We Found 11 Sleepers by Comparing NFL ADP to 4for4 Rankings (w/ Downloadable CSVs)
Welcome to Part II of our series on unearthing draft day values by studying the differences in site ADP and 4for4 Draft Rankings. Part I discussed in detail the philosophy behind our study here and explored the values (and busts) specific to ADP data on Yahoo!.
Average Draft Position (ADP) is critical to savvy fantasy drafters. It is the key to finding value but also recognizing overpriced talent when compared and contrasted to your trusted 4for4 rankings.
That’s exactly one of the staples I wrote about in our tutorial on finding sleepers. 4for4’s Multi-Site ADP Tool is a great tool for subscribers and key to our study here. It provides ADP data from each major fantasy football outlet (ESPN, Yahoo!, NFL.com, CBS, and MFL).
In this series, we will study the differences between 4for4’s Standard and PPR Top-200 rankings (renowned in the industry for their accuracy) with each of the four other major ADP sources. We will cross-reference this “fantasy big data” with our rankings to unearth steals and busts.
This is Part II, as we study ADP data from NFL.com drafts:
NFL.com Average Draft Position Data
NFL.com offers drafts for multiple league sizes and both standard and PPR scoring. However, the rankings list used inside their draft application is the same regardless of scoring settings, including mock drafts that are greatly used to gather ADP data.
Those rankings inside the NFL.com draft rooms are NFL Fantasy’s official rankings, which are for standard scoring leagues. Therefore, the ADP is being sourced from draft picks derived from standard league rankings, even though the site also offers PPR rankings.
The starting lineup settings on NFL.com mock draft rooms also match those of 4for4.com’s default top-200 rankings settings: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, RB/WR, TE, K, DEF.
Comparing NFL.com ADP to our 4for4 rankings can shed light on which players in NFL.com leagues are not being properly evaluated, especially for PPR leagues.
Using our Multi-Site ADP tool makes finding current NFL.com ADP as simple as one click of the mouse, but I took it one step further below (at the end of the article), providing two tables that show the difference between NFL.com ADP and 4for4’s ranking of that player for both Standard and PPR leagues.
Let’s take a look though at some of the notable players in NFL.com Drafts that have more than a three-round ADP difference when compared to 4for4’s Standard rankings.
UPDATE: The below players were updated from NFL.com ADP data sourced from the end of August. Some peculiarities were discovered, including 12 kickers/defenses drafted in the first 90 overall picks. This tell us something very important: the ADP data is being compromised by too many autodraft positions that are filling starting positions before bench positions. What conclusions can we draw from this? Players on NFL.com drafted after the 7th round have ADPs that are much more indicative of NFL.com's site rankings (which are utilized in their draft rooms) than real ADP data. However, that is still useful information when compared to 4for4 rankings.
Standard Scoring: Overvalued
RB Jay Ajayi (Was -62 Aug. 5th; Now -34 )
The market has adjusted to Ajayi playing behind Arian Foster; however, we still feel he's being drafted 34 spots too soon. This is very much a product of the Dolphins signing Foster. It has pushed Ajayi's ranking down, but Ajayi’s ADP has not reacted to the Foster signing ... yet. Right now, Ajayi is being drafted at the beginning of the 5th round in NFL.com drafts. That is a huge difference between our current overall ranking of Ajayi that would put him in the 9th or 10th round, as our 112th ranked player overall.
QB Ben Roethlisberger (Was -41 Aug. 5th; Now -34)
Other than Tom Brady (whose 4for4 Top 200 ranking is affected by our only projecting his stats over 12 games), Roethlisberger is the worst QB value on NFL.com when compared to our rankings. On that site, drafters are taking Big Ben in the 4th round! That’s far too rich for our blood. He’s not even one of our top-five quarterbacks entering 2016. Our top-200 ranking puts him closer to the 8th round, but drafters waiting on a quarterback can wait even longer to find value at the position. That’s something our entire staff has noted all offseason.
TEs Greg Olsen (Was -36, Now -37), Ladarius Green (Was -37, Now -15), Tyler Eifert (Still -48), Gary Barnidge (Was -57, Now -59)
I found it really interesting that four tight ends found their way near the bottom of our list for worst values on NFL.com. All of these options are being drafted three rounds too early or more when compared to our rankings. On the flip side, Coby Fleener provided the best value among our five highest ranked TEs entering 2016. He can be had in the 10th round on NFL.com. Zach Ertz (12th round ADP) and Dwayne Allen (15th round ADP) also provide fantastic value at TE based on our rankings.
Continue reading for 11 values and eight flyers in NFL.com leagues and two downloadable CSVs (Standard and PPR) so you can find your own sleepers.