DFS Tight End Analysis: Week 6

DFS Tight End Analysis: Week 6

By TJ Hernandez (Associate Editor), on Oct 12, 2017

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TJ is a former full-time poker player who has been playing fantasy football for more than a decade. After online poker was outlawed, TJ ended his poker career and dedicated himself to fantasy football. His background in poker statistics and analytics translates to success in both daily and season-long fantasy football.

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DFS is a game of exploiting a lot of small edges, therefore all options at each position should be explored every week. Below is an analysis of this week’s tight ends on the main slate, including the upside and downside of the most viable players on the slate with explanations for how you might adjust your approach to the position depending on the game type. The chalk and any referenced ownership percentages are derived from the 4for4 DFS Ownership Projections.

Chalk 

With a few “free squares” available in DFS this week, there will be a lot of flexibility in lineup construction and that’s reflected in the tight end position. The two most popular plays of the week come at opposite ends of the pricing spectrum, so anyone looking to get away from the chalk will be able to do so with plenty of options without drastic changes in lineup composition.

  • Only one tight end has accounted for a higher percentage of team targets than Travis Kelce this year and the Chiefs are favored by 4.5 at home this week against the Steelers. Kelce leads all tight ends in red zone targets. With FanDuel’s scoring system slanted towards touchdown scorers, the Kansas City tight end is this week’s top-projected value on the main slate. Pittsburgh has allowed just one touchdown to tight ends this year and they rank in the top half of the league in schedule-adjusted fantasy points allowed (aFPA) to the position.
  • Playing a tight end against the Browns is becoming one of the most popular plays in DFS and the honor this week goes to Ryan Griffin. Cleveland has allowed a tight to score at least 14.9 PPR points in 4-of-5 games this year. Griffin and the Texans are in a great spot as a 10-point home favorite. Since C.J. Fiedorowicz’s injury, Griffin is averaging 5 targets per game, but he hasn’t seen more than 6 targets in a game, and he has caught just 2 balls in each of the last two games. Note that Griffin is priced as the TE6 on DraftKings’ main slate but is the TE26 on FanDuel.

Studs

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