NFL DFS Floor & Ceiling Projections
Floor and Ceiling projections tell you exactly what range of outcomes to expect for every player, every week.
4for4's award-winning projections have been run through a proprietary algorithm created by Chris Raybon that accounts for the volatility of each individual fantasy statistic for each position and 4for4's historical forecast accuracy to give you a better idea of the best- and worst-case scenarios for each player.
- Floor = 85% probability that a player will score at least this amount of points. Floor projections are useful in cash games when you want to maximize your lineup's Floor.
- Ceiling = 15% probability that a player will score at least this amount of points. Ceiling projections are useful in tournaments when you want to maximize your lineup's upside.
Our Floor and Ceiling projections now account not only for player historical player volatility, but also our own forecast accuracy. In doing so, we are able to provide DFS subscribers with Floor and Ceiling projections much more representative of a player's true range of outcomes and the risk/reward inherent in each of our projections.
So while most Floor/Ceiling projection models simply add/subtract some percentage of a player's median projection to arrive at this Ceiling/Floor, we ask ourselves, for example, "what has historically been a player's range of outcomes when we've projected him for this amount of catches, yards, TDs, etc.?"
For example, in Week 2 of 2017, we had RB Kareem Hunt projected for 19.3 DraftKings points and Ben Roethlisberger projected for 19.2 DraftKings points, yet Roethlisberger's Floor projection was 9.7 while Hunt's was 6.8. Why? We've found that when a QB fails to hit his forecast in stats like passing yards, passing TDs, etc., his actual totals are still closer to what we projected than when a RB fails to hit his forecast in stats like rushing TDs, receiving yards, etc.
Our Floor and Ceiling projections are included in our Lineup Generator, where you can optimize your lineups based on either of them just like with normal projections. Floor and Ceiling projections can also be sorted by Floor Value or Ceiling Value, just as median projections can.