Week 3 @ Dallas Cowboys
Derrick Henry has the talent to overcome some of the small red flags presented to him in his new home. Henry produced top-10 numbers in a ton of key metrics last season in a far worse situation. Even if the veteran bulldozer has lost a step, he still has incredible fantasy upside as a goal-line back, as he has proven with his two scores from within the 5-yard line in as many weeks. Keep starting him everywhere you've got him.
Week 2 vs. Las Vegas Raiders
Derrick Henry has the talent to overcome some of the small red flags presented to him in his new home. Henry produced top-10 numbers in a ton of key metrics last season in a far worse situation. Even if the veteran bulldozer has lost a step, he still has incredible fantasy upside as a goal-line back, as he proved with his five-yard plunge in Week 1. Keep starting him everywhere you've got him.
Week 1 at Kansas City Chiefs
Derrick Henry has the talent to overcome some of the small red flags presented to him in his new home. Henry produced top-10 numbers in a ton of key metrics last season in a far worse situation. Even if the veteran bulldozer has lost a step, he still has incredible fantasy upside as a goal-line back, and the typical Ravens' RB rotation is likely to be more substantial this year, particularly if Keaton Mitchell misses a lot of time.
He needs to be started everywhere this week against a Chiefs defense that ranked 26th in aFPA to the position last season.
Fantasy Upside
The Ravens signed Derrick Henry to a two-year, $16M contract this offseason after purportedly attempting to trade for him last fall. In the process, the team let Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins walk in free agency. Henry finds himself behind a much better offensive line than he's been used to in the last few seasons and an even better all-around offensive environment. With the team pulling back the reigns on Lamar Jackson's goal-line rushing, Henry has a non-zero chance at leading the league in rushing touchdowns.
Fantasy Downside
There is likely to be some sort of rotation in Baltimore, but it's uncertain exactly what it will look like. Justice Hill has become a rotational staple, Keaton Mitchell looked incredible when he was on the field last season, and, of course, Lamar Jackson is liable to take plenty of designed runs himself. Because of Jackson's wheels, he has never been prone to checking the ball down at a high rate, and outside of screen passes, Henry isn't known for his receiving work in the first place. We could have some low-floor performances for the 30-year-old RB.
2024 Bottom Line
Derrick Henry has the talent to overcome some of the small red flags presented to him in his new home. Henry produced top-10 numbers in a ton of key metrics last season in a far worse situation. Even if the veteran bulldozer has lost a step, he still has incredible fantasy upside as a goal-line back, and the typical Ravens' RB rotation is likely to be more substantial this year, particularly if Keaton Mitchell misses a lot of time. Henry is once again a locked-in RB1 with upside for 25-point weeks.
Week 17 at Houston Texans
Derrick Henry racked up 99 yards and a touchdown on the ground against the Seahawks in Week 16 on a workload of 19 carries. In terms of strict rushing upside, Henry is still amongst the better options in fantasy but that renders him dependent on the Titans overall performance to reach his ceiling because he still has limited passing game involvement. Henry has seen more than two targets in just one of his last seven games. Now he gets to face the Texans, who are not the same doormat rushing defense they have historically been but are also nothing particularly special when it comes to limiting opposing backs. Henry is still a great volume bet and projects as a borderline RB1 for fantasy championships.
Week 16 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Derrick Henry is coming off a miserable Week 15 performance when he managed only 10 total yards on 16 carries and four receptions. Those numbers rank amongst the worst individual games Henry has ever had in the NFL. It's fair to say it's highly unlikely we see another game with such stunning inefficiency from Henry this year, and he has a great spot to bounce back in Week 16 against a mediocre-at-best Seattle defense. Henry getting 20 opportunities on a day when he could not find any room to run ensures he will continue to see bellcow-level usage whenever game script allows it, and game script projects to be neutral this week with the Titans being small underdogs at home. Henry may seem tough to trust after the brutal showing last week, but he remains a solid RB2 with weekly RB1 upside due to his robust usage in the offense.
Week 15 vs. Houston Texans
Despite the Titans entering Week 14 as two-touchdown underdogs to the Dolphins, Henry managed to stay involved with the game being close and logged another 22 carries and 120 total yards to go along with a pair of rushing touchdowns. Henry has had a volatile age-29 season as he currently ranks 12th amongst RBs with 14.7 fantasy points per game, but as we all know his production is highly correlated with game script and he remains a solid RB1 in any game where the Titans lead or can keep the score close. The Texans' run defense is not the same doormat that it has been in recent years, but they have only improved to mediocre this season meaning Henry should have a great shot at returning RB1 numbers as we head into the fantasy playoffs.
Week 14 at Miami Dolphins
The Titans' backfield situation is well known at this point. Derrick Henry will still receive massive volume in any game where Tennessee has a positive or neutral game script, as evidenced by his 22 carries in Week 13 against the Colts (and that's with Henry missing snaps due to a concussion check). Tyjae Spears mixes in but is primarily a pass-catching specialist in games where the Titans are trailing. That poses a problem for Henry this week with the Titans traveling to Miami to face the Dolphins' high-powered offense. Henry is still a good bet for a touchdown should Tennessee get in close, but he faces a real risk of being game scripted out of the offense should the Titans fall behind quickly. Henry is a volatile RB2 for Week 14.
Week 13 vs. Indianapolis Colts
With game script predictably swinging back in his favor in Week 12, Derrick Henry trampled the lowly Panthers for 76 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries. Henry has had some volatile production this year, but it is highly correlated to game script and the Titans' team performance. The Titans are small underdogs against the Colts this week, but Indy is atrocious in limiting production by opposing backs as they rank as the third-best matchup in the NFL according to our schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. With the game projected to be close and the matchup indicating the Titans should be able to run the ball with success, Henry finds himself back in the RB1 ranks for Week 13.
Week 12 vs. Carolina Panthers
Derrick Henry's volatile season continued in Week 11 when he busted to the tune of 44 scoreless yards on only 10 carries and two targets. Henry's level of involvement in the Tennessee offense is heavily reliant on game script, as Tyjae Spears typically absorbs a good portion of the receiving work. Henry does get a prime matchup this week when the Titans host the lowly Carolina Panthers and their poor run defense. Henry projects for solid efficiency this week, and game script shouldn't be an issue with as bad as the Panthers are playing right now. Henry should be locked into lineups as a high-upside RB2 this week.
