Week 16 vs. New England Patriots
Russell Wilson salvaged a rough game (from a fantasy perspective) by scoring a rushing touchdown in Week 15 against the Lions. Otherwise, Wilson threw for 223 yards and one passing touchdown on 32 pass attempts. Wilson hasn't thrown for more than two touchdowns in a game since Week 8 and hasn't broken 300 yards passing since way back in Week 3. Wilson's ceiling is limited in his current game manager role for Sean Payton, but he gets a home matchup this week against a New England defense that is firmly mediocre against opposing passers for fantasy purposes. Wilson's range of outcomes has narrowed significantly since his prime years and essentially spans the range from middling QB2 to potential QB1 streamer in good matchups. He makes for a solid QB2 as we head into Week 16.
Week 15 @ Detroit Lions
Russell Wilson's Week 14 line fits right in with his other recent performances. On 33 pass attempts, Wilson posted 224 yards with two touchdowns and an interception on his way to finishing as the weekly QB18. Wilson has solidified himself in the tier of middling QB2s who can produce in quality matchups but suffer from issues with either volume or efficiency on a weekly basis. Luckily for Wilson and the Broncos, the Detroit defense is in shambles and has been getting gashed in recent weeks, particularly through the air. The Lions now rank as the second-best matchup in the entire league for opposing fantasy passers according to schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed. The Broncos will surely try to establish the run this weekend, but they also have a good chance at some big plays against a weak secondary and that puts Wilson amongst the better QB2 starts for Week 15.
Week 14 at Los Angeles Chargers
Russell Wilson salvaged his Week 13 fantasy performance with another rushing touchdown, but he was rough as a passer with only 186 yards and a touchdown countered by three interceptions on the day. Wilson only attempted 26 passes against the Texans and has now failed to reach 30 attempts in seven of his last nine games. Wilson is simply not efficient enough to thrive on such limited volume at this point in his career. Luckily, Wilson and the Broncos get a great matchup in Week 14 against the Chargers' exceedingly poor secondary. Wilson is viable as a QB2 given the soft matchup, but he is not attempting enough passes to garner real consideration as a possible QB1 starter in most leagues.
Week 13 at Houston Texans
Wilson finished as the QB12 in fantasy for Week 12, largely due to the fact that he scored a rushing touchdown in addition to a passing one. He still only managed 134 yards on just 22 pass attempts. Wilson has actually been playing fairly well of late, but the Broncos have gone into full ground-and-pound mode with Javonte Williams resulting in Wilson finishing below 30 pass attempts in five of the last six weeks. Without much volume, Wilson will have to be highly efficient just to turn in low-end QB1 numbers. He will have a shot to do just that this week, as the Broncos travel to Houston to take on the Texans' poor pass defense. Houston currently ranks as the second-best matchup in the league for opposing passers according to schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed. Wilson slots in as a borderline QB1 in our rankings this week.
Week 12 vs. Cleveland Browns
Russell Wilson had a nice day from a real-life football perspective in Week 11, but he only found the end zone once which made his fantasy day disappointing. Wilson's 7.0 yards per attempt on the season only ranks 18th amongst QBs, and his 297 total pass attempts slots in at a lowly 23rd in the NFL. Wilson has hovered in the QB2 range the majority of this season, but he could have issues reaching even that level of production against an elite Cleveland defense in Week 12. With the Browns ranking in the top-three of worst fantasy matchups for opposing QBs, managers should not expect anything more than middling QB2 production from Wilson this week.
Week 11 vs. Minnesota Vikings
Don't look now but Russell Wilson is playing decently well in his second season in Denver, and he's coming off perhaps his most efficient outing yet in Week 10 when he completed 82% of his passes for 193 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. Even with that efficiency, Wilson couldn't crack 20 fantasy points due to volume limitations with the Broncos feeding defenses a steady diet of Javonte Williams runs lately. Wilson is up to 18 passing touchdowns on the season as he continues to show great red zone chemistry with Courtland Sutton. Wilson has been performing like a solid QB2 most of the season, and that's where he should rank again in Week 11 taking on a mediocre Vikings pass defense.
Week 10 @ Buffalo Bills
Russell Wilson comes off a Week 9 bye to face the Bills on the road in Buffalo. The Bills have been middle-of-the-pack in terms of allowing fantasy production to opposing passers so far in 2023. Wilson has had a couple of nice fantasy games this season, but overall he has been hovering in the mediocre QB2 range and ranks 16th amongst QBs in fantasy points per game. Wilson is no longer efficient enough to warrant weekly QB1 consideration, but a decent performance against an injury-ravaged defense is within his range of outcomes this week. Wilson is a workable fantasy starter if you're stuck dealing with bye weeks or an injury at QB.
Week 8 vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Russell Wilson game managed his way to a Broncos win in Week 7 by throwing for 194 yards and a touchdown on 29 pass attempts against the Packers. Wilson's 17.3 fantasy points per game rank 14th amongst QBs, but that number is largely buoyed by two strong performances in Weeks 2 and 4. He still only ranks 20th at the position with 7.0 yards per attempt and is currently slotted at 16th in the NFL with 1,499 passing yards. Now he gets the displeasure of taking on a Chiefs defense that has smothered opposing QB production this season, with only the Ravens allowing fewer schedule-adjusted fantasy points to opposing passers. The matchup does not set up well for Wilson this week, which makes his already shaky fantasy profile a non-starter in Week 8.
Week 7 vs. Green Bay Packers
Russell Wilson's dreadful Week 6 performance was reminiscent of last season when he looked like a shell of his former self. Wilson struggled against the Kansas City defense to the tune of just 95 passing yards accompanied by two interceptions and a single passing touchdown. Through six weeks, Wilson only has two weekly finishes as a QB1 for fantasy and the Broncos could be looking at a full blown teardown and rebuild following this season given the lack of improvement under Sean Payton. Wilson gets an average matchup this week taking on the Packers, but he simply cannot be trusted as a regular fantasy starter outside of formats where you have to start multiple QBs.
Week 6 at Kansas City Chiefs
Russell Wilson threw for 196 yards and two touchdowns last week against a tough Jets defense, but he did lose a fumble that was returned for a touchdown to seal the game and the Broncos lost 31-21. While Wilson has generally improved upon last year's disaster, the Broncos remain a bad team who are now 1-4 and there appears to be some tension boiling over between Wilson and new Head Coach Sean Payton. Now the Broncos travel to Kansas City to take on the Chiefs, who boast a defense that has suppressed opposing quarterback production this year (fifth-best in adjusted fantasy points allowed to QBs). Wilson's improvement with Payton in town (10th in yards per attempt) has him firmly back on the QB2 radar, but he is a tough sell as a single-QB starter this week even with the Broncos projected to be playing catch-up as 10 point underdogs.
