41 ADP Risers & Fallers: Where to Target Them?

41 ADP Risers & Fallers: Where to Target Them?

By John Paulsen (Director of Forecasting), on Aug 26, 2016

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John was named the Most Accurate Fantasy Football Expert by FantasyPros for the 2010 and 2014 seasons, and has finished in the Top 6 in seven of the last eight years. Cumulatively, John has been the most accurate expert from 2010-17 while also winning the 2011 Fantasy Sports Trade Association award for the most accurate draft rankings. 

Follow John Paulsen on Twitter: @4for4_John.

Average Draft Position (ADP) data is a great tool, but it can be misleading this late in the draft season. There are players who are – for one reason or another – surging in the draft, and since ADP is historical, it may not accurately capture a player’s current stock. These players merit extra discussion, especially if we’re trying to target them on draft day.

Even identifying them takes some work. To that end, I compared MFL10 best ball ADP from August 7-14 to data from August 22-25. The MFL10 ADP user base is sharp, so owners drafting in typical “friends and family” leagues may find that players slip a bit further than the data below may show.

I ranked each player based on his difference in a percentage of his original ADP. I did this so we can look not only at the big movers but also the big movers relative to their original ADP. 

Note: Owners should always be aware of where the player is ranked at the site that hosts their league or draft. Many owners rely on site rankings to draft, so if a player is ranked a round higher at ESPN than his ADP at MFL, then he’s not likely to last that long.

The table shows the ADP data, and my observations are below. I’ll put their current ADP round in parenthesis to give readers an idea of where each player is currently being drafted. Owners can either plan to draft the player there or go a round or two earlier to ensure that they nab their man. These players are obviously rising, so it makes sense to pull the trigger a bit early if there isn’t better value on the board.

Continue reading for a table showing the top-40 risers and observations from John Paulsen on 27 risers and 14 fallers.

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