Week 2 @ Seattle Seahawks
Derrick Henry's season opener was doomed from the start as Tennessee quickly fell behind the Cardinals on the scoreboard and the Titans' offensive line looked completely overwhelmed by the Arizona defense. Henry still got 17 carries but only produced an inefficient 58 rushing yards to go along with three receptions on four targets for an additional 17 yards. The four targets are actually an encouraging sign for Henry's fantasy prospects, although it could end up being misleading given the extreme negative game script Tennessee faced all day. In Week 2, Henry and the Titans will travel to Seattle to face off with a Seahawks defense that showed a solid pass rush in their season opener but also showed some vulnerability to the ground game by giving up 113 rushing yards to Jonathan Taylor and the Colts. Week 1 was troubling enough to give cause for concern for rostering Henry in a projected shootout in DFS formats, but you still have to start him as an RB1 in any season-long format.
Week 1 vs. Arizona Cardinals
Derrick Henry will start off 2021 trying to complete a three-peat of rushing titles in terms of both yards and touchdowns. Henry sees virtually unheard-of rushing volume in today's NFL, and while his ceiling is always capped due to his lack of a consistent passing game role, he can be an absolute freight train in both fantasy and real football when the Titans catch a positive game script. That's a real possibility on Sunday when the Titans host the Cardinals, a team whose defense projects to struggle this season. The betting total for Henry's Week 1 matchup is hovering around 52 points with the Titans favored by a field goal, suggesting he should have no problem seeing his usual robust usage. A projected shootout where the Titans are favored? You know what that means. Fire Henry up as a no-brainer RB1 this Sunday.
2021 Fantasy Upside
Fresh off defending his 2019 rushing title and also leading the NFL in rushing touchdowns for the second consecutive season, Derrick Henry projects to finish among the league leaders in carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns again in 2021. In 2020, Henry parlayed an absurd 378 carries into an astounding 2,027 rushing yards, becoming the first running back to break the 2,000-yard barrier since Adrian Peterson in 2012. Henry's 17 rushing touchdowns resulted from a combination of big-play ability and receiving an elite share (71%) of the team's carries inside the five-yard line. Nothing in the Titans' offseason moves suggests a departure from their steadfast commitment to Henry as a foundational piece of the offense in a workhorse role. Henry's virtually peerless rushing volume solidifies his status as a surefire RB1 in fantasy.
2021 Fantasy Downside
Henry's fantasy ceiling is capped due to limitations in the passing game. Henry only managed 19 receptions in 16 games during the 2020 season and the Titans continued to delegate obvious passing downs to backups Darrynton Evans and Jeremy McNichols. Henry has also surely benefited from Tennessee's extreme offensive efficiency in recent seasons, something that will be subject to likely regression in 2021. While Henry remains one of the best volume bets in all of fantasy football, repeating his gaudy stats from last season remains highly unlikely.
2021 Bottom Line
Despite a limited role in the passing game, Henry remains an elite RB1 for fantasy purposes due to his monstrous rushing workload and the high likelihood he reaches double-digit rushing scores again in 2021. Henry is a first-round fantasy pick in all formats and a truly elite option in non-PPR leagues.
Week 17 at Houston Texans
Even though Tennessee was blown out by the Packers last Sunday night, Derrick Henry rumbled for 98 yards on 23 carries. He looks to win a second straight rushing title and should have another solid outing, as he plowed through the Texans defense for over 200 yards and two TDs in October.
Week 16 at Green Bay Packers
In the win over Detroit last week, Derrick Henry ran for 147 yards and another TD, his 15th of the season. He continues to lead the league in rushing yards and has an outside shot at reaching 2,000 yards. Even though the Packers have been stingy against the run Henry is always a must-start.
Week 15 vs. Detroit Lions
In the win over the Jaguars last week, it was just another day at the office for Derrick Henry, as he busted through the Jacksonville defense for 215 yards and two scores. It was the eighth time this season he was over the century mark and the second time he’d eclipsed 200 yards on the ground. Henry should have another strong performance versus Detroit’s fourth-worst run defense.
Week 14 at Jacksonville Jaguars
With Tennessee falling well behind the Browns last week, Derrick Henry rushed for only 60 yards and lost a fumble. It was his fewest yards on the ground since Week 4 and just the fifth time in ’20 he didn’t find pay dirt. Jacksonville did a decent job of containing Henry in the first meeting this season, as he carried 25 times for 84 yards and no TDs.
Week 13 vs. Cleveland Browns
All Derrick Henry did last week against a good Colts defense was rush for 178 yards and three TDs on 27 carries. It was his first three-score outing since the ’19 regular-season finale and he’s rushed for over 100 yards in four of the past five games this season. Not that it should matter in your decision to start Henry, but Cleveland is ninth-best at stopping the run.
Week 12 at Indianapolis Colts
There’s no question Derrick Henry is one of the top RBs in the game right now. At Baltimore last week he ran for 133 yards, capping the day off with a game-winning 29-yard scamper in overtime. Henry has been over 100 yards six times this season, including in the Week 10 loss to Indy when he dashed for 103 yards. Even against a stout Colts defense, he’s always a top play.
Week 11 at Baltimore Ravens
In the loss to Indy last Thursday, Derrick Henry carried 19 times for 103 yards – the fifth time this season he’s eclipsed the century mark. He’s failed to reach the end zone in two straight, as it was TE Jonnu Smith who scored the Titans rushing TD on an end-around. Henry is always a must-start but will be facing the Ravens No. 11 run defense on Sunday.
