scores on the ground.

by Joe Redemann

· Sep 10, 2021 · 11:22 AM EDT

GB QB Aaron Rodgers - Week 1 Fantasy Football Outlook

Week 1 at New Orleans
After an offseason of drama, it will be interesting to see if Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers misses a beat with his team coming into Week 1. A trip to visit the New Orleans Saints should be no cakewalk for a mere mortal – they project as the fifth-hardest fantasy quarterback matchup – but Rodgers is no mere mortal on a football field. Our models project Rodgers as the fifth-best fantasy passer in 2021's inaugural slate, with 283.9 passing yards, 2.2 passing touchdowns, and 0.3 interceptions. In addition, having to play at a neutral site in Jacksonville may allow Green Bay and Rodgers to avoid some of the environmental disadvantages of playing on the road.

by Joe Redemann

· Jul 25, 2021 · 5:48 PM EDT

GB QB Aaron Rodgers - 2021 Fantasy Football Outlook

Fantasy Upside
Despite turning 37 during the 2020 season, Aaron Rodgers staved off the grasping hands of the NFL career Grim Reaper to win his third MVP award. He compiled 24.2 points per game on the way to finishing the season as the QB3 in fantasy football. Rodgers set career-highs in touchdown passes (48) and completion rate (70.7%) without sacrificing passing efficiency (8.2 yards per attempt) or becoming reckless (5 interceptions). The Packers’ offensive line also allowed Rodgers to be sacked just 20 times – the fewest total of his career.

Fantasy Downside
Prior to his 2020 tour of destruction, Rodgers had seen his passing totals and many of his peripherals slip steadily downward since his age-33 2016 season. His 9.1% passing touchdown and 1.0% interception rates will almost certainly regress to the average (career 6.3% touchdown and 1.4% interception rates) in 2021 since the only help the Packers’ paper-thin receiving corps added this offseason was third-round slot man Amari Rodgers. While still mobile in the pocket, Rodgers is no longer a dynamic rusher; instead, he’s more likely to scramble 25 to 30 times a year for about 150 yards.

Bottom Line
If he plays, Aaron Rodgers will likely remain one of fantasy football’s most effective quarterbacks and a solid QB1, despite his advancing age. Our models project the disgruntled All-Pro to finish as the QB10 in 2021, but an ADP in the late sixth to middle seventh rounds as the QB8 is a bit rich for my tastes. I’d rather wait another round for Jalen Hurts, another two for Ryan Tannehill, or stream the position than pass up on the skill position players available in the middle rounds.