FanDuel Thanksgiving Slate Cash & GPP Breakdown
The Thanksgiving slate has one game with a high total (Cowboys-Redskins, 52), one with a medium total (Steelers-Colts, 47), and one with a low total (Lions-Vikings, 42.5). Keep in mind that per Jonathan Bales, the second divisional meeting between two teams historically tends to be lower scoring than the first, and this is the second of two Lions-Vikings and Cowboys-Redskins meetings.
Here's my take on Cowboys-Redskins. According to Vegas Insider, 88% of the pubic bets are currently on the over of 52 as of this writing. I could be wrong, of course, but I suspect the over is the square side.
The Redskins are going on the road on a short week after playing a Sunday night game. Between the Redskins pouring 42 points on a hapless Packers defense on national TV and the public being in love with the 9-1 Cowboys, I suspect Vegas inflated the total for this game because it knew the public would still bang the over -- and so far, that is exactly what has happened. The keepaway Cowboys are still a thing -- they've allowed the third-fewest plays per game (60.0) this season, and the fewest over plays per game of any team in the league over their last three games (54.0). The Cowboys should be able to play keepaway in this one by running all over a Redskins defense that is allowing the second-highest yards per carry average in the league (4.59).
I think there is a good possibility Cowboys-Redskins goes under the Vegas total of 52 -- possibly way under -- and a large percentage of the field ends up drawing dead because they've sprinkled Redskins throughout their lineups. In my opinion, a lot of DFS players will be on the Redskins more so because they are affordable and simply "fit", rather than because any of them stand out as especially strong plays. That being said, if forced to choose, my favorite play on the Redskins would be DeSean Jackson ($5,900), who has the potential to swing GPP slates on one play.
Thanksgiving Slate Cash Game Overview
I would have liked Andrew Luck ($8,300) as the top option, as rostering Luck would have allowed us to get access to most of the Colts’ offensive production — he has accounted for 81 percent of their yardage and 74 percent of their TDs this season. Using Luck would have also allowed us to avoid any potential hiccups from Ben Roethlisberger ($8,500), who has very unfavorable road splits. However, with Luck out, the question becomes: is it necessary to roster Scott Tolzien ($5,000) in cash over Dak Prescott ($8,000), who has 17.48+ points in each of his last nine games, or even Kirk Cousins ($7,400), who has 18+ points in eight of his last nine?