Week 17 at Houston Texans
Derrick Henry racked up 99 yards and a touchdown on the ground against the Seahawks in Week 16 on a workload of 19 carries. In terms of strict rushing upside, Henry is still amongst the better options in fantasy but that renders him dependent on the Titans overall performance to reach his ceiling because he still has limited passing game involvement. Henry has seen more than two targets in just one of his last seven games. Now he gets to face the Texans, who are not the same doormat rushing defense they have historically been but are also nothing particularly special when it comes to limiting opposing backs. Henry is still a great volume bet and projects as a borderline RB1 for fantasy championships.
Week 16 vs. Seattle Seahawks
Derrick Henry is coming off a miserable Week 15 performance when he managed only 10 total yards on 16 carries and four receptions. Those numbers rank amongst the worst individual games Henry has ever had in the NFL. It's fair to say it's highly unlikely we see another game with such stunning inefficiency from Henry this year, and he has a great spot to bounce back in Week 16 against a mediocre-at-best Seattle defense. Henry getting 20 opportunities on a day when he could not find any room to run ensures he will continue to see bellcow-level usage whenever game script allows it, and game script projects to be neutral this week with the Titans being small underdogs at home. Henry may seem tough to trust after the brutal showing last week, but he remains a solid RB2 with weekly RB1 upside due to his robust usage in the offense.
Week 15 vs. Houston Texans
Despite the Titans entering Week 14 as two-touchdown underdogs to the Dolphins, Henry managed to stay involved with the game being close and logged another 22 carries and 120 total yards to go along with a pair of rushing touchdowns. Henry has had a volatile age-29 season as he currently ranks 12th amongst RBs with 14.7 fantasy points per game, but as we all know his production is highly correlated with game script and he remains a solid RB1 in any game where the Titans lead or can keep the score close. The Texans' run defense is not the same doormat that it has been in recent years, but they have only improved to mediocre this season meaning Henry should have a great shot at returning RB1 numbers as we head into the fantasy playoffs.
Week 14 at Miami Dolphins
The Titans' backfield situation is well known at this point. Derrick Henry will still receive massive volume in any game where Tennessee has a positive or neutral game script, as evidenced by his 22 carries in Week 13 against the Colts (and that's with Henry missing snaps due to a concussion check). Tyjae Spears mixes in but is primarily a pass-catching specialist in games where the Titans are trailing. That poses a problem for Henry this week with the Titans traveling to Miami to face the Dolphins' high-powered offense. Henry is still a good bet for a touchdown should Tennessee get in close, but he faces a real risk of being game scripted out of the offense should the Titans fall behind quickly. Henry is a volatile RB2 for Week 14.
Week 13 vs. Indianapolis Colts
With game script predictably swinging back in his favor in Week 12, Derrick Henry trampled the lowly Panthers for 76 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 18 carries. Henry has had some volatile production this year, but it is highly correlated to game script and the Titans' team performance. The Titans are small underdogs against the Colts this week, but Indy is atrocious in limiting production by opposing backs as they rank as the third-best matchup in the NFL according to our schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed metric. With the game projected to be close and the matchup indicating the Titans should be able to run the ball with success, Henry finds himself back in the RB1 ranks for Week 13.
Week 12 vs. Carolina Panthers
Derrick Henry's volatile season continued in Week 11 when he busted to the tune of 44 scoreless yards on only 10 carries and two targets. Henry's level of involvement in the Tennessee offense is heavily reliant on game script, as Tyjae Spears typically absorbs a good portion of the receiving work. Henry does get a prime matchup this week when the Titans host the lowly Carolina Panthers and their poor run defense. Henry projects for solid efficiency this week, and game script shouldn't be an issue with as bad as the Panthers are playing right now. Henry should be locked into lineups as a high-upside RB2 this week.
Week 11 at Jacksonville Jaguars
Derrick Henry fell victim to a negative game script in Week 10 when he only managed 20 total yards on 12 touches. Rookie QB Will Levis has not been able to replicate his impressive debut effort over the past two weeks, which has taken a toll on the Titans' offense as a whole. Henry's lack of consistent passing game involvement puts him at risk of slow days when the Titans fall behind early, and that scenario will be a real risk this week when the Titans have to travel to Jacksonville to take on a Jaguars team that should be looking to bounce back after getting pummeled by the 49ers. The Jags boast an above-average run defense, and the combination of circumstances facing him this week knocks Henry into the RB2 ranks for fantasy.
Week 10 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Derrick Henry had a nice game against the Steelers last week, carrying the ball 17 times and catching three passes for a total of 102 yards and a touchdown. Henry is averaging 19.4 touches per game this season, although he’s only found the end zone four times on a struggling Titans team. He has been in double-digit fantasy points in both of Will Levis’ starts, however, so he should be solid for the rest of the season.
This week, Henry faces a tough Buccaneers defense that ranks fourth in aFPA to opposing running backs. Definitely consider Henry a lower-end RB1 option in a difficult matchup, but with his consistent workload and talent, you can’t ignore him completely. Start him every week, but temper expectations in this one.
Week 9 at Pittsburgh Steelers
Derrick Henry had a great game on Sunday when he saw 26 touches and racked up 122 total yards, but perhaps most encouraging for his fantasy prospects moving forward was Will Levis' strong NFL debut. Henry appeared to be at risk of a total structural collapse for the Tennessee offense following Ryan Tannehill's injury, but Levis looked far better in his one-game sample than Tannehill has all season. If Levis is going to be a long-term solution at QB, Henry will be one of the primary beneficiaries as he is still seeing the vast majority of the backfield touches for Tennessee. Levis, Henry, and company travel to Pittsburgh for a tough road game in Week 9, but the Steelers have been below-average in suppressing opposing RB production in 2023. It's best to think of Henry as a high-end RB2 for now, but if the Titans offense has another strong showing on Thursday we might have to adjust his fantasy standing rest of season.
Week 8 vs. Atlanta Falcons
Derrick Henry logged a RB5 finish in Week 7 by racking up 113 total yards and a touchdown on 14 touches. The efficiency is a great sign, but Henry could have tough treading ahead with Ryan Tannehill going down with an injury, setting up rookie second-round pick Will Levis to start on Sunday. Levis is a wild card having not played in a regular season game, but it's fair to project the Titans' offense to take a step back with a rookie under center. The Titans already weren't lighting up the scoreboard, and now the prospect of negative game scripts only increases. Add onto that the fact that the Falcons have been a difficult matchup for opposing running games this year, and Henry can only be considered a RB2 for Week 8.
